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Oddsmakers give the Buffalo Bills (11-3) the edge when they visit the New England Patriots (6-8) on Monday, December 28, 2020 in a matchup between AFC East opponents at Gillette Stadium. Buffalo is favored by . An over/under of is set in the game.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 22, 2020, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Computer Predictions

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Patriots (+6.5) Over (45.5) Bills 26 Patriots 22

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Bills Betting Insights

  • Most of Buffalo’s games this year — 10 out of 14 — have hit the over (71.4%).
  • Buffalo has a 4-3 record against the spread on the road this year, and is 5-2 overall in away games.
  • Buffalo is 9-5 against the spread.
  • The Bills have an even ATS record of 1-1 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.
  • The Bills, on average, score 7.6 more points per game this season (29.1) than the Patriots allow (21.5).
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Buffalo is 6-1 and 6-1 against the spread.
  • New England is 5-1 overall and 5-1 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 21.5 points.

Get more NFL betting picks and tips from the PlayPicks staff HERE

Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England has a losing 6-8 record against the spread.
  • The Patriots have an even ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs.
  • Just 10 of New England’s 14 games this year have gone over the point total (28.6% of its outings).
  • The Patriots have averaged 3.7 fewer points per game this season (20.6) than the Bills have allowed (24.3).
  • New England is 5-2 overall and 5-2 against the spread when they score at least 20.6 points this season.
  • Buffalo is 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 24.3 points.
  • New England is 4-2 against the spread in home games this year, and is 4-2 overall at home.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Bills 29.1 (5) 24.3 (16) 53.4
Patriots 20.6 (27) 21.5 (7) 42.1

Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 4,002 yards while completing 68.7% of his passes (351-of-511), with 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 14 games this year (285.9 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 96 times for 382 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 27.3 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has taken 143 attempts for a team-leading 643 rushing yards (45.9 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns in 14 games. He’s also caught 35 passes for 247 yards (17.6 receiving yards per game).
  • In 11 games in 2020, Zack Moss has rushed for 416 yards on 97 carries (37.8 ypg), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • This season, Stefon Diggs has 111 catches (on 149 targets) to lead the team with 1,314 yards (93.9 per game) with five touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Cole Beasley’s statline this year shows 79 catches for 950 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. He puts up 67.9 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 102 times.
  • Gabriel Davis has caught 30 passes on 52 targets for 459 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 32.8 yards per game in 14 contests in 2020.
  • Mario Addison has registered a team-leading 5.0 sacks, while adding 7.0 TFL and 25 tackles over 14 games.
  • Jordan Poyer has collected 113 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 14 games over the 2020 campaign.
  • Tre’Davious White has a team-high three interceptions and has tacked on 57 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 11 passes defended 13 in games this season.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Cam Newton has thrown for 2,381 yards while completing 65.9% of his passes (216-of-328), with five touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 14 games this year (170.1 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 122 times for 489 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 34.9 yards per game.
  • Sony Michel has 304 yards on 53 carries (33.8 ypg), with one rushing touchdown over the course of nine games.
  • This season, Jakobi Meyers has 49 catches (on 68 targets) to lead the team with 616 yards (51.3 per game) with zero touchdowns in 12 games.
  • Damiere Byrd’s statline this year shows 45 catches for 590 yards and one touchdown over the course of 14 games. He averages 42.1 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 70 times.
  • James White has caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 321 yards and zero touchdowns, averaging 26.8 yards per game in 12 contests in 2020.
  • Chase Winovich has registered a team-leading 3.5 sacks, while adding 4.0 TFL, 37 tackles, and one interception over 14 games.
  • Adrian Phillips has racked up 99 tackles, 7.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 14 games over the 2020 campaign.

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