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NFL DFS

The Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) meet for the second time this season and the first time ever at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. The rematch of the Week 5 clash in Kansas City which ended in a stunning 40-32 Raiders win will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET. We look at the Chiefs-Raiders betting odds and lines, and make our picks for the moneyline, spread and over/under as the two AFC West rivals meet in primetime.

The Raiders have had to alter their practice routine due to COVID-19 concerns for the second time in 2020. Ten defensive players were placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week. Most are expected to be available to play pending further negative test results but practices have been conducted virtually. Las Vegas lost 45-20 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7 after several offensive linemen were in the protocol. That contest was bumped from SNF to the late afternoon slate due to the COVID concerns.

The Chiefs’ Week 5 loss to the Raiders is their only defeat since Week 10 of last season; they beat the Carolina Panthers 33-31 in Week 9 at Arrowhead Stadium before a Week 10 bye. The Raiders have won three straight games since their loss to the Bucs, including a 37-12 beat down of the Denver Broncos last week at the Death Star.

Betting advice is offered as either a “pick” or a “lean”. The former is suggested with a high degree of confidence based on the matchup, betting trends, and listed odds. Leans may require solidified injury news or line movement in a particular direction. My Sunday Night Football Betting Preview at TheLines dives deeper into the Chiefs-Raiders matchup to help you prepare for your Week 11 betting picks.

Chiefs at Raiders odds

Chiefs at Raiders picks: Moneyline

Kansas City is the betting favorite for Super Bowl LV at DraftKings Sportsbook with +350 odds; the Raiders are +5000. The Chiefs sit safely atop the AFC West and are second in the AFC standings, while the Raiders are one of five AFC teams at 6-3 and fighting for a wild-card spot. The Raiders’ Week 5 win over the Chiefs was their first victory in the head-to-head rivalry series since Oct. 19, 2017, and only their second win in the last 12 clashes.

Not only do the Raiders now have to face an angry Chiefs side, but they must do so with the likes of DB Johnathan Abram, S Lamarcus Joyner, DT Maliek Collins, and DE Clelin Ferrell sitting out practice all week. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther seemingly tried to make light of the situation, saying “I don’t know how we can beat these guys with a full lineup and practice, let alone three-quarters of your lineup not here all week,” according to Josh Dubow of The Associated Press.

Still, the bookmakers aren’t giving the Raiders much of a chance. Las Vegas is the second-biggest home underdog of the week, offering a higher return on investment with a victory than all but the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bettors at FanDuel Sportsbook are shying away from the Raiders pulling off a second upset in the season series with 86% of moneyline bets on KC through Thursday afternoon.

We’ll follow suit by picking the Chiefs but PASS on the ML in favor of a more profitable venture on the spread. It’s unwise to risk nearly four times your potential return, especially in Las Vegas.

The pick: PASS

Chiefs at Raiders picks: Against the spread

Only the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers (at the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars) are laying more points as visitors in Week 11 than the Chiefs. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS this season when laying more than 7 points, including their outright loss as 11-point favorites against the Raiders in Week 5. The Raiders are 6-3 ATS overall but just 2-2 in their new home and 3-3 as underdogs.

The COVID-19 concerns are only worsening this spot for the Raiders. They’re already facing an angry and rested rival. Kansas City is also winning by a league-high 11.4 points per game. Even though the Raiders found a way to the Week 5 upset, they don’t match up particularly well against the defending champs and rank just 26th in ESPN’s Team Pass Rush Win Rate with a healthy defense. Mahomes was sacked three times in the first meeting of the year, but he still threw for 340 yards.

The Chiefs, however, rank just 29th in Team Run Stop Win Rate. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs ran 23 times for 77 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5. He’ll continue to lead a backfield getting the ball on 48.70% of snaps.

Kansas City punted five times to Las Vegas’ two in the first meeting of the season. Look for those numbers to flip with the Raiders defense out of sync following a week of virtual practices. Back the Chiefs to win by 10 or more points.

The pick: Chiefs (-8 or better)

Chiefs at Raiders picks: Over/Under (total)

Week 9 was the Chiefs’ first time giving up more than 20 points since surrendering 40 to the Raiders in Week 5. Meanwhile, the Raiders have topped 30 points scored in back-to-back games.

The Raiders offense is the healthiest it has been for most of the season with rookie WR Bryan Edwards back in the lineup. As noted above, this is also a great matchup for the Raiders’ No. 1 offensive weapon in Jacobs. The Chiefs are expected to have WR Sammy Watkins back in the lineup for the first time since Week 5. Rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) missed practice Thursday but is expected to play.

Las Vegas is 6-2-1 against the Over/Under and topping projected totals by 4.9 points per game; Kansas City is 4-5 against the line. The projected total of 56.5 is the highest of Sunday’s slate and the highest for either team this season, but betting action at FanDuel has still been almost exclusively on the Over with 93% of tickets and 99% of the handle placed on the Over.

We’ll follow the trends, so long as this line doesn’t rise to close to 60 with the heavily skewed betting splits. Take the Over and expect to see close to 40 points from the visitors.

The lean: OVER (56.5 or better)

Best SNF prop bet

Winning margin: Chiefs 7 to 12 (+430 or better)

This bracket gives us an extra point of insurance on the true spread of Chiefs -8. The Raiders proved in Week 5 they’re able to hang with the Chiefs offensively and Carr has just two interceptions on the season. This one is unlikely to become ugly and be decided by more than two scores.