Buccaneers vs. Falcons: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 17

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on December 28, 2020

Oddsmakers give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5) the edge when they host the Atlanta Falcons (4-11) on Sunday, January 3, 2021 in a matchup between NFC South foes at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay is favored by . The point total is set at for the contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 28, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds

Computer Pick

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Buccaneers (-6.5) Over (50.5) Buccaneers 33 Falcons 18

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Buccaneers Betting Insights

  • Tampa Bay is 4-3 against the spread in home games this year, and is 4-3 overall at home.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-7 against the spread.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS when favored by at least 6.5 points.
  • Tampa Bay’s games have hit the over in eight out of 15 outings this season (53.3%).
  • The Buccaneers, on average, score 5.2 more points per game this season (29.9) than the Falcons allow (24.7).
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Tampa Bay is 7-0 and 5-2 against the spread.
  • When the Atlanta defense allows 24.7 points or fewer this year, the Falcons have pieced together a 3-6 overall record and a 4-5 record against the spread.

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Falcons Betting Insights

  • Most of Atlanta’s games this year — nine out of 15 — have finished under the point total (60%).
  • Atlanta has put together a losing 7-8 record against the spread this season.
  • Atlanta has a 4-3 record against the spread on the road this year, and is 2-5 overall in away games.
  • The Buccaneers defense has allowed 21.9 points per game this season, close to the same amount as the 24.6 the Falcons have scored.
  • Atlanta is 4-4 overall and 6-2 against the spread when they score at least 24.6 points this season.
  • When Tampa Bay allows opposing offenses to put 21.9 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 6-1 overall and 6-1 against the spread.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Buccaneers 29.9 (5) 21.9 (8) 51.7
Falcons 24.6 (17) 24.7 (19) 49.3

Buccaneers Players to Watch

  • Tom Brady leads the team with 4,234 passing yards (282.3 yards per game) and has a 65.9% completion percentage this year (375-of-569) while throwing 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 15 games.
  • Leonard Fournette has taken 92 attempts for a team-leading 354 rushing yards (29.5 yards per game) while scoring six touchdowns in 12 games. He’s also caught 34 passes for 219 yards (18.3 receiving yards per game).
  • Ke’Shawn Vaughn has 109 yards on 26 carries (12.1 ypg), with zero rushing touchdowns over the course of nine games.
  • This season, Mike Evans has 67 catches (on 105 targets) to lead the team with 960 yards (64.0 per game) while scoring 13 touchdowns in 15 games.
  • Chris Godwin’s statline this year shows 60 grabs for 707 yards and five touchdowns over 11 games. He puts up 64.3 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 77 times.
  • Over 15 games in 2020, Rob Gronkowski has caught 43 passes on 73 targets for 594 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 39.6 receiving yards per game.
  • Jason Pierre-Paul has 9.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also racked up 6.0 TFL, 52 tackles, and two interceptions over 15 games.
  • In 15 games over the 2020 campaign, Devin White has collected 140 tackles, 15.0 TFL, and nine sacks and leads the team in tackles.
  • Mike Edwards has intercepted two passes to lead the team while adding nine tackles and five passes defended 15 over games.

Falcons Players to Watch

  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 4,316 yards while completing 64.9% of his passes (378-of-582), with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 15 games this year (287.7 yards per game).
  • Todd Gurley II has churned out a team-high 660 rushing yards (47.1 yards per game) and scored nine touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Brian Hill has 371 yards on 91 carries (24.7 ypg), with one rushing touchdown over the course of 15 games.
  • Calvin Ridley has been targeted 131 times and has 82 catches to lead the team with 1,322 yards (94.4 ypg) while scoring nine touchdowns in 14 games this season.
  • Julio Jones’ statline this year shows 51 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns over the course of nine games. He puts up 85.7 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 68 times.
  • Russell Gage has totaled 695 yards on 63 passes with three touchdowns in 2020, averaging 46.3 yards per game on 99 targets in 15 contests.
  • Deion Jones has 4.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also racked up 8.0 TFL, 102 tackles, and two interceptions over 15 games.
  • Foyesade Oluokun has collected 108 tackles, 4.0 TFL, three sacks, and two interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 14 games over the 2020 campaign.
  • Blidi Wreh-Wilson has a team-high three interceptions and has tacked on seven tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four passes defended 14 in games this season.

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