We’re heading down the home stretch of the 2020-21 NFL season and there are many ways to cash in on your knowledge of the most popular professional sports league in the country. The smartest and most fortunate bettors should still be alive in their survivor pools.
At PlayPicks, we’re breaking down the NFL survivor pool landscape to bring you weekly options that will help you stay alive and ahead of the field in your pool.
For those new to survivor pools, the format is simple: Pick an NFL team to win each week, advance if they win, and you can’t pick the same team twice. The last member of the pool standing takes home the cash.
In this article, we will identify our strongest survivor pick for this week, called a “lock“, and a “thrifty” pick that can help you save better teams for later in the season.
The lock is our safest and most obvious pick for the week. The thrifty pick is a good team to consider at this point in the season schedule. And our land mine identifies a team that might be a popular pick but could come up short when the defecation hits the oscillation in the NFL and thousands of survivors lose a supposed lock to an upset.
You can also use advice from this article to place bets on FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook. Many of the recommended bets can be applied to those sportsbooks. Also, be aware that the point spread could be considerable with these teams favored to win by over a touchdown in some cases.
Week 12 Lock Survivor Pool Pick
Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Browns continue to execute against bad teams and face a Jaguars team that is arguably even worse than the Jets given their recent rash of injuries. Jake Luton has a rough 47.2% completion rate with 5 picks over his last 2 starts and is likely to start again with Gardner Minshew (thumb) out. Jacksonville’s starting CBs C.J. Henderson (groin) and Sidney Jones (Achilles) both missed Week 11 and top pass rusher Josh Allen (knee) left early. The Browns might not even need to beat the Jags through the air considering they average the second-most rushing YPG (156.3) over the past 3 weeks. Jacksonville ranks 20th in DVOA rush defense and allows a healthy 129 rushing YPG on the year.
Week 12 Thrifty Survivor Pool Pick
New York Giants vs Cincinnati Bengals
Following the news that Joe Burrow (knee) is done for the season, this line shifted nearly 6 points at some books so that the Giants are now 5-point favorites. They were already a better overall team, but Burrow has game-changing ability. The Bengals are now a cupcake matchup with Brandon Allen set to start. Joe Mixon (foot) is on I.R. and the Giants allow a modest 3.8 YPC on the road. The Giants have had their issues in pass defense, but Joe Judge has turned his secondary around and his team is now holding opponents to a league-low 24.1% conversion rate on third down over their past 3 games. This is the best opportunity to use the Giants in survivor with the NFC East race locked in uncertainty.
Week 12 Survivor Pool Land Mine
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
Picking against the Jets has worked all season long in survivor, including a 24-0 win for the Dolphins in Week 6. If you didn’t use Miami in that matchup and want to pick them on the road this Sunday, beware. The Dolphins offense ranks dead last in total YPG (271.7) over their last 3 outings and their QB situation is messy with Tua Tagovailoa slated to start despite his struggles. Miami hasn’t found as much balance with Myles Gaskin (knee) on I.R. and the Jets have yielded just 2.7 YPC over their last 3 contests. Gang Green has nearly found that first win in consecutive games and they would have a much better chance if Sam Darnold (shoulder) returns this week.