Patriots vs. Texans: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 11

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on November 17, 2020 - Last Updated on November 23, 2020

The New England Patriots (4-5) are against the Houston Texans (2-7) on Sunday, November 22, 2020. The point total is set at .

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of November 16, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Texans odds

Computer Predictions

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Texans (+2.0) Under (48.0) Texans 24, Patriots 23

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England’s games have gone under the point total in five out of nine opportunities this season (55.6%).
  • New England is just 1-3 against the spread in away games this year, and is 1-3 overall on the road.
  • New England has put together a losing 4-5 record against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots have an even ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 2.0-point favorites.
  • The average points per game output for the Patriots this season, 21, is seven fewer than the 28 the Texans have given up in each contest.
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, New England is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread.
  • When the Houston defense allows 28 points or fewer this year, the Texans have pieced together a 2-2 overall record and a 2-2 record against the spread.

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Texans Betting Insights

  • Houston’s games have hit the over in five out of nine outings this season (55.6%).
  • Houston has put together a losing 2-7 record against the spread this season.
  • The Texans have a losing ATS record of 1-2 when playing as at least 2.0-point underdogs.
  • Houston has just a 1-3 record against the spread at home this year, and is 1-3 overall in home games.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed 23.4 points per game this season, close to the same amount as the 22.2 the Texans have scored.
  • Houston is 2-2 overall and 1-3 against the spread when they score at least 22.2 points this season.
  • When New England allows opposing offenses to put 23.4 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Patriots 21 (27) 23.4 (11) 44.4
Texans 22.2 (25) 28 (25) 50.2

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Cam Newton has thrown for 1,535 yards while completing 68.8% of his passes (143-of-208), with three touchdowns and seven interceptions in nine games this year (170.6 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 80 times for 335 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 37.2 yards per game.
  • Damien Harris has taken 85 carries for a team-leading 471 rushing yards (78.5 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in six games.
  • Jakobi Meyers has grabbed 28 passes to lead the team with 353 yards with zero touchdowns. He has been targeted 38 times and averages 50.4 yards per game over seven outings.
  • Damiere Byrd’s statline this year shows 26 catches for 337 yards and zero touchdowns in nine games. He averages 37.4 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 41 times.
  • James White has caught 27 passes on 32 targets for 203 yards and zero touchdowns, averaging 29.0 yards per game in seven contests in 2020.
  • Chase Winovich has 2.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 3.0 TFL and 27 tackles over nine games.
  • In nine games over the 2020 campaign, Adrian Phillips has racked up 58 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and one interception and leads the team in tackles.
  • J.C. Jackson has a team-high six interceptions and has tacked on 20 tackles and 11 passes defended nine in games this season.

Texans Players to Watch

  • Deshaun Watson has thrown for 2,539 yards while completing 68.1% of his passes (205-of-301), with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games this year (282.1 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 48 times for 233 yards and one touchdown, averaging 25.9 yards per game.
  • Duke Johnson Jr. has 149 yards on 48 carries (21.3 ypg), with one rushing touchdown over the course of seven games. He also has 14 catches for 109 yards (15.6 ypg).
  • Will Fuller V has been targeted 60 times and has 41 catches to lead the team with 628 yards (69.8 ypg) while scoring six touchdowns in nine games this season.
  • Brandin Cooks has chipped in with 43 catches for 549 yards and three touchdowns over the course of nine games this year. He has been targeted 68 times and averages 61.0 receiving yards per game.
  • Randall Cobb has racked up 434 yards on 36 passes with two touchdowns in 2020, averaging 48.2 yards per game on 46 targets in nine contests.
  • J.J. Watt has 4.0 sacks to lead the team, and has also added 6.0 TFL and 30 tackles over nine games.
  • Zach Cunningham has racked up 92 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and three sacks to lead the team in tackles so far in nine games over the course of the 2020 campaign.

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