Alabama vs Mississippi State: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – January 23, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on January 23, 2021 - Last Updated on January 27, 2021

The No. 18 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-3) are big, 10.5-point favorites as they attempt to extend an eight-game win streak when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-6) on Saturday, January 23, 2021 at Coleman Coliseum. The game airs at 6:00 PM ET on SECN. The point total is 149 for the matchup.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 23, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Crimson Tide (-10.5)

The DraftKings line for this game has the Crimson Tide favored by 10.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (16.8 points). Put your money on the Crimson Tide.

Pick OU:
Under (149)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (145.0 points) slightly lower than the DraftKings over/under (149 points).

Prediction: Alabama 81, Mississippi State 64

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Crimson Tide’s average implied point total this season is 0.6 fewer points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (79.4 implied points on average compared to 80 implied points in this game).
  • Alabama has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (80) 11 times this season.
  • The 71.9-point average implied total on the season for the Bulldogs is 2.9 more points than the team’s 69-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Mississippi State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 69 points 11 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Alabama and Mississippi State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 10.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Crimson Tide 9-4-1 3-0 7-7
Bulldogs 7-7 2-1 8-6

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Crimson Tide make 43.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the Bulldogs have allowed to their opponents (41.1%).
  • Alabama has amassed an 8-1-1 record against the spread and an 11-0 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 41.1% from the field.
  • Mississippi State’s record is 5-5 against the spread and 8-3 overall when its opponents make more than 43.8% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bulldogs’ 45.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.3 percentage points higher than the Crimson Tide have given up to their opponents (40.2%).
  • This season, Mississippi State has a 7-3 record against the spread and a 9-2 record overall in games the team collectively shoots better than 40.2% from the field.
  • This season, Alabama has an 8-1 record against the spread and a 9-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 45.5% from the field.
  • The Crimson Tide shoot 35.9% from deep, 0.7% higher than the 35.2% the Bulldogs allow to opponents.
  • Alabama has collected an 8-0 straight-up record and a 7-0 record against the spread in games when the team hits more than 35.2% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Mississippi State is 5-3 overall and 4-3 against the spread when its opponents shoot higher than 35.9% from deep.
  • The Bulldogs’ three-point shooting percentage this season (35.8%) is just 6.0 percentage points higher than opponents of the Crimson Tide are averaging (29.8%).
  • Mississippi State is 5-6 against the spread and 7-4 overall when it shoots over 29.8% as a team from deep.
  • Alabama has a 6-2-1 ATS record and an 8-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.8% from distance.
  • The Crimson Tide’s 11 made three-pointers per game this season is 5.1 more made shots on average than the 5.9 per game the Bulldogs allow.
  • When Alabama makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 7-1-1 against the spread and 9-1 overall. When Mississippi State is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 5-4 ATS and 6-4 straight up.

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