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The Boston Celtics (5-3) visit the Miami Heat (3-3) as favorites after Jayson Tatum racked up 40 points in the Celtics’ 126-114 victory over the Raptors. The game airs on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, January 6, 2021. The matchup has an over/under set at points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of January 6, 2021, 1:06 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Celtics Betting Odds

Injury Report as of January 6

Heat:
Maurice Harkless: Day To Day (Arm)

Celtics:
Romeo Langford: Out (Right wrist),
Marcus Smart: Day To Day (Right Thumb),
Jeff Teague: Day To Day (Ankle),
Javonte Green: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Kemba Walker: Out (Left knee)

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Celtics (+2.5)

Pick OU:
Over (218)

Prediction:
Celtics 111 Heat 109
The model and DraftKings both have the Heat taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (1.9 points). Lean towards taking the Celtics.The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 1.7 points lower than the model projection.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Bam Adebayo 6 19.2 8.0 4.3 1.3 0.8 0.0
Tyler Herro 6 14.3 6.3 4.7 0.5 0.0 1.7
Goran Dragic 6 13.8 2.7 5.5 0.8 0.0 1.0
Avery Bradley 5 13.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.0 2.4
Duncan Robinson 6 11.2 4.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 3.0

Heat Player Props

  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 32.5, 1.0 higher than his season average of 31.5.
  • Goran Dragic’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 21.5, 0.5 lower than his season average of 22.0.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.5 shots higher than his season average of 3.0.
  • Adebayo’s steals prop over/under for the contest is set at 0.5, 0.8 steals lower than his season average of 1.3.

Celtics Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jaylen Brown 8 26.9 4.6 3.1 1.6 0.6 2.3
Jayson Tatum 8 26.3 7.6 4.0 1.0 1.0 3.4
Marcus Smart 7 12.6 2.3 6.7 1.6 0.9 2.3
Payton Pritchard 8 8.6 2.0 3.1 1.4 0.3 1.0
Tristan Thompson 7 8.3 8.7 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.0

Celtics Player Props

  • Jaylen Brown’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 30.5, 4.1 less than his season average of 34.6.
  • Marcus Smart’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 22.5, 0.9 greater than his season average of 21.6.
  • Tatum’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.9 shots lower than his season average of 3.4.
  • Jeff Teague’s steals prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 1.2 steals less than his season average of 1.7.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Heat have a 48.5% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.3% higher than the 47.2% of shots the Celtics’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Miami has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 3-1 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 47.2% from the field.
  • Boston is 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 48.5% from the field.
  • The Celtics’ 48.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.3 percentage points higher than the Heat have given up to their opponents (43.5%).
  • This season, Boston has a 4-3 record against the spread and a 5-2 record overall in games the team collectively shoots higher than 43.5% from the field.
  • This season, Miami has a 3-2 record against the spread and a 3-2 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 48.8% from the field.
  • The Heat shoot 36% from three-point range, 0.9% lower than the 36.9% the Celtics allow to opponents.
  • Miami has a 3-0 record against the spread and a 3-0 record overall when the team hits more than 36.9% of its three-point shots.
  • Boston is 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 36% from deep.
  • The Celtics’ three-point shooting percentage this season (40.2%) is 2.7 percentage points higher than opponents of the Heat are averaging (37.5%).
  • Boston is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 overall when the team makes more than 37.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 3-2 ATS record and a 3-2 straight-up record this season when it makes more than 40.2% of its three-point shots.
  • The Heat’s 12 made three-pointers per game this season are just 0.2 fewer made shots on average than the 12.2 per game the Celtics allow.
  • When Boston makes more threes than its opponents, it is 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 overall. When Miami is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 1-3 ATS and 1-3 straight up.
  • The Celtics are the 19th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Heat give up the 28th-fewest makes from deep.

Heat vs Celtics Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Celtics AVG Celtics Rank
27th 105.8 Points Scored 113.4 11th
8th 107.7 Points Allowed 112.5 20th
27th 41.3 Rebounds 43.9 21st
30th 5.5 Off. Rebounds 11.1 9th
20th 12 3pt Made 12.2 19th
7th 26 Assists 23.6 19th
30th 18.3 Turnovers 15.5 20th

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