The NFL’s Week 7 slate is highlighted by two of the NFL’s three undefeated teams left matching up in what should be an exciting, high-scoring contest between the Titans and Steelers. The Panthers and Saints will also matchup in an important divisional game. There’s plenty of advantageous matchups for the coming week ahead with enticing player props to choose from.
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Player Prop Picks
James Conner: OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-112)
With the Titans being 5-0, many might believe they are succeeding again with a strong defense and power running game … but that hasn’t been the case. Tennessee is actually 26th in the NFL in total defense and 26th in run defense. That includes giving up 102 yards to James Robinson, 181 yards to Dalvin Cook, 52 yards on just seven carries to T.J. Yeldon and 78 yards to Melvin Gordon.
The Steelers are also one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL. Even though they do grade out much better defensively than Tennessee, we’d expect this game to be a shootout. Pittsburgh has stuck with its running game consistently even with the passing offense emerging thanks to Chase Claypool. Conner has at least 15 carries in four consecutive games and has eclipsed 100 yards in three of those games. Expect the Titans to play conservative defensively to limit Ben Roethlisberger and his weapons and allow Conner to have a solid game on the ground.
D.J. Moore: UNDER 5.5 receptions (-167)
Just a year after catching 87 passes, D.J. Moore has taken a bit of a step back so far in 2020. The third-year wide receiver and Teddy Bridgewater have connected just 4.5 times per game on average. He’s still been a big play threat, but the receptions haven’t been in abundance. Robby Anderson and Mike Davis have instead been Bridgewater’s favorite targets.
Moore has gone over 5.5 receptions just once this season. While the Saints are a middling pass defense overall, the one thing they have done is shutdown the opposing team’s top wideout. That’s mostly thanks to Marshon Lattimore doing his job well, but it’s also a case of New Orleans struggling to guard other receivers — as well as tight ends and running backs at times. Mike Evans, Keenan Allen and Kenny Golladay combined for seven catches against Lattimore and the Saints. Meanwhile, players like Mike Williams, Scotty Miller and Darren Waller had big games. Expect Moore to manage a big play or two but for most of Carolina’s targets to go to Davis and Anderson.
Alvin Kamara: To score 2+ touchdowns (+150)
The Saints are going to be extremely thin for Sunday’s divisional game against the Panthers. Top wideouts Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be out … leaving Drew Brees with limited options to throw to. Thankfully for Brees and New Orleans, Alvin Kamara can be relied upon on the ground as well as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL. He’ll likely be leaned on heavily with plenty of touches throughout the game to keep the Saints offense rolling in a key game.
Kamara already averages 20 touches per game, and that number will probably go up against Carolina. He’s scored at least twice in three of the Saints five games this season. On the other side, the Panthers have already allowed three rushing touchdowns to their opponent on two different occasions this season against the Raiders and Buccaneers. This likely won’t be too high scoring of a game … but even if the Saints get in the end zone three times, Kamara could easily be a part of two of those with favorable odds.
Patrick Mahomes: UNDER 270.5 passing yards (-106)
This is certainly an interesting play to look at. It never seems like a great idea to bet on Patrick Mahomes throwing for less than 270.5 yards, but a combination of weather, opponent and game script makes Mahomes likely to have a game similar to last week. In a rainy game against the Bills, he was again fantastic — but only threw 26 times for 225 yards while Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a field day on the ground.
It’s expected to snow for the majority of the game in Denver, and the field should already have plenty of snow on it. The Broncos are also a solid pass defense, giving up around 240 yards through the air on average, including an average of 181 yards in their last two contests. Mahomes has actually thrown for 236 yards or less in three of his six games this season … showing that Andy Reid is willing to rely on the run game when the Chiefs are in control against inferior opponents. Denver has allowed at least 109 yards on the ground in four of its five games.