The UCF Knights (3-5) are expected to continue a four-game losing streak when they host the SMU Mustangs (7-2) as 4-point underdogs at 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, January 23, 2021 at CFE Arena. The game airs on ESPNU. The matchup’s over/under is set at 139.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 23, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Knights (+4)

The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.0 point) is much tighter than the 4-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mustangs, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Knights to cover.

Pick OU:
Over (139)

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.2 points of each other.

Prediction: SMU 70, UCF 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Mustangs this season is 74.9 points, 2.9 more points than their implied total of 72 points in Saturday’s game.
  • SMU has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (72) five times.
  • The Knights’ average implied point total on the season (71.8 points) is 3.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (68 points).
  • UCF has scored more than 68 points in two games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

SMU and UCF Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Mustangs 4-3-1 3-2-1 5-3
Knights 3-5 0-0 3-5

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Mustangs are shooting 46.5% from the field this season, 4.8 percentage points higher than the 41.7% the Knights allow to opponents.
  • SMU is 3-2-1 against the spread and 6-1 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 41.7% from the field.
  • UCF’s record is 2-4 against the spread and 2-4 overall when its opponents make more than 46.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Knights’ 40.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.3 percentage points higher than the Mustangs have allowed to their opponents (39.4%).
  • This season, UCF has put up a 2-2 record against the spread and a 2-2 record overall in games the team shoots above 39.4% collectively from the field.
  • This season, SMU has a 3-2-1 record against the spread and a 6-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 40.7% from the field.
  • The Mustangs shoot 35.9% from deep, 3.8% higher than the 32.1% the Knights allow to opponents.
  • SMU has a 3-1-1 record against the spread and a 6-0 record overall when the team hits more than 32.1% of its shots from three-point range.
  • UCF has put up a 2-3 against the spread while going 2-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.9% from deep.
  • The Knights shoot 33.6% from beyond the arc this season. That’s just 0.3 percentage points higher than the Mustangs have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.3%).
  • UCF is 2-2 straight-up and has a 2-2 ATS record when the team hits more than 33.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • SMU has a 4-0 straight-up record and a 3-0-1 ATS record this season when it knocks down more than 33.6% of its three-point shots.
  • The Mustangs make 8.2 three-pointers per game this season, 2.0 more makes per game than the Knights give up (6.2).
  • SMU is 4-1 against the spread and 5-0 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while UCF is 1-4 ATS and 1-4 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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