Yankees Vs Astros: ALCS Game 4 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 23, 2022

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 23, 2022

The New York Yankees are at home for Game 4 of the ALCS versus the Houston Astros, Sunday at 7:07 PM ET. The Astros won the first three, and will try to sweep. Nestor Cortes pitches for New York (-121 to win) while Houston (+103) will answer with Lance McCullers Jr..

The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET. See the table below for the latest odds on this matchup and click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Yankees vs Astros Betting Lines

Yankees Betting Insights

  • This season, the Yankees have won 96 out of the 151 games, or 63.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • New York has a record of 91-50 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -121 on the moneyline.
  • The Yankees have a 54.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Games involving New York have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 80 of 173 chances this season.
  • The Yankees have an ATS record of 76-97-0 in 173 games with a spread this season.

Yankees Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 2.8
HR 14
ERA 3.14
K/9 8.58

Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have been victorious in 11, or 47.8%, of the 23 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Houston has been victorious 10 times in 19 chances when named as an underdog of at least +103 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Houston and their opponents have gone over in 62 of their 172 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Astros are 92-80-0 against the spread in their 172 games that had a posted line this season.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 9-1
Runs Per Game 4.1
HR 16
ERA 1.45
K/9 11.73

Astros Probable Pitcher – Lance McCullers Jr.

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Astros, his ninth of the season.
  • His most recent appearance came on Saturday, Oct. 15 against the Seattle Mariners, when the right-hander tossed six scoreless innings while giving up two hits.
  • McCullers is looking for his 10th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.3 innings per start.
  • The Astros were named the moneyline underdog for one McCullers start this season — they lost.
  • McCullers’ team has a 6-3 record in his starts this season.
  • McCullers has started 10 games with a total this season. His team has not hit the over in any of them.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Astros Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP K/9 H/9 HR/9 ERA
Rafael Montero 71 68.1 9.6 6.8 0.4 2.50
Héctor Neris 70 65.1 10.9 7.2 0.4 3.86
Ryne Stanek 59 54.2 10.2 7.0 0.4 1.15
Bryan Abreu 55 60.1 13.1 7.9 0.4 1.94
Ryan Pressly 50 48.1 12.1 6.0 0.8 2.98

Yankees Probable Pitcher – Nestor Cortes

  • Cortes’ team is 17-14-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Tuesday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed three hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
  • Cortes has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • Cortes’ team has been victorious in 67.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 21-10.
  • Cortes’ team has won 20 of his 28 starts.
  • Out of Cortes’ 31 starts with a total this season, 12 have hit the over.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Yankees Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Lou Trivino 64 53.2 67 4.53 4 11
Clay Holmes 62 63.2 65 2.69 7 20
Wandy Peralta 56 56.1 47 2.72 9 5
Jonathan Loaisiga 50 48.0 37 4.12 10 2
Miguel Castro 34 29.0 31 4.03 9 0

Yankees Hitting Trends

  • The Yankees have a record this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
  • The Yankees have gone 27-4 in the 31 games this season when they have put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team is 60-23 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • The Yankees are 68-11 in the games this season that they scored at least five runs.
  • The Yankees are 37-18 over the 55 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Astros Hitting Trends

  • They have won 50 of the 57 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • They have gone 33-7 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 70 of the 89 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • In 70 games this season with five or more runs scored, they’ved posted a record of 66-4.
  • They have won 34 of their 41 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Yankees vs. Astros Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (+103)

Over/Under Pick: Over (6.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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