Sunday Night Football Picks And Predictions: Vikings at Seahawks

Posted By Esten McLaren on October 8, 2020

Week 5’s Sunday Night Football matchup sees the Seattle Seahawks (4-0) host the Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at CenturyLink Field. Kickoff for the all-NFC matchup will be at 8:20 p.m. ET with the game available on NBC. Below, we’ll shop the betting odds and lines at the top US sportsbooks, and make our picks and best bets for the moneyline, spread and over/under for the Week 5 Sunday Night Football contest between the Vikings and Seahawks.

The Vikings are coming off their first win of the season in Week 4. They went on the road to beat the Houston Texans 31-23 as underdogs. The Seahawks moved to 4-0 with a 31-23 road win of their own over the Miami Dolphins. They covered a 4.5-point spread as favorites. Seattle opened as a 9.5-point home favorite on the betting lines last week but that number dropped to 7 by early in Week 5. The Sunday night matchup features the highest point total of the week at 57.5.

Betting advice will be offered as either a “pick” or a “lean” on each bet type. Picks are recommended with a high degree of confidence at the odds listed. Leans will be reserved in anticipation of line movement or more profitable odds. Injury news and public betting action can shift the lines throughout the week. My Sunday Night Football Betting Preview at TheLines dives deeper into the Viking-Seahawks matchup to help you prepare for your Week 5 betting picks.

Vikings at Seahawks odds

Vikings at Seahawks picks: Moneyline

The Seahawks are one of the biggest favorites of Week 5 with moneyline odds ranging from -312 to -323 at the top US sportsbooks. Only five teams are getting more profitable odds than the Vikings’ +270 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Seattle is one of seven home teams favored by at least 7 points this week, as of Thursday morning.

The Seahawks rank second in the NFL with 35.5 points per game; Minnesota is averaging just 26.5 PPG. Defensively, the Seahawks and Vikings are allowing 27.3 and 31.3 PPG, respectively. Seattle’s allowing a league-high 401.0 passing yards per game with Minnesota ranked 29th with 291.8 passing yards allowed per contest. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who enters Week 5 as the MVP betting favorite, is better equipped to take advantage of a poor pass defense than Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Wilson leads the league in completion percentage (75.2), touchdowns (16), and quarterback rating (136.7). Cousins is completing just 62% of his passes with 883 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions through four games.

The greatest injury concern on either side for Week 5 is for Seahawks S Jamal Adams. He’s trending toward a second straight missed game due to a groin injury.

Trust in Wilson in a lopsided quarterback matchup and back the Seahawks to win outright, but there’s much better value to be had on the spread.

The pick: Seahawks (-323 or better)

Vikings at Seahawks picks: Against the spread

As noted above, the Seahawks are one of the heaviest favorites of Week 5 while laying 7 points at home. It’s the largest spread they’ve given up this season, but they’re one of just two teams 4-0 ATS. They win by an average of 12.8 points per game and cover by an extra 5.0 PPG. The Vikings are 2-2 ATS, lose by an average of 4.8 PPG, and fall an average of 2.5 PPG below the line.

Seattle has won by 13, 5, 7, and 8 points this season. Minnesota has lost by 9, 17, and 1, and won by 8 points last week. The Seahawks have been outscored in the fourth quarter in three of four games this season and the Vikings outscored the Green Bay Packers 24-14 in the fourth quarter of their 43-34 Week 1 loss.

Expect the back door to be left wide open in this one with Wilson leading Seattle to yet another big lead. The lean is to the Vikings +7, but wait this one out in hopes of getting a line of 7.5 on the weekend.

The lean: Vikings +7 or better

Vikings at Seahawks picks: Over/Under (total)

Both teams are 3-1 against the Over/Under a quarter of the way through the 2020 season. Vikings games have topped the projected total by 9.0 points per game while Seahawks games have gone 10.9 points above the line on average.

The Week 5 line of 57.5 is the highest of the week and it’s the highest of the season for either team. The books are adjusting totals based on the early-season surge in scoring around the league. Sunday Night Football spots also typically come with an inflated number with a national audience wanting to see touchdowns.

Take the Under even with a lackluster defensive matchup. Some books have the vig on the Over, so there’s value to be had when shopping around.

The pick: UNDER 57.5 or better

Best SNF prop bet

First half spread: Seahawks -4 or better

Following suit of the above, back the Seahawks to get out to the early lead. The Seahawks are sixth in the NFL with 17.0 points per game in the first half; the Vikings are just 21st with 11.8 first-half PPG. Seattle jumps to second with 18.5 second-half PPG, but Minnesota moves up to fifth with an average of 14.8 second-half points.

The first half spread is less expensive than the first quarter line of -1.5. Back the Seahawks to jump out to yet another early lead in Week 5.

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Esten McLaren

Esten grew up on a golf course and made the switch from real-life trunk slammer to the daily fantasy realm as soon as the game was launched. He's been betting golf regularly for the better part of the last 10 years, most memorably winning big on Rory McIlroy's 2014 Open title, but a trip to Carnoustie for the 2018 Open and a walk around St. Andrews share the honor for best golf highlight. He has written about all major sports at FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and SportsBookWire.

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