Welcome to the Monday Night Football betting breakdown, where each week I’ll provide a detailed betting overview of the upcoming Monday Night Football game utilizing moneyline, points spread and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. I’ll also highlight at least one player- or game-based prop each week that I feel has profit potential.
The 2020 Week 12 MNF showcase consists of an NFC battle between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The game is a rematch of last January’s NFC Wild Card Game, a contest in which the Seahawks prevailed by a 17-9 score in Philadelphia. In that game, Russell Wilson led the way for the visitors with 325 passing yards and a touchdown, with seven of his completions and 160 of those yards compiled by then-rookie D.K. Metcalf.
The Seahawks check into the contest with a 7-3 record, good for a tie record-wise with the Rams atop the NFC West standings. Then, even with a much uglier 3-6-1 mark, the Eagles are in almost as good a position in the NFC East. The Washington Football Team heads into the weekend leading the division at 4-7, but Philly is just one back in both the win and loss column despite having dropped two straight.
All betting takes will be classified as a “pick” or “lean”, with considerations such as relevant injuries, past betting trends and recent performances of each team leading up to the game factoring in.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup – including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to MNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Monday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
This game is an interesting study in significantly unbalanced defenses. Each unit’s weaknesses give this contest a chance to remain relatively close throughout.
For the Seahawks, which have leaned heavily on Wilson’s prolific right arm in most games this season, the game plan Monday night could see more of a return to a voluminous ground attack. On paper, that appears to be the likelier path to consistent success for Seattle’s offense. To begin with, primary back Chris Carson appears to have a solid chance of returning from a four-game absence due to a foot injury. Then, Philadelphia is allowing 142.8 rushing yards per home game, along with a bloated 4.7 yards per carry.
In turn, Seattle’s offensive line is facilitating an impressive 4.54 adjusted line yards and 4.3 RB yards per carry. Both figures rank in the top half of the league. Even if Carson does miss, Carlos Hyde is well-equipped to pick up the slack, as he demonstrated with 95 total yards and a rushing TD on 16 touches versus the Cardinals in Week 11. The ability to consistently move the ball on the ground becomes particularly crucial when considering the Eagles are allowing just 196.8 passing yards per home contest and 5.9 yards per attempt. The latter number implies coverage schemes will be set up to cut off the path to the big plays both Tyler Lockett and Metcalf have thrived on this season.
The Eagles offense essentially has the opposite outlook against a Seahawks unit that has been woefully inept at slowing down opposing air attacks. Seattle is allowing an NFL-high 355.0 passing yards and NFC-high 71.2 percent completion rate per road game. The one caveat for Philly is that it’s not exactly set up to fully exploit this weakness. Wentz is completing a career-low 58.4 percent of his attempts and has already tied a career high with 14 interceptions. A major culprit in those surprising numbers has been a turnstile-like offensive line that’s given up an NFL-high 40 sacks. In turn, Seattle is averaging 2.6 sacks per road game, ranking the ‘Hawks in the top 10.
If the Eagles can’t consistently find success through the air, their outlook gets notably bleaker. The Seahawks have been the NFL’s ultimate funnel defense. They’ve offset their aforementioned issues in the secondary by yielding a miserly 91.2 rushing yards per game, the fourth fewest in the NFL. Seattle also ranks in the top 10 in RB yards per carry (3.66) and adjusted line yards per carry (3.93) allowed. And, just as the Eagles secondary has proven capable of limiting big passing plays over the top, the Seahawks have been adept at preventing the back-breaking runs Philadelphia’s Miles Sanders is very capable of – Seattle has surrendered the seventh-fewest open-field yards (0.43) and ninth-fewest second-level yards (1.05) per carry.
While this has the makings of a relatively close contest, I see Seattle’s superior QB play as likely making the difference. However, I’d draw the line at taking this wager at -200.
The Lean: Seahawks moneyline (-200 or better)
MNF Point Spread
The Seahawks are 6-4 (60.0 percent) against the spread this season, including 2-3 (40.0 percent) as a road team and 4-3 (57.1 percent) in conference matchups.
The Eagles are 3-7 (30.0 percent) against the spread this season, including 2-3 (40.0 percent) as a home team and 2-4 (33.3 percent) in conference matchups.
Conventional wisdom usually dictates going with the moneyline pick to cover. But, that naturally depends on the number. If you can get at least 6.0 points for the Eagles, I lean toward jumping on it, considering Philly’s net margin of defeat at home has been just 1.0 point and it’s failed to cover by an average of just 3.4 points at the Linc as well.
The Lean: Eagles +6 or better
MNF Over/Under Total
The Over is 6-4 (60.0 percent) in Seattle’s games this season, including 3-2 (60.0 percent) in its road games and 4-3 (57.1 percent) in its conference matchups.
Then, the Over is 4-6 (40.0 percent) in Philadelphia’s games this season, including 2-3 (40.0 percent) in its home games and 2-4 (33.3 percent) in its conference matchups.
As previously discussed, each defense has a particularly glaring weakness, and there are strong offensive players on each club as well. As such, while it may not be by much, I see the 49.5 points being exceeded in this spot.
The Pick: Over 48.5 points or better
Best MNF Prop Bet
D.K. Metcalf Under 69.5 receiving yards (+110 or better)
As mentioned earlier, the Eagles have been excellent against the pass all season. In addition to numbers already cited, it’s also worth noting Philadelphia is tied with the Ravens for third-fewest wide receiver targets faced (191 over 10 games) and is yielding just 5.9 yards per attempt. Metcalf has thrived on the big play for his breakout games and is seeing a bloated average depth of target of 14.2 yards, which isn’t exactly incompatible with the Eagles’ ability to consistently force quarterbacks into short throws. Then, it might be surprising to learn Metcalf has actually fallen short of this yardage mark in three of the last five games against the similarly tough secondaries of the Cardinals (twice) and Rams, making this prop one to consider at plus money.