Chiefs vs. Browns: NFL AFC Divisional Game Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 12, 2021 - Last Updated on January 15, 2021

The AFC Divisional round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs features a matchup of the Cleveland Browns (11-5) (who are underdogs) and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) on January 17, 2021 at 3:05 PM ET on CBS. The over/under is set at for the outing.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 12, 2021, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. Browns Odds

Computer Predictions

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Chiefs (-10.0) Under (56.0) Chiefs 32 Browns 21

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Chiefs Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has compiled a losing 7-9 record against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs are just 2-4 ATS when favored by at least 10.0 points.
  • Kansas City has played in eight games this year that went over the point total (50% of its opportunities).
  • The Chiefs, on average, score 3.4 more points per game this season (29.6) than the Browns allow (26.2).
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Kansas City is 8-1 and 5-4 against the spread.
  • When the Cleveland defense allows 26.2 points or fewer this year, the Browns have put together a 7-2 overall record and a 4-5 record against the spread.
  • Kansas City is just 3-5 against the spread in home games this year, and is 6-2 overall at home.

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Browns Betting Insights

  • Cleveland’s games have hit the over in nine out of 16 outings this season (56.2%).
  • Cleveland has a losing 6-10 record against the spread.
  • The Browns have a losing ATS record of 0-1 when playing as at least 10.0-point underdogs.
  • Cleveland is just 3-5 against the spread in away games this year, and is 5-3 overall on the road.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed 22.6 points per game this season, close to the same amount as the 25.5 the Browns have scored.
  • Cleveland is 7-1 overall and 4-4 against the spread when they score at least 25.5 points this season.
  • Kansas City is 9-0 overall and 6-3 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 22.6 points.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Chiefs 29.6 (6) 22.6 (10) 52.2
Browns 25.5 (14) 26.2 (21) 51.7

Chiefs Players to Watch

  • Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 4,740 yards while completing 66.3% of his passes (390-of-588), with 38 touchdowns and six interceptions in 15 games this year (316.0 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 63 times for 302 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 20.1 yards per game.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has taken 181 attempts for a team-leading 803 rushing yards (61.8 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns in 13 games. He’s also caught 36 passes for 297 yards (22.8 receiving yards per game) with one touchdown through the air.
  • Le’Veon Bell has 328 yards on 82 carries (29.8 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns over the course of 11 games.
  • Travis Kelce has hauled in 105 passes to lead the team with 1,416 yards with 11 touchdowns. He has been targeted 145 times and averages 94.4 yards per game over 15 outings.
  • Tyreek Hill’s statline this year shows 87 catches for 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns over 15 games. He puts up 85.1 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 134 times.
  • Mecole Hardman has caught 41 passes on 62 targets for 560 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 35.0 yards per game in 16 contests in 2020.
  • Chris Jones has notched a team-leading 7.5 sacks, while adding 3.0 TFL and 36 tackles over 15 games.
  • Daniel Sorensen has collected 92 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 15 games over the 2020 campaign.
  • Tyrann Mathieu has a team-high six interceptions and has tacked on 63 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and nine passes defended 15 in games this season.

Browns Players to Watch

  • Baker Mayfield has thrown for 3,563 yards while completing 62.8% of his passes (305-of-486), with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 16 games this year (222.7 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 54 times for 165 yards and one touchdown, averaging 10.3 yards per game.
  • Nick Chubb has taken 190 carries for a team-leading 1,067 rushing yards (88.9 yards per game) while scoring 12 touchdowns in 12 games.
  • Kareem Hunt has 841 yards on 198 carries (52.6 ypg), with six rushing touchdowns over the course of 16 games. He also has 38 catches for 304 yards (19.0 ypg) and five touchdowns.
  • Jarvis Landry has been targeted 101 times and has 72 catches to lead the team with 840 yards (52.5 ypg) and scored three touchdowns in 16 games this season.
  • Rashard Higgins’ statline this year shows 37 catches for 599 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. He averages 42.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 52 times.
  • Austin Hooper has caught 46 passes on 70 targets for 435 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 33.5 yards per game in 13 contests in 2020.
  • Myles Garrett has 12.0 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 10.0 TFL and 48 tackles over 16 games.
  • In 16 games over his 2020 campaign, B.J. Goodson has 91 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and two interceptions, and leads the team in both interceptions and tackles.
  • This season, Goodson leads the team with two interceptions and has added 91 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and five passes defended 16 in games.

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