Sunday Night Football Picks And Predictions: Ravens at Patriots

Posted By Esten McLaren on November 12, 2020

The Baltimore Ravens (6-2) visit the New England Patriots (3-5) on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. It’s a rare all-AFC battle on SNF this season; kickoff will be at 8:20 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Below, we’ll look at the Ravens-Patriots betting odds and lines at the top US sportsbook and make our picks and best bets for the moneyline, spread and over/under.

Baltimore comes into Week 10 in second place in the competitive AFC North. It beat the Indianapolis Colts 24-10 on the road last week to bounce back from a 28-24 loss to the rival Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8. The Ravens retain a share of the fourth-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win Super Bowl LV at +900.

New England outscored the New York Jets 13-0 in the fourth quarter of their Monday Night Football contest to escape with a 30-27 win. The victory snapped a four-game losing skid which included two losses at home. The Patriots (+2000) trail the Buffalo Bills (-1000) and Miami Dolphins (+500) by the odds to win the AFC East.

Advice on the aforementioned bet types will be offered as either a “pick” or a “lean”; we’ll also highlight the best Sunday Night Football prop bet. Picks are strong plays based on the matchup and trends and can be made at the odds resembling those listed at the time of publishing. Leans may hinge on injuries or an expectation of the lines moving in a certain direction. My Sunday Night Football Betting Preview at TheLines dives deeper into the Ravens-Patriots matchup to help you prepare for your Week 10 betting picks. There, we look at the on-field matchup, betting trends for both teams, and betting information from some of the top US sportsbooks.

Ravens at Patriots odds

Ravens at Patriots picks: Moneyline

This is one of the most lopsided moneylines of Week 10. The teams are at near-opposite ends of the AFC standings and are coming off very different Week 9 results. Predictably, the Patriots are among the three-biggest underdogs of the week and are (by far) the biggest home dogs. Only the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers offer a lower return on investment with victory than the Ravens.

The skewed lines haven’t deterred bettors at FanDuel Sportsbook. Seventy-four percent of moneyline bets and 96% of the betting handle are on the Ravens as heavy favorites.

Not only are the Ravens coming off the far more impressive Week 9 performance, but they also beat the Patriots 37-20 in their Week 9 meeting last season. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson went 17-for-23 through the air for 163 yards and a touchdown without a pick. He added 61 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Then-Patriots QB Tom Brady left via free agency and was replaced by free-agent Cam Newton. Newton has two touchdown passes and seven interceptions on the year.

Adding to the Patriots’ troubles in the passing game, WR Julian Edelman (knee) is on the Reserve/Injured list. WR N’Keal Harry (concussion) is at risk of missing another game.

The Ravens are a very safe play, but with the gap in the moneyline odds only expected to grow through the week, the best play is to PASS and look to the spread if you’re not comfortable eating this much chalk.

The pick: Ravens (-335 or better)

Ravens at Patriots picks: Against the spread

Despite the differing results of last week and the heavy action on the Ravens, the spread hasn’t shifted much. The line opened at Ravens -6.5 last week and has grown to only -7 by Thursday afternoon.

Five of the six Ravens’ victories this season have been by a margin of 14 or more points. The Patriots have twice lost by more than 7 points. Additionally, the Patriots have been held to 12 or fewer points three times through eight games. The Ravens have twice held their opponents to fewer than 10 points and to fewer than 20 points four times.

The Ravens have a better rushing offense with 5.1 yards per attempt to 4.9 for the Patriots. They also have a better rush defense while ranking first in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Newton’s interceptions could also be an issue and spoil a backdoor cover by the Patriots in garbage time.

Take the Ravens to win by at least 8 points; act quickly with the spread likely to grow.

The pick: Ravens (-7 or better)

Ravens at Patriots picks: Over/Under (total)

The projected total of 43.5 points for Sunday Night Football is the lowest Over/Under of Week 10. It’s also the lowest total of the year for the Ravens but is the highest of the last three weeks for the Pats.

New England is 4-4 against the Over/Under for the season while topping projections by an average of 0.9 points per game. Baltimore is 3-5 against the number and falls an average of 1.8 PPG below the line.

The low number coincides with the lopsided spread and low expectations for the scuffling New England offense in a tough matchup. Look for the Jets to handle the bulk of the scoring after the Jets and backup QB Joe Flacco put up 27 against the Pats on MNF. The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in four of their 10 matchups against the Patriots since John Harbaugh was hired as head coach in 2008.

The pick: OVER (43.5 or better)

Best SNF prop bet

First to 30 points: Ravens (+175 or better)

Our Sunday Night Football prop feels fairly safe yet comes with a nearly 2-1 return on investment. As mentioned, Harbaugh has been able to guide the Ravens to big point totals against the Bill Belichick-led Patriots defense. Baltimore has also scored 30 or more points four times this season while New England has done so three times.

The Patriots’ 30 points against the Jets in Week 9 was their highest team total since Week 3. The Kansas City Chiefs’ 34 points in Week 3 was the most scored on the Ravens this season and was Baltimore’s only time giving up more than 28 points.

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Esten McLaren

Esten grew up on a golf course and made the switch from real-life trunk slammer to the daily fantasy realm as soon as the game was launched. He's been betting golf regularly for the better part of the last 10 years, most memorably winning big on Rory McIlroy's 2014 Open title, but a trip to Carnoustie for the 2018 Open and a walk around St. Andrews share the honor for best golf highlight. He has written about all major sports at FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and SportsBookWire.

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