It’s beyond the halfway mark of the NFL season and teams are battling injuries and extensive COVID-reserve lists. With some of the league’s marquee players still being listed on the IR (George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey), you’ll need to dig a little deeper to find great player props. Fortunately, that’s what PlayPicks is here for.
Below are the picks for this week’s best player prop bets and some of the most intriguing individual matchups of the week.
Player Prop Picks
Justin Herbert: OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-192)
The Chalk Bet of the Week award goes to this prop; there’s a reason DraftKings Sportsbook lists it at -192. Over the past four weeks, Justin Herbert has been the second most productive quarterback in the NFL (passing touchdowns, yards, few interceptions) behind only Kyler Murray. The rookie gets a favorable matchup here against the Las Vegas Raiders who, despite holding Baker Mayfield to zero production a week ago, are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Herbert torched Kansas City for 311 yards, Tampa Bay for 290 yards and three touchdowns, and the Rams for 264 yards and four touchdowns this season. Through his last four games, he’s posted a 13-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio (avg. 3.3 passing touchdowns per game). The chances of Vegas holding Herbert under two passing touchdowns indoors isn’t very high. Take the chalk on Herbert this week.
Terry McLaurin: OVER 5.5 receptions (-150)
Reception over/under marks follow a simple formula: more targets equals more opportunity and an increased probability of more receptions. Terry McLaurin is the sixth-most targeted player in the NFL (9.9 per game) and in four of seven games this season, he’s seen at least 10 targets. Over his last two, McLaurin has been targeted 12 and 11 times for seven receptions each. While he might not have a premiere quarterback throwing to him, the sheer volume is enough to make him one of the league’s most productive receivers.
McLaurin gets the James Bradberry treatment, which usually spells disaster for receivers. Last time out, McLaurin saw 12 targets for seven receptions and 74 yards while being covered by Bradberry. That game finished with a 20-19 total (39 combined points). This week’s matchup doesn’t have a much higher point total (42.5), but even in the low-scoring affairs, McLaurin is guaranteed his share. When targeted at least 10 times, he’s never been held to under seven receptions. We can expect a repeat performance of that Week 6 matchup, meaning he’s likely to haul in at least six passes.
James Conner: to score 2+ touchdowns (+230)
It’s not a secret that the Cowboys defense is absolutely abysmal and their offense has been disastrous since losing Dak Prescott for the season. This is a perfect combination for Pittsburgh to be up big for most of this game, producing a positive game script for the Steelers’ ground game. Dallas is giving up the most rushing yards in the NFL through eight weeks (1,109 yards) and Pittsburgh throws the ninth-least passes in the league.
With plenty of work ahead for him, James Conner should find the end zone at least once. It’s a safe bet to say he’ll find it more than once with the projected game script. Dallas is down to a practice squad quarterback and their offensive line is decimated; even Ezekiel Elliott is projected to have a lighter workload due to a hamstring issue. The Cowboys just won’t find the end zone enough to force the Steelers into passing situations.
Darnell Mooney: to score a TD (+330)
This isn’t a stat you’ll find on ESPN, but Tennessee is the worst team in the league against No. 2 receivers; they’ve given up at least one touchdown to the second receiver in five of seven games this season. Notable performances by second receivers against Tennessee include Justin Jefferson (175 yards, one touchdown), Diontae Johnson (80 yards, two touchdowns), and Brandin Cooks (68 yards, one touchdown).
The advantageous matchup doesn’t just mean you plug in whatever second receiver is up against the Titans. Rookie Darnell Mooney has been utilized heavily by Chicago all season long. Since Week 3, Mooney has seen 6.6 targets per game despite facing some of the league’s best secondaries (Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, New Orleans). Nick Foles has found a rhythm with the Tulane product and his production doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. If there’s a game to be confident in Mooney finding this end zone, it’s this week.