NFL Picks | Betting Odds, Predictions And Strategy For Thanskgiving

Posted By Nate Weitzer on November 23, 2020 - Last Updated on November 25, 2020

Thanksgiving will look a bit different this year, but there is still a slate of NFL games. The Lions and Cowboys play in their usual afternoon slots, but the AFC North showdown between the Ravens and undefeated Steelers has been PPD to Sunday due to a wave of positive COVID-19 tests.

On this page, our experts provide their weekly best bets for NFL games and propositions, with an odds table to show you up to date lines at the best online sportsbooks. Our bets can be on the moneyline, spread, point total, or a player proposition, and all picks will have stats and analysis for support.

NFL Thanksgiving odds

NFL Thanksgiving Betting Picks

Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans

The Texans come off an impressive win over the Patriots in which Deshaun Watson (28-for-37 passing, 314 yards, 4 total TDs) was nearly perfect. Meanwhile, Detroit joined the Jets as the only NFL teams to be shut out this year during a feeble 20-0 loss at Carolina. The Texans run defense remains exploitable, but the Lions are averaging the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (94.7) and could once again be without D’Andre Swift (concussion). Both these teams have a rush play percentage under 38% on the season and the Texans will be without David Johnson (concussion). So this contest should feature a ton of throwing on the artificial turf at Ford Field, and Watson is sure to expose Detroit’s 27th-rated pass defense with his speedy receivers and ability to extend plays.

The Pick: Texans -3 or better 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team

The Cowboys righted the ship with Andy Dalton back under center, rushing for 180 yards in a 31-28 win over Minnesota. Washington’s defense should prove much tougher to crack. The Football Team is allowing 113.7 rushing YPG and ranks fifth in DVOA pass defense. Chase Young and company have the second-highest adjusted sack rate (9.5%) this season, so Dalton will be in trouble if the Cowboys can’t establish the run. With both of these teams ranking in the bottom five in DVOA pass offense, and the Cowboys defense coming around, we’re not afraid to take the Under (47.5) where getting decent odds. Taking the Cowboys to go Under their implied total (24.5) is our preferred bet since we’re not necessarily willing to count on the Dallas defense.

The Pick: Cowboys Under 24.5 or better 

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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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