The New York Yankees are at home for Game 4 of the ALCS versus the Houston Astros, Sunday at 7:07 PM ET. The Astros won the first three, and will try to sweep. Nestor Cortes pitches for New York ( to win) while Houston () will answer with Lance McCullers Jr..
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET. See the table below for the latest odds on this matchup and click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Yankees vs Astros Betting Lines
Yankees Betting Insights
- This season, the Yankees have won 96 out of the 151 games, or 63.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
- New York has a record of 91-50 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -121 on the moneyline.
- The Yankees have a 54.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Games involving New York have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 80 of 173 chances this season.
- The Yankees have an ATS record of 76-97-0 in 173 games with a spread this season.
Yankees Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 2.8 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 3.14 |
| K/9 | 8.58 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have been victorious in 11, or 47.8%, of the 23 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- This season, Houston has been victorious 10 times in 19 chances when named as an underdog of at least +103 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.
- Houston and their opponents have gone over in 62 of their 172 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Astros are 92-80-0 against the spread in their 172 games that had a posted line this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 1.45 |
| K/9 | 11.73 |
Astros Probable Pitcher – Lance McCullers Jr.
- Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Astros, his ninth of the season.
- His most recent appearance came on Saturday, Oct. 15 against the Seattle Mariners, when the right-hander tossed six scoreless innings while giving up two hits.
- McCullers is looking for his 10th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.3 innings per start.
- The Astros were named the moneyline underdog for one McCullers start this season — they lost.
- McCullers’ team has a 6-3 record in his starts this season.
- McCullers has started 10 games with a total this season. His team has not hit the over in any of them.
Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | K/9 | H/9 | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Montero | 71 | 68.1 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 2.50 |
| Héctor Neris | 70 | 65.1 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 3.86 |
| Ryne Stanek | 59 | 54.2 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 1.15 |
| Bryan Abreu | 55 | 60.1 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 1.94 |
| Ryan Pressly | 50 | 48.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 2.98 |
Yankees Probable Pitcher – Nestor Cortes
- Cortes’ team is 17-14-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The left-hander last pitched on Tuesday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed three hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
- Cortes has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
- Cortes’ team has been victorious in 67.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 21-10.
- Cortes’ team has won 20 of his 28 starts.
- Out of Cortes’ 31 starts with a total this season, 12 have hit the over.
Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 23, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.
Yankees Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Trivino | 64 | 53.2 | 67 | 4.53 | 4 | 11 |
| Clay Holmes | 62 | 63.2 | 65 | 2.69 | 7 | 20 |
| Wandy Peralta | 56 | 56.1 | 47 | 2.72 | 9 | 5 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | 50 | 48.0 | 37 | 4.12 | 10 | 2 |
| Miguel Castro | 34 | 29.0 | 31 | 4.03 | 9 | 0 |
Yankees Hitting Trends
- The Yankees have a record this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
- The Yankees have gone 27-4 in the 31 games this season when they have put up five or more extra-base hits.
- The team is 60-23 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
- The Yankees are 68-11 in the games this season that they scored at least five runs.
- The Yankees are 37-18 over the 55 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Astros Hitting Trends
- They have won 50 of the 57 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- They have gone 33-7 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have won 70 of the 89 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 70 games this season with five or more runs scored, they’ved posted a record of 66-4.
- They have won 34 of their 41 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Yankees vs. Astros Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Astros (+103)
Over/Under Pick: Over (6.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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