Nuggets vs Heat: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – January 27, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on January 27, 2021 - Last Updated on January 30, 2021

The Denver Nuggets (10-7) visit the Miami Heat (6-10) as favorites after Michael Porter Jr. put up 30 points in the Nuggets’ 117-113 victory over the Mavericks. The game airs on SUN at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, January 27, 2021. The over/under is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect data from FanDuel sportsbook as of January 27, 2021, 1:07 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Heat Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of January 27

Nuggets:
Greg Whittington: Out (Knee),
PJ Dozier: Out (Hamstring)

Heat:
Maurice Harkless: Out (Thigh),
Tyler Herro: Day To Day (Neck),
Chris Silva: Out (Hip),
Jimmy Butler: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Ankle),
Meyers Leonard: Out (Shoulder),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Heat (+5)
Prediction Nuggets 114, Heat 111

The spread for this game suggested by the model (2.8 points) is slightly less than the 5-point edge FanDuel gives to the Nuggets, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 17 25.4 11.9 9.3 1.9 0.6 1.1
Jamal Murray 16 19.3 3.8 4.3 1.0 0.3 2.1
Michael Porter Jr. 7 18.4 7.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 3.0
Monte Morris 17 11.5 2.4 3.2 0.8 0.4 1.2
JaMychal Green 13 11.2 6.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 2.2

Nuggets Player Props

  • Nikola Jokic’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is posted at 7.5 assists, 1.8 assists lower than his season average of 9.3.
  • Porter’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 1.5 shots lower than his season average of 3.0.
  • Porter’s blocks prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 0.5 blocks lower than his season average of 1.0.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Bam Adebayo 14 20.7 9.0 5.4 0.8 0.9 0.1
Tyler Herro 10 17.6 6.7 3.8 0.4 0.1 1.6
Goran Dragic 14 15.9 2.9 5.3 0.5 0.1 1.8
Jimmy Butler 6 15.8 5.5 5.3 2.2 0.7 0.0
Duncan Robinson 16 14.3 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.4 3.6

Heat Player Props

  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the matchup is set at 32.5, 2.6 less than his season average of 35.1.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.1 shots less than his season average of 3.6.
  • Jimmy Butler’s steals prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 1.7 steals lower than his season average of 2.2.

Shooting Trends

  • The Nuggets are shooting 47.9% from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 45.4% the Heat allow to opponents.
  • In games Denver shoots higher than 45.4% from the field, it is 6-7 against the spread and 8-5 overall.
  • Miami is 4-6-1 against the spread and 6-5 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 47.9% from the field.
  • The Heat are shooting 47.4% from the field, -0.2% higher than the 47.6% the Nuggets’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Miami is 4-4-1 against the spread and 6-3 overall when it shoots better than 47.6% from the field.
  • This season, Denver has a 5-3 record against the spread and a 7-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 47.4% from the field.
  • The Nuggets are hitting 37.3% of their three-point shots this season, 0.5% lower than the 37.8% the Heat allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Denver is 5-4 against the spread and 5-4 overall when it shoots better than 37.8% from distance.
  • Miami is 4-4-1 against the spread while putting together a 4-5 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 37.3% from three-point range.
  • The Heat are knocking down 34.9% of their shots from three-point range, which is 2.7 percentage points fewer than the 37.6% the Nuggets’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Miami has a 4-1-1 ATS record and is 5-1 straight-up when the team makes more than 37.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver has a 5-3 ATS record and a 7-1 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.9% from three-point distance.
  • The Nuggets knock down 12.8 three-pointers per game this season, the same that the Heat give up.
  • The Heat make the 14th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Nuggets allow the 24th-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Nuggets vs Heat Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Heat AVG Heat Rank
3rd 116.8 Points Scored 107.8 24th
21st 112.6 Points Allowed 112.2 20th
7th 45.6 Rebounds 41.1 30th
4th 11.6 Off. Rebounds 6.5 30th
13th 12.8 3pt Made 12.8 14th
3rd 27.1 Assists 25.9 10th
12th 13.7 Turnovers 16.8 29th

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