Time is running out for teams trying to make playoff pushes. With just two weeks left after this week in the NFL regular season, fringe-playoff teams like Minnesota, Arizona, Baltimore, and Chicago are in panic mode. Teams like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans are also clamoring to make the top seed in their conferences– the only team that gets a first-round bye this year. In desperation time, players can put up some unbelievable performances. This edition of NFL prop picks is an all-over slate.
In this article we’ll take a look at some of the most intriguing prop picks for Week 15’s action. There’s plenty of exciting matchups to choose from.
Player Prop Picks
Jared Goff: OVER 265.5 passing yards vs Jets (-110)
Some notable passing totals that the Jets have allowed this season: 369 yards (Kyler Murray, 32.7% above average), 446 yards (Patrick Mahomes, 27.4% above average), 274 yards (Cam Newton, 33.9% above average), 347 yards (Justin Herbert, 16.2% above average), and 368 yards (Derek Carr, 30.1% above average). Basically, the Jets are bleeding passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. They rank last in pass defense DVOA, last in PFF’s pass defense grades, and last in dropback EPA allowed per play.
The Rams are top-10 in the NFL in rush percentage and 12th in rush yard percentage (compared to total yardage). However, the Jets have fielded an excellent rush defense this season, ranking fourth in yards per carry allowed, first in run stop rate, and fourth in PFF’s rush defense grades. Sean McVay is one of the best adjusters and play callers in the NFL; the ball is going to be in Goff’s hands plenty this game.
Jonathan Taylor: OVER 77.5 rushing yards vs Texans (-110)
After a sluggish start, injury battles, and rumors of being in the doghouse with the coaching staff, Jonathan Taylor is finally looking like the superstar rookie he was thought to be. Over his last three games, Taylor has ripped off 90, 91, and 150 yards consecutively. This week, he gets one of the NFL’s worst run defenses– Houston. The Texans are 31st in rush EPA per play allowed and 31st in run defense, per PFF.
Another key metric that will ensure Taylor gets plenty of work: Houston is 31st in time of possession this season. Their defense is on the field for a majority of the game, meaning teams consistently bang out prolonged drives filled with first downs (thanks to a third-down defense that ranks 25th in the league). Just two weeks ago, Taylor picked up 91 yards on this same Texans defense. To say anything different will happen this time around is foolhardy.
Alvin Kamara: OVER 37.5 receiving yards vs Chiefs (-150)
Since Taysom Hill assumed the starting duties for the Saints, Alvin Kamara’s receiving totals dropped like a rock; through Week 10 (under Drew Brees), Kamara averaged 72 receiving yards on 8.9 targets per game. From Weeks 11-14, Kamara averaged 12.8 receiving yards on just four targets per game. Drew Brees is slated to return against the Chiefs after breaking 11 of his ribs. Because Brees will likely still be protecting his midsection, he’ll be quick to get the ball out of his hands to avoid being hit. That translates to far more targets for Kamara.
Add on the fact that Kansas City has given up the third most receiving yards to running backs this season and the likelihood that they are going to keep a fast pace and score often (forcing Brees to throw more), and you have a perfect storm for a comeback game for Alvin Kamara.