Mavericks vs Heat: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – January 1, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on January 1, 2021

The Dallas Mavericks (1-3) host the Miami Heat (2-2) in a matchup of Southwest Division teams at American Airlines Center, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on Friday, January 1, 2021. The Mavericks are in the game, the first matchup between the teams this season. The over/under is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect data from FanDuel sportsbook as of January 1, 2021, 1:06 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Mavericks vs Heat Betting Odds

Injury Report as of January 1

Mavericks:
Maxi Kleber: Day To Day (Ankle),
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (Knee)

Heat:
Jimmy Butler: Day To Day (Ankle),
Kelly Olynyk: Day To Day (Left knee),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Right knee)

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Mavericks (-1)

Pick OU:
Under ()

Prediction:
Heat 116 Mavericks 106
The Mavericks are the bet in this matchup. They’re favored by 8.6 more points in the model than FanDuel (9.6 to 1).

Mavericks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Luka Doncic 61 28.8 9.4 8.8 1.0 0.2 2.8
Kristaps Porzingis 57 20.4 9.5 1.8 0.7 2.0 2.5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 71 15.8 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 2.9
Josh Richardson 55 13.7 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.7 1.5
Dorian Finney-Smith 71 9.5 5.7 1.6 0.6 0.5 1.6

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 58 19.9 6.7 6.0 1.8 0.6 0.5
Goran Dragic 59 16.2 3.2 5.1 0.7 0.2 2.1
Bam Adebayo 72 15.9 10.2 5.1 1.1 1.3 0.0
Kendrick Nunn 67 15.3 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.2 2.0
Tyler Herro 55 13.5 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.2 2.1

Shooting Trends

  • Last season, the Mavericks had a 46.2% shooting percentage from the field, which was 1.3% higher than the 44.9% of shots the Heat’s opponents hit.
  • In games Dallas shot better than 44.9% from the field, it went 29-15-2 against the spread and 33-14 overall.
  • Miami went 39-16-2 against the spread and 43-15 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 46.2% from the field.
  • The Heat shot 46.6% from the field, 0.5% higher than the 46.1% the Mavericks’ opponents shot last season.
  • Miami went 33-9-2 against the spread and 36-9 overall when it shot higher than 46.1% from the field.
  • When Dallas’ opponents shot above 46.6% from the field last season, it was 32-13 against the spread and 33-12 overall.
  • The Mavericks shot 36.7% from deep last season, two% higher than the 34.7% the Heat allowed to opponents.
  • Dallas had a 33-17-2 record against the spread and a 36-16 record overall when the team connected on more than 34.7% of its three-point shots.
  • Miami put up a 41-17-3 against the spread while going 46-15 overall in games last season when its opponents shot higher than 36.7% from deep.
  • The Heat shot 37.4% from three-point distance last season. That’s 1.9 percentage points higher than the Mavericks allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35.5%).
  • Miami went 41-18-3 ATS and 48-14 overall when the team made more than 35.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Dallas had a 29-17-2 ATS record and a 37-12 straight-up record in games last season it shot better than 37.4% from three-point range.
  • The Mavericks hit 15 three-pointers per game last season, 1.7 more made shots on average than the 13.3 per game the Heat gave up.
  • When Dallas made more threes than its opponents last season, it went 31-25-3 against the spread and 36-23 overall. When Miami was out-shot from deep by its opponents, it was 15-29-1 ATS and 18-28 straight up.
  • The Mavericks were the second-best three-point shooting team in the NBA last season, while the Heat allowed the 24th-fewest makes from deep.

Mavericks vs Heat Stat Rankings

Mavericks Rank Mavericks AVG Heat AVG Heat Rank
3rd 117 Points Scored 111.6 15th
16th 113.1 Points Allowed 108.9 10th
6th 46.7 Rebounds 43.7 14th
11th 10.3 Off. Rebounds 8.3 29th
2nd 15 3pt Made 13.3 6th
14th 24.4 Assists 25.7 5th
1st 12.1 Turnovers 13.6 15th

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