A lot rides on Week 14 of the NFL season. Division and playoff races are in full swing, teams are making a last-second push, and others are falling out of competition. The Buccaneers and Vikings are battling to stay in the playoff picture, with Tampa being the NFC’s current sixth seed and Minnesota sitting in the final seventh spot. The Cardinals’ playoff hopes are on the line against the Giants, who are clinging to first place in the dreary NFC East.
The Colts and Raiders square up with the AFC’s seventh seed on the line, with Indianapolis currently holding the spot. The Dolphins may have the toughest route to stay alive in the playoffs (currently the sixth seed) and they begin that stretch with the Chiefs this week. Denver and Houston are on the brink of elimination– a loss will remove them from the race.
In this article we’ll take a look at some of the most intriguing prop picks for Week 14’s action. There’s plenty of exciting matchups to choose from.
Player Prop Picks
Tyreek Hill: UNDER 77.5 receiving yards vs Dolphins (-110)
Hill is just one week removed from three straight games of 100+ receiving yards, capped by the monster 269 receiving-yard day against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay strayed from their usual zone defense for just one quarter as they left their top corner, Carlton Davis, all alone man-to-man with Hill. The 4.53-40 corner was torched for 200+ yards in the first quarter. The Dolphins run man defense the 10th most in the league, setting up Hill for another monster day, right?
Not exactly. Instead of Davis (PFF’s 40th-graded corner), Tyreek Hill will see Byron Jones. Though Xavien Howard is the Dolphins’ clear-best corner, his 4.58 40-time would leave him as helpless as Davis was two weeks ago. Byron Jones clocked a reported 4.36 40 yard dash and a 6.78 three cone, which should allow him to keep pace with Hill.
Davante Adams: OVER 7.5 receptions vs Lions (+110)
Last time Green Bay played Detroit (Week 2), Aaron Jones picked up 262 combined yards and three total touchdowns en route to a 42-21 win. Davante Adams exited the game in the first quarter with an injury after catching all three of his targets for 36 yards. The majority of Jones’ work in Week 2 came once Adams left, including all three of his touchdowns. This time out, it’s a different story.
The Lions are giving up the sixth-most catches to receivers this season and the fourth-most receiving yards. Aaron Rodgers has been held under 280 passing yards just three times this year: twice against teams in the top eight in defensive DVOA (Tampa Bay, Chicago) and once against Detroit in that Week 2 matchup. With no true lockdown corner– PFF’s highest-graded Lions corner sits just 72nd– Davante Adams is poised for a huge outing.
Patrick Mahomes: OVER 305.5 passing yards vs Dolphins (-110)
The Dolphins’ defense this seen has been spectacular and led them to 8-4– one of their best marks in years. They’re sixth in pass defense DVOA, 10th in sacks recorded, and 12th in PFF’s overall defense grades. The key metric that could be their undoing this week: they lead the league in blitz rate.
Patrick Mahomes has a higher passer rating against the blitz than when four are rushed and has carved up blitzing teams his entire career. This season, Mahomes tossed for 385 yards and four touchdowns against the Ravens, 416 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets, and 462 yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers– all teams that fall inside the top six in blitz rate this year.
Without a clear book on how to slow down Mahomes and the Chiefs, Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer may just stick to his guns. Miami has also had a clear split between the league’s best passers versus not; Josh Allen threw for 411 yards, Russell Wilson picked up 343 yards through the air, and Kyler Murray threw for 264 yards. It’s a recipe for a signature Mahomes monster outing.