It’s the home stretch of the season with division races really cranking up. Week 12 sees plenty of division-shaping matchups, beginning with the Washington Football Team facing the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The Tennessee Titans take on the first-place Indianapolis Colts on Sunday and the Pittsburgh Steelers are scheduled to face the Baltimore Ravens – a game that was rescheduled from Thanksgiving to Sunday. Plenty other teams have make-or-break weeks ahead as the playoff picture is beginning to become more clear.
It’s a week full of interesting matchups and plenty of opportunity for great prop bets.
In this article we’ll take a look at some of the most intriguing matchups for Week 12’s action. These matchups can be used to make prop bets, for fantasy football advice, or just for the football junkie who’s wanting to get insight on the upcoming games.
Player Prop Picks
Justin Herbert: OVER 275.5 passing yards vs Bills (-110)
Twice this year has Justin Herbert been held under 275.5 passing yards– against the Rams (second in passing yards allowed, 200.6 yards per game) and the Dolphins. The Buffalo Bills have surrendered the 12th-most passing yards per game over the last three games, two of which came against the Patriots (27th in passing yards) and the Jets (32nd in passing yards). There won’t be much resistance against Herbert’s passing attack.
There’ll also be a positive game script for Herbert through the air, since the Bills are 11th in the NFL in scoring (27.2 points per game) and third over the last three games (32.7). In order for the Chargers to keep up, Herbert’s going to have to throw it often. This won’t be the week that holds Herbert down.
Brandon Allen: UNDER 215.5 yards (-110)
We’ll make this one short: Brandon Allen has thrown for 216 or more yards once in his career, when he went for 240 against the Minnesota Vikings in 2019. In that game, he threw the football 39 times (43% completion) and the Giants blew a 23-7 second-half lead. Joe Mixon is still out and Giovanni Bernard hasn’t been pulling the offense along. Without Burrow, the Bengals are zero-dimensional. Zac Taylor won’t be keeping the same game plan for Allen.
Wayne Gallman: to score TD and WIN (+145)
Over the last four games, Wayne Gallman has scored five touchdowns– a stretch that the New York Giants are 2-2 during (two losses by a combined three points). He’s been the most effective offensive tool, even if the yards aren’t piling up. His touchdowns haven’t been coming against teams that are poor against the run, either; the Bucs (Week 8) are the leading defense against the rush and Washington (Week 9) ranks 14th.
Cincinnati is 30th in the NFL against the run (136.2 yards allowed per game). Without Burrow, the Bengals’ offense is expected to struggle, making an excellent game script for Gallman this week. The other half of the prop is for the Giants to win this ballgame. As mentioned, they’re 3-2 over their last five games and lost those two games by a combined field goal. They’re far from a good football team, but they’re hot, and Cincinnati was just delivered a fatal blow to their season.
Keenan Allen: OVER 7.5 receptions (+100)
In games quarterbacked by Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen has been one of the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging 11.6 targets per game (first). Since Week 3, Allen has been held under 7.5 receptions twice– in games which we was defended by Jalen Ramsey (two targets, two receptions, 29 yards) and Xavien Howard (three receptions, 39 yards). Twice this year has Allen been targeted 19 times, including last week.
The Chargers find themselves 24th in the NFL in scoring defense (27.3 points allowed per game) and fifth-worst in scoring defense over their last three games (29.3). The Bills are 11th in the NFL in scoring (27.2 points per game) and third over the last three games (32.7). This means the Chargers will have to throw the ball often to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills’ prolific scoring offense. Herbert’s found a comfort in targeting Allen, so expect him to see plenty of targets. It’s a great game script for Allen to thrive.