The penultimate Sunday Night Football matchup of the 2020 NFL season takes place at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisc. The Green Bay Packers (11-3) host the Tennessee Titans (10-4) for the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. Green Bay needs a win or a tie to claim the top seed in the NFC and a first-round bye; Tennessee is trying to secure its first AFC South title since 2008. Below, we’ll make our betting picks for the moneyline, spread, and over/under based on the odds and lines at the top US sportsbooks as the Titans take on the Packers.
This will be the first meeting between the two since 2016. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel will face his former offensive coordinator in Matt LaFleur, who’s in his second year at the helm of the Packers. The Packers clinched a second straight NFC North crown while winning four straight games, including a 24-16 victory over the Carolina Panthers last Saturday night. The Titans enter Week 16 off of back-to-back 21-point wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. Green Bay will visit the rival Chicago Bears in Week 17; Tennessee stays on the road to play the AFC South rival Houston Texans.
The Packers are 3- or 3.5-point home favorites and this game features the highest Over/Under of Week 16 at 56 projected points. Betting advice will be offered as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks are made with confidence in matchup advantages and at odds resembling those listed at the time of writing. Leans will be advised in anticipation of the lines moving in a certain direction or may hinge on injury news.
Titans at Packers odds
Titans at Packers picks: Moneyline
Both teams come into their second-to-last game of the 2020 season with a top-ranked offense and middling defense. Green Bay and Tennessee are first and second, respectively, in Pro Football Focus’ offensive grades, and second and third, respectively, in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA. Conversely, they’re 15th and 13th, respectively, in PFF’s defensive grades, and 18th and 28th, respectively, in FO’s defensive DVOA.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is just 1-2 against the Titans in his career but against much different rosters. He’s also second by DraftKings Sportsbook‘s MVP futures odds at +400. He leads the NFL with 40 touchdown passes. His quarterback rating of 118.0 and QBR of 83.5 are also best in the league. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has a career-high 31 passing touchdowns and another four scores on the ground. He has led four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives; both figures are tops in the league.
Tennessee is tied for first with a plus-12 turnover differential on the year; Green Bay is plus-5 in the turnover column. The two teams share top spot with just nine giveaways through 14 games. Despite being led by rushing leader RB Derrick Henry, the Titans are just 26th in time of possession per game, while the Packers are No. 1 in clock control.
Back the superior quarterback in Rodgers and the Packers as modest home favorites on the moneyline. Temperatures are expected to hover around freezing and there are flurries in the forecast, so the Packers will have a rare 2020 home-field advantage over the Titans.
The pick: PACKERS (-182 or better)
Titans at Packers picks: Against the spread
The 3- or 3.5-point line is the smallest number by which the Packers have been favored over their last four games. They’re 4-0 straight up but just 2-2 against the spread in those games, but all four spreads closed at 8 points or more. The Titans were favored in each of their last three games in which time they went 2-1 straight up and ATS. They’re 3-1 ATS as underdogs and covered by an average of 11.8 points per game.
Green Bay has seemingly struggled to put its foot down on opponents and run up the score but is still 8-6 ATS. It wins by 6.8 PPG and covers by 1.7 PPG. Tennesse, 7-7 ATS, wins by 5.4 PPG and covers by an extra 2.5 PPG. The Titans covered and won outright in all three games in which they were underdogs of 3 or more points.
The Packers’ ability to control the clock and Rodgers’ advantage in late-game situations makes Green Bay the pick on a modest line. We can wait this out; however, with the line already dropping from an opening number of 4 points. The Titans are receiving the larger share of the betting action, so we may be able to get this at two and a hook for the Packers.
The lean: PACKERS (-3 or better)
Titans at Packers picks: Over/Under (total)
The Packers and Titans are second and third, respectively in yards per play, and first and second, respectively, in points per play. Defensively, they’re both in the bottom half of the league in yards per play and points per play allowed. They’re both in the bottom-third in pressure rate. The Packers’ offensive line is best in the NFL in pressures allowed and Pass Block Win Rate, while the Titans have fewer sacks than any other team through 14 games.
Both quarterbacks are playing at an elite level and should have plenty of time to throw Sunday night. Tennessee has played to a higher percentage of Overs than all teams but the Las Vegas Raiders, as the two share a 10-3-1 record against the Over/Under. Green Bay is 7-7 against projected totals. The Titans and Packers play to averages of 7.0 and 4.4 points per game above the line.
Still, we’re taking the under. Both teams take excellent care of the football so there should be no defensive scores and few short-field situations expected. The marquee matchup and primetime TV spot combine to make this the highest point projection on the 16-game Week 16 slate. It will be best to wait this one out in hopes of allowing the line to rise a bit higher closer to kickoff.
The lean: UNDER (56 or better)