Chiefs vs. Falcons: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 16

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on December 22, 2020

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) are favorites as they attempt to continue their nine-game winning streak in a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (4-10) on Sunday, December 27, 2020 at Arrowhead Stadium. The point total is set at for the game.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 21, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds

Computer Predictions

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Chiefs (-10.5) Under (53.0) Chiefs 35 Falcons 17

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Chiefs Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has put together a losing 6-7 record against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs have a split ATS record of 2-2 when favored by at least 10.5 points.
  • Kansas City’s games have gone under the point total in seven out of 13 opportunities this season (53.8%).
  • The Chiefs have put an average of 31.1 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 5.9 more than the 25.2 the Falcons have surrendered in each contest.
  • In games where Kansas City score at least 31.1 points this season, they are 8-1 overall and 4-4 against the spread.
  • When the Atlanta defense allows 25.2 points or fewer this year, the Falcons have pieced together a 3-5 overall record and a 3-4 record against the spread.
  • Kansas City’s record against the spread in home games this year is an even 3-3, and its record at home overall is 5-1.

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Falcons Betting Insights

  • Just seven of Atlanta’s 13 games this year have gone over the point total (46.2% of its opportunities).
  • Atlanta has compiled a losing 6-7 record against the spread this season.
  • Atlanta has a 3-2 record against the spread on the road this year, and is 2-4 overall in away games.
  • The Falcons have averaged 3.3 more points this season (25.4) than the Chiefs have allowed (22.1).
  • In games where Atlanta scores at least 25.4 points this season, they are 3-3 overall and 5-1 against the spread.
  • When Kansas City allows opposing offenses to put 22.1 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Chiefs 31.1 (2) 22.1 (8) 53.2
Falcons 25.4 (15) 25.2 (18) 50.6

Chiefs Players to Watch

  • Patrick Mahomes II leads the team with 4,462 passing yards (318.7 yards per game) and has a 67.3% completion percentage this year (366-of-544) while throwing 36 touchdowns and five interceptions in 14 games. He also has 281 rushing yards on 60 carries with two touchdowns, averaging 20.1 yards per game.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has ran for a team-leading 803 yards on 181 attempts (61.8 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns in 13 games. He also averages 22.8 receiving yards per game, grabbing 36 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown.
  • Le’Veon Bell has 298 yards on 75 carries (29.8 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns over the course of 10 games.
  • This season, Travis Kelce has 98 catches (on 132 targets) to lead the team with 1,318 yards (94.1 per game) while scoring 10 touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Tyreek Hill has added 1,211 yards on 83 grabs with 15 touchdowns. He has been targeted 128 times and puts up 86.5 receiving yards per game in 14 matchups this year.
  • Over 14 games in 2020, Mecole Hardman has caught 36 passes on 54 targets for 511 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 36.5 receiving yards per game.
  • Chris Jones has 6.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also racked up 2.0 TFL and 35 tackles over 13 games.
  • Daniel Sorensen has totaled 85 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 14 games over the course of the 2020 campaign.
  • Tyrann Mathieu has intercepted six passes to lead the team while adding 62 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and nine passes defended 14 over games.

Falcons Players to Watch

  • This year, Matt Ryan has recorded 4,016 passing yards (286.9 yards per game) while going 351-for-547 (64.2% completion percentage) and throwing 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 14 games.
  • Todd Gurley II has picked up a team-high 644 rushing yards (49.5 yards per game) and scored nine touchdowns in 13 games.
  • Brian Hill has 335 yards on 84 carries (23.9 ypg), with one rushing touchdown over the course of 14 games.
  • This season, Calvin Ridley has 77 catches (on 122 targets) to lead the team with 1,192 yards (91.7 per game) with nine touchdowns in 13 games.
  • Julio Jones’ statline this year shows 51 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns over nine games. He averages 85.7 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 68 times.
  • Russell Gage has totaled 672 yards on 59 passes with three touchdowns in 2020, averaging 48.0 yards per game on 94 targets in 14 contests.
  • Deion Jones has notched a team-leading 4.5 sacks, while adding 8.0 TFL, 94 tackles, and two interceptions over 14 games.
  • In 13 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, Foyesade Oluokun has racked up 102 tackles, 4.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception and leads the team in tackles.
  • This season, Blidi Wreh-Wilson leads the team with three interceptions and has added seven tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four passes defended 13 in games.

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