The Denver Nuggets (10-7) visit the Miami Heat (6-10) as favorites after Michael Porter Jr. put up 30 points in the Nuggets’ 117-113 victory over the Mavericks. The game airs on SUN at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, January 27, 2021. The over/under is set at .
The betting insights in this article reflect data from FanDuel sportsbook as of January 27, 2021, 1:07 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.
Nuggets vs Heat Betting Odds
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Injury Report as of January 27
Nuggets:
Greg Whittington: Out (Knee),
PJ Dozier: Out (Hamstring)
Heat:
Maurice Harkless: Out (Thigh),
Tyler Herro: Day To Day (Neck),
Chris Silva: Out (Hip),
Jimmy Butler: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Ankle),
Meyers Leonard: Out (Shoulder),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols)
Computer Picks
| Spread Pick | Heat (+5) |
|---|---|
| Prediction | Nuggets 114, Heat 111 |
The spread for this game suggested by the model (2.8 points) is slightly less than the 5-point edge FanDuel gives to the Nuggets, though the data still has them as the favorite.
Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.
Nuggets Key Players
| Name | GP | PTS | REB | ASST | STL | BLK | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 17 | 25.4 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Jamal Murray | 16 | 19.3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 7 | 18.4 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Monte Morris | 17 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| JaMychal Green | 13 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 |
Nuggets Player Props
- Nikola Jokic’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is posted at 7.5 assists, 1.8 assists lower than his season average of 9.3.
- Porter’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 1.5 shots lower than his season average of 3.0.
- Porter’s blocks prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 0.5 blocks lower than his season average of 1.0.
Heat Key Players
| Name | GP | PTS | REB | ASST | STL | BLK | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 14 | 20.7 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Tyler Herro | 10 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Goran Dragic | 14 | 15.9 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| Jimmy Butler | 6 | 15.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Duncan Robinson | 16 | 14.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 |
Heat Player Props
- Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the matchup is set at 32.5, 2.6 less than his season average of 35.1.
- Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.1 shots less than his season average of 3.6.
- Jimmy Butler’s steals prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 1.7 steals lower than his season average of 2.2.
Shooting Trends
- The Nuggets are shooting 47.9% from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 45.4% the Heat allow to opponents.
- In games Denver shoots higher than 45.4% from the field, it is 6-7 against the spread and 8-5 overall.
- Miami is 4-6-1 against the spread and 6-5 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 47.9% from the field.
- The Heat are shooting 47.4% from the field, -0.2% higher than the 47.6% the Nuggets’ opponents have shot this season.
- Miami is 4-4-1 against the spread and 6-3 overall when it shoots better than 47.6% from the field.
- This season, Denver has a 5-3 record against the spread and a 7-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 47.4% from the field.
- The Nuggets are hitting 37.3% of their three-point shots this season, 0.5% lower than the 37.8% the Heat allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Denver is 5-4 against the spread and 5-4 overall when it shoots better than 37.8% from distance.
- Miami is 4-4-1 against the spread while putting together a 4-5 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 37.3% from three-point range.
- The Heat are knocking down 34.9% of their shots from three-point range, which is 2.7 percentage points fewer than the 37.6% the Nuggets’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Miami has a 4-1-1 ATS record and is 5-1 straight-up when the team makes more than 37.6% of its three-point attempts.
- Denver has a 5-3 ATS record and a 7-1 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.9% from three-point distance.
- The Nuggets knock down 12.8 three-pointers per game this season, the same that the Heat give up.
- The Heat make the 14th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Nuggets allow the 24th-fewest makes from beyond the arc.
Nuggets vs Heat Stat Rankings
| Nuggets Rank | Nuggets AVG | Heat AVG | Heat Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 116.8 | Points Scored | 107.8 | 24th |
| 21st | 112.6 | Points Allowed | 112.2 | 20th |
| 7th | 45.6 | Rebounds | 41.1 | 30th |
| 4th | 11.6 | Off. Rebounds | 6.5 | 30th |
| 13th | 12.8 | 3pt Made | 12.8 | 14th |
| 3rd | 27.1 | Assists | 25.9 | 10th |
| 12th | 13.7 | Turnovers | 16.8 | 29th |
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