Just seven teams remain unbeaten going into Week 4 – the Bills, Titans, Steelers, Chiefs, Packers, Bears, and Seahawks. Two of the seven, the Steelers and Titans, were scheduled to play, but a rash of COVID-19 positive tests has delayed the game. That leaves 13 matchups remaining in Week 4, so let’s dive into the best player prop bets for the upcoming week.
NFL Week 4 player props picks
DeVante Parker: OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Seattle Seahawks are the NFL’s 32nd-ranked team against the wide receiver position, allowing league-highs in receptions and yards (second in TDs). They’ve given up 100 yards to six receivers in three games, including top targets Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman, and Michael Gallup (average of those four: 151 yards). Jones and Edelman failed to find the end zone, but there were multiple opportunities for them and the receptions just kept piling up. Also important: Seattle is allowing the second-least rushing yards in the NFL through three games.
Each game so far this season, DeVante Parker has seen his numbers increase– in both yards and receptions– and scored a touchdown in their Week 2 matchup against the Bills. If Miami isn’t able to get Myles Gaskin going early (12.7 carries, 50.7 yards per game, zero rushing touchdowns), then the opportunities will quickly rise for Parker. His only target competition is tight end Mike Gesicki, who has just 12 receptions on the year. Expect Parker to have a day against this Seattle secondary.
Dalton Schultz: to score first TD (+1700)
If you aren’t feeling risky, you could take Schultz to score a TD (+310) at any point in the ballgame, but this prop has some serious payout for little put down. The Browns are atrocious when it comes to defending the tight end; they’ve given up three touchdowns to tight ends in three games (including two to Ravens’ Mark Andrews). Even Bengals’ C. J. Uzomah scored a touchdown before going down with a season-ending injury in Week 2. There’s a great chance Cleveland gives one up to Schultz, especially with so much focus on so many other skill positions.
What makes the first touchdown interesting is how the game could shape out. In both games that the Browns had the football first, they failed to score at all. Should the Cowboys get the first opportunity to score, especially near the goalline, all of the attention will be on Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas likely knows this and it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for a play action to be drawn up inside the red zone.
Odell Beckham Jr.: UNDER 65.5 receiving yards (-110)
The primary image that comes to mind when you think OBJ vs the Cowboys is that remarkable one-handed catch that may never be bested. Association of that catch with his performances against Dallas, though, is dangerous. Beckham Jr. crossed the 100 yard mark just once (in 2014), and other than that, had over 65.5 yards twice. Since joining the Browns, he’s averaged 4.5 receptions per game.
Analysts are projecting OBJ to have a huge game against a Cowboys defense that bleeds yards and points to opposing offenses. However, Baker Mayfield likely won’t be beating Dallas with his arm and OBJ won’t see a glut of targets. Instead, the focus will be on superstar backfield tandem Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this Sunday. A bet on over 65.5 yards is suggesting Beckham Jr. will have a career day against the Cowboys, which feels like an easy bet against.
James Robinson: OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-110)
The analytics world hasn’t yet caught up with Jaguars back James Robinson, who’s been lighting up the league (12th in rushing yards). The story in Jacksonville up until this point has been Gardner Minshew and his arm, but Robinson is the player giving the Jags a balanced attack and forces opposing defenses to be honest, playing both the run and pass.
Robinson is sitting at 70 yards rushing per game and is going up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league (181.7 rush yards allowed per game, 31st). To think Cincinnati will hold the rookie phenom under his season average is a bad bet to make, so we’ll take the over. Even more impressive, Robinson rushed for 1899 yards and 18 touchdowns his senior year of college. He’s a dangerous back that likely won’t be kept in check Sunday.
Lamar Jackson: to score 2+ touchdowns (+700)
Last week, the reigning MVP looked elementary against the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. His legs made an appearance a time or two, but Jackson was held in check from wire to wire and the Ravens know it. Expect Harbaugh to unleash Lamar this coming Sunday. However, two rushing (or receiving) touchdowns for a quarterback is difficult.
At +700, it’s worth a try. Lamar Jackson rushed for 7 touchdowns in 2019, including for two scores against the Patriots in Week 8. With such a ferocious pass rush, Jackson should be able to break contain and find seams in between the tackles to make some big plays happen with his feet. This is a bold prediction, but it’s worth a few bucks.