DraftKings NFL DFS Picks, Predictions And Lineup Strategy For Week 11

Written By Nate Weitzer on November 19, 2020 - Last Updated on November 21, 2020

The 2020-21 NFL season is in full swing and there are huge Week 11 DFS contests being offered on DraftKings with big prize money up for grabs.

In this weekly column, we will identify the best plays, values, and tournament options for your NFL DFS lineups. We’ll also offer the best “fades” at each position, indicating which players to avoid when building your lineups.

Keep in mind that some of the plays offered are better for “Cash” games, i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up formats that require a more conservative approach. Some plays are recommended for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments where it’s necessary to take more risk in the hopes of separating from a large field. Those GPP plays can also be ideal for Best Ball formats where players with higher upside are valuable.

For those interested in the DFS Single-Game Slate contests, here’s a quick recap:

In the “Showdown” mode on DraftKings, there are five utility spots and a “Captain” slot, who receives 1.5x multiplier for all DK points accrued. Pricing differs for players when selected in the Captain spot versus the FLEX spots, with all players required to fit under a $50k salary cap. All options are in play from QBs, RBs and WRs, to kickers and D/ST from each team.

Keep an eye on injury news right up until kickoff since things can change quickly in the NFL. Please note any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.


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Slant: $9 entry, $400k guaranteed

Top NFL DFS DraftKings Plays for Week 11


Best Play: Justin Herbert ($6.8k)

The Jets are giving up the ninth-fewest DK PPG to opposing QBs and that is largely due to game flow. Yet their offense finally looked competent in Week 9 at the Patriots and their receivers will be healthy after the bye. Defensively, the Jets will shut down the run and that plays right into Herbert’s hands. The Chargers average the seventh-most passing YPG (272.1) while the Jets yield the fourth-most yards per attempt (8.1) and the highest completion percentage (72.%) this year. Herbert has attempted the sixth-most deep throws with the second-most “Money Throws” and he’s unflappable in the face of pressure. 

Value Play: Alex Smith ($5.3k)

There are two QBs at this exact price point worth considering this week and Andy Dalton ($5.3k) would be the preferred GPP option in an offense with more upside. Smith is a fine Cash play as he comes off consecutive 300-plus yard passing games and is due for positive TD regression. The Bengals have allowed the second-most passing TDs (21) and third-most pass plays (37) of 20-plus yards this season. Their top CB, William Jackson, is banged up and stands little chance of covering Terry McLaurin without help. Joe Burrow is good enough to burn the Washington defense and force Smith to throw in response.

GPP Play: Ben Roethlisberger ($6.7k)

Concerns of the Steelers (-10) coasting to victory in Jacksonville could keep Roethlisberger’s ownership down this week. But after averaging the fewest rushing YPG (46) their past 3 games, the Steelers passed on 69.7% of offensive plays last week while blowing out the Bengals at home. Big Ben went for a season-high 333 passing yards despite missing the entire week of practice and will be more prepared to shred the Jaguars 32nd-ranked pass defense this Sunday. 

Fade: Deshaun Watson ($6.5k)

The Patriots offense is rolling again with the fourth-most rushing YPG (173.3) over their last 3 contests. Houston’s run defense is the worst in the NFL and that should eat into the time of possession possible for the Texans offense. Last week, Watson attempted 30 passes over 26:40 of possession and his opportunities may be even more limited this week. Plus the Patriots secondary is coming around in the second half of the year per usual and could get Stephon Gillmore (knee) back. 

Running Back

Best Play: Alvin Kamara ($9.2k)

It should be obvious that the Saints will feature Kamara even more heavily with Drew Brees (ribs) out multiple weeks. Even with high ownership, he’s not a bad play in this matchup. Kamara leads all RBs in targets (80), receiving yards (648), and is second in route participation (70.4%). Jameis Winston targeted him on 3-of-10 pass attempts after relieving Brees and we should see plenty of creative screen plays from Sean Payton with Taysom Hill ($4.8k) slated to start at QB. The Falcons allow the sixth-most receptions per game (5.9) to RBs and have yielded the second-most receiving scores (4) to the position.

Value Play: Kalen Ballage ($5.6k)

The Chargers placed Justin Jackson (knee) on I.R. and won’t activate Austin Ekeler (hamstring) for one more week. That leaves Ballage to handle the receiving work again after running 22 pass routes and catching 5-of-6 targets against the stingy Dolphins defense last week. The Jets shut down interior runs but allow the third-most receptions per game (6.4) to opposing backs. Ballage profiles as a much better option in this matchup than Troymaine Pope or Joshua Kelley.

GPP Play: Mike Davis ($6.8k)

Davis has dropped a dud in 3 straight appearances, with Christian McCaffrey active for one of those games. Prior to that stretch he handled 21-plus touches in 4 straight games and he’s certainly going to provide value with that workload in the right matchups. The Lions are the most generous defense to opposing RBs this season and Carolina should see favorable game flow at home.

Fade: Aaron Jones ($7.2k)

The Colts allow the third-fewest rushing YPG (90.8) despite coughing up 157 rushing yards to Derrick Henry and the Titans last Thursday. Their small but speedy defense matches up far better against Jones, a 5-foot-9 speedster who is a gifted receiver. Jones was on fire over the first 4 weeks before suffering a calf strain. Since returning, he’s played on just two-thirds of offensive snaps and has not seen any red zone targets. Negative TD regression is hitting him hard.   


Wide Receiver

Best Play: Julio Jones ($7.5k)

Jones has never been the most reliable in terms of scoring TDs but he’s a PPR maven. With Calvin Ridley (foot) hobbled, Jones has drawn 268 Air Yards with 20 receptions and 58.2 DK points over his last 3 outings. This week he faces tough CB Marshon Lattimore, who is having a down year and is allowing 14.2 yards per catch. Jones averages 9.1 targets and 92.6 receiving YPG in his career against the Saints and this year New Orleans is selling out to stop the run while coughing up the seventh-most receiving TDs to WRs.  

Value Play: Diontae Johnson ($5.9k)

Chase Claypool ($6.1k) may be the better GPP play for his TD upside, but Johnson is your preferred Cash option on DK. When he’s active and the Steelers are throwing, Johnson has the third-highest “Hog Rate” (19.4%) of any receiver. He’s drawn 36 targets over his last 3 games against teams other than the Ravens and draws a juicy matchup this week against the Jags.

GPP Play: Jakobi Meyers ($4.9k)

The Patriots should exploit the Texans horrible run defense this week and when they go to the air, Meyers should be the primary target. Over the past 3 weeks, Meyers has played on 98.9% of offensive snaps and caught 23-of-31 targets with Cam Newton locking onto the former college QB. He’s taking over Julian Edelman’s role in the Pats offense and faces a Texans team that yields the fifth-highest completion percentage (68.6%) while ranking 22nd in DVOA pass defense.

Fade: A.J. Brown ($7.2k)

The Ravens likely have the best secondary in the AFC and physical DBs Marlon Humphrey is fully capable of shutting down the 226-pound Brown. The Titans top WR struggled with drops last Thursday and hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 8. The Ravens are tied with the Rams for the fewest TDs (4) allowed to WRs and are far more vulnerable against TEs and tailbacks. 

Tight End

Best Play: Mark Andrews ($4.9k)

The TE position is thin as it’s ever been this week, so it makes sense to pay up a little more for the player who is most reliable in a thin passing attack. Andrew leads all TEs with a 34.4% red zone target share and is sixth in route participation (86.5%) this season. The Titans rank 25th in DVOA pass defense and were exposed by the Colts on crossing routes. Expect Baltimore to find similar holes and for Lamar Jackson to look for his favorite target in key situations.

Value Play: Eric Ebron ($4.0k)

While he has tremendous upside, Ebron is still a relatively safe play in what’s become a very pass-heavy attack. He’s drawn at least one red zone target in 7 of his last 8 outings and is facing a Jags team that’s allowed the second-most TDs (7) to his position. Ebron has the sixth-most completed Air Yards (221) among TEs and has a QB who isn’t afraid to push the issue downfield.

GPP Play: Jared Cook ($4.1k)

Cook is coming off a goose egg in Week 10, although he could have caught a 40-plus yard TD if he shared the same read as Drew Brees. Now he’ll be working with Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill and there’s a chance that shift in offensive strategy benefits the speedy TE. Cook has the third-highest share of Air Yards (23.7%) among TEs and the matchup doesn’t get any better against a Falcons team that’s coughed up the most TDs (8) to his position. 

Fade: Noah Fant ($4.5k)

Drew Lock (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s matchup against the Dolphins and the Broncos offense could fall off a cliff with Jeff Driskel or Brett Rypien under center. Even with Lock healthy, Fant hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 2 and is a tough bet to break out against Miami’s surging defense. The Dolphins allow just 38.1 receiving YPG to TEs and rank 8th in DVOA pass defense while allowing just 16.5 PPG over their last 6 games. 


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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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