Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (6-5) are underdogs against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (5-6) Thursday, January 14, 2021 at Ball Arena. The matchup tips off at 10:00 PM ET on TNT. The matchup has an over/under set at points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of January 13, 2021, 9:55 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of January 14

Nuggets:
Gary Harris: Day To Day (Personal),
Greg Whittington: Out (Left Knee),
Michael Porter Jr.: Out (Health and Safety Protocols)

Warriors:
Alen Smailagic: Out (Knee),
Klay Thompson: Out For Season (Right Achilles),
Marquese Chriss: Out For Season (Leg)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Nuggets (-5)
Total Pick Under (229)
Prediction Nuggets 117, Warriors 112

The model projects the Nuggets to win, just as William Hill does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (5.8 to 5).

The William Hill total for this game, 229 points, and the model’s projected total, 228.8 points, are only 0.2 points apart.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 11 24.3 11.0 10.5 1.8 0.6 1.3
Jamal Murray 10 19.7 2.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 2.4
Will Barton 11 11.6 4.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 1.5
Monte Morris 11 11.4 2.2 3.2 0.9 0.3 1.3
JaMychal Green 7 11.4 6.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.3

Nuggets Player Props

  • Jokic’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 38.5, 7.2 less than his season average of 45.7.
  • Jamal Murray’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.1 shots greater than his season average of 2.4.
  • Jokic’s steals prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.3 steals lower than his season average of 1.8.

Warriors Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Stephen Curry 11 27.8 5.1 6.4 1.2 0.2 4.1
Andrew Wiggins 11 17.9 4.9 2.5 0.5 1.8 2.2
Eric Paschall 10 12.1 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.7
Kelly Oubre Jr. 11 10.8 5.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9
James Wiseman 11 10.6 6.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 0.5

Warriors Player Props

  • Curry’s PRA prop total for the matchup is listed at 37.5, 1.8 lower than his season average of 39.3.
  • Draymond Green’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 17.5, 1.4 higher than his season average of 16.1.
  • Curry’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 3.5, 0.6 shots less than his season average of 4.1.
  • Andrew Wiggins’ blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.3 blocks lower than his season average of 1.8.

Shooting Trends

  • The Nuggets make 49.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is five percentage points higher than the Warriors have allowed to their opponents (44.5%).
  • Denver has a 5-5 record against the spread and a 5-5 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 44.5% from the field.
  • Golden State’s record is 5-4 against the spread and 5-4 overall when its opponents make more than 49.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Warriors have shot at a 43.7% clip from the field this season, 4.6 percentage points below the 48.3% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
  • Golden State has put together a 4-0 record against the spread and a 4-0 straight up record in games it shoots over 48.3% from the field.
  • When Denver’s opponents shoot greater than 43.7% from the field, it is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall.
  • The Nuggets’ 38.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Warriors have shot from beyond the arc (39%).
  • Denver has a 3-3 record against the spread and a 3-3 record overall when the team knocks down more than 39% of its three-point attempts.
  • Golden State is 4-2 against the spread while putting together a 4-2 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.4% from three-point distance.
  • The Warriors’ three-point shooting percentage this season (35.1%) is 3.9 percentage points lower than opponents of the Nuggets are averaging (39%).
  • Golden State is 3-0 against the spread and 3-0 overall when shooting above 39% as a team from three-point range.
  • Denver has a 4-1 ATS record and a 4-1 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 35.1% of its three-point shots.
  • The Nuggets knock down 13 three-pointers per game this season, just 0.5 fewer makes per game than the Warriors give up 13.5.
  • When Golden State makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 3-1-1 against the spread and 4-1 overall. When Denver is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 2-5 ATS and 2-5 straight up.
  • The Nuggets are the 14th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Warriors give up the 25th-fewest makes from deep.
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Nuggets vs Warriors Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Warriors AVG Warriors Rank
5th 116.5 Points Scored 112 13th
22nd 113.6 Points Allowed 115.5 25th
24th 41.6 Rebounds 44.2 13th
15th 10 Off. Rebounds 8.5 23rd
14th 13 3pt Made 13.5 10th
3rd 27.2 Assists 24.9 14th
17th 14.2 Turnovers 14.5 18th

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