We have a robust 13 game slate this evening for NBA daily plays and a lot of money to be won on this big tournament night. We have some interesting lines today that will make this a tough slate to navigate. There’s eight games with totals over 200, but only half of them have workable spreads. The other four have some blowout risk to them and figuring out which games to stay away from seems to be the key to the evening. Knicks/Pacers, Lakers/Heat, 76ers/Thunder, Kings/Spurs, and Bucks/Warriors all have spreads of 9 or more. These games all could turn into laughers tonight. Every other game falls between a 193 total and a 204 total, so there’s definitely a lot of ways you can go here. The Blazers/Clippers game should be a good one to target tonight. It’s the hammer game and probably my favorite spot, so I think you need at least some exposure to it. Be sure to check out our pivot man section at the end of the article to highlight some injury news and potential swerves if things break before line up lock. For now though let’s take a look at the SHEETS and see who is standing out:
If you haven’t been following the Lakers closely then you may think I have gone LINSANE, but Linsanity is back and you should take notice. Jeremy Lin is seeing 30+ minutes over his last three games and has put up 29.5 followed by two straight 40 point games. His price is dirt cheap all over and while I am not a huge fan of his real life game, his fantasy stat lines are always nice. He contributes a handful of rebounds and assists every game, but he is now taking over 10 shots a game which is boosting his points. Give a guy who has been getting 12-15 combined rebounds and assists a 20 point game to go with it and you got a 30-40 point scorer. On DK he is $4100, FD he is 5200, and Aces he is $4300. That means he needs about 26 points on DK and FD and 30 on aces to make value. He has been closer to 40 recently meaning he is returning 8 points per $1000 on FD, 10 on DK, and 9 on Aces. Those are GPP winning type of numbers. I think his stats and minutes are safe, because the Lakers realy do not have anybody on that roster. The Heat had been good against PGs, but that was back when they were playing very slow paced games. Their scoring and opponents scoring are both up recently and I think this could be a nice spot for an outperformance by Lin. The salary relief and upside combo he gives you are tough to match and I will be using him on all sites today, especially in my GPPs.
My second favorite play I like only in certain spots, but that is Mo Williams. There is no doubt he is the lead dog in Charlotte now and he has proved he can still get it done. Three straight games he has scored in the mid to upper 40s on DK and that is where his price has risen the most. At $7000 he is a good cash game candidate, but I think his upside potential is capped with the sky high price. On FD at only $6200 though he is a steal. Even on Aces where his price has stayed at the $4750 level I think you are getting a discount.
Those are my two favorite plays on an Average point per dollar basis, but for raw scores I think both Chris Paul and Ricky Rubio are in play again tonight. Rubio has been sensational lately. He has one of those type of games where every night he is a triple double threat. His court vision is elite and he knows how to run a basketball team. He has played the sport as a pro since early in his teenage years and it shows on the floor. He single handedly upped the pace of the Wolves on his return and he will need to look to do a little more if Pek and Martin are out again today. His price has risen, but so have his minutes. The way he fills up the stat sheet a few extra minutes can really benefit his scores. They have a high total game against the Nuggets tonight who are devoid of a rim protector at the moment and I expect another big showing from Ricky. His price is elevated, but based off projections he is still listed as one of the top APP guys today and the 3rd highest projected scorer at the PG position.
The only guy projected for a bigger game is Chris Paul. I really like this spot for him against the Blazers and Lilliard defense in a high total match up that is expected to stay close. While I think he can reach his projection, the Price on him has made me pause. At $10200 on DK I would need over 60 out of him. At $7K on Aces and $10300 on FD I would be looking for over fifty. While I think he can get me that 50 I do not see enough upside for him to blow by that number and put me in a position to win something big. He is a great cash game play as I think he will be heavily involved tonight, but for GPPs I think the upside plays are the others I mentioned who have the chance to really blow by their numbers.
I will not be paying up to the top here tonight as I like two of the upper mid tier guys the most. Dwayne Wade and Victor Oladipo will be my targets today. Both guys are playing in games that are paced up for their teams and both guys play a major role in those offenses. Both are also 20-30% cheaper than the guys at the top of the position today and have better match ups and projections. Wade has put up close to 40 DK points in back to back games and I like his chances to tick up his numbers with the pace today. Oladipo has less upside to me, but is still a good bet in a paced up game of his own to reach 6 points per $1000. I would prefer Wade where I had to pick a SG, but would not mind seeing both of them together on a FD GPP. There’s enough PG value to not punt the position today and I think I am leaning that way as of now.
If I do need to go cheaper though I really like Rodney Stuckey and JJ Reddick. Stuckey is the more volatile and has more upside. He has also been putting up some sick 30/40 fantasy point games lately. Reddick is more of a cheap cash game filler to me, but with Barnes and Crawford both Questionable I can see the upside cash for him too. Guys have been using Will Barton and KCP, but Reddick is safer and has the same upside potential to me as those guys. He also plays in a better game to target today and is especially useful with the 3pt bonus from DK. Both of them make great plays on FD and DK, but I would shy away on Aces unless I needed to go cheap to make someone I love fit.
I have one guy I will be using all over tonight and that is Andrew Wiggins. This is especially true if Kevin Martin is out again today. Wiggins price has dipped back to the mid $6K range and with no Martin we are paying for the guy who we had no problem shelling out $7K+ for before he returned. He has the added benefit of Rubio to get him the ball now and also is in one of the better games to target for fantasy goodness tonight. His projections are reading as the top value play and second highest scorer at the position, so with his friendly price tag I think it’s a no brainer.
To me he is head and shoulders above the rest today, but if I did need a second guy I would look towards the mid range. Guys like Middleton, Harris, Deng, Batum, and Gilchrist are all options for me at the moment. I do not really love any of them, but think all of them could be solid plays. I’m hoping some injury news makes one really stand out above the rest, but right now I think all of those mentioned are safe cash game plays with little GPP upside. If I can find a punt open up I have faith in I could be easily talked off of all of them today. Middleton may be in a blowout, Harris has not seen an upside lately at his price, Deng is never a huge upside guy, Batum has been pedestrian, and Gilchrist has a slow paced game. If I had to choose one I think it would be Batum due to the Vegas line, but like I said I am not all in on it. SF is tough today and likely will be a differentiator on rosters across all sites.
Today seems like a min max day for me on two PF sites and the reason is I love Marcus Morris at his price. Markieff is not getting it done lately and Marcus has been playing very well. He is showing up as one of the greenest numbers at the position today in what is expected to be a high scoring game with a hot pace. At his price you really only need about 25 points out of him and he has been right there in five of his last six games. I’m not thrilled with the mid tier options today and using him allows me to pay up for one of the three top guys I do like.
Now If I have the cash left over to do so I would gladly take two of these three, but if not I would look for the one who fits in price wise. The three guys I like today are Serge Ibaka, Greg Monroe, and Derrick Favors. Favors is probably my favorite play of the three. He is the cheaper option and has been putting up consistently good numbers. His team is paced up today and he has been the main weapon for them recently. Ibaka has also been great, but the blow out potential gives me pause there. By default and a discounted price I would say that has me looking Monroe’s way second most. On FD I think all three are in play. On DK I would lean Favors and on Aces Ibaka is showing up with an elite level projection. Like I said I like all of them and would use more than one if salary permitted, but lately I have been having to use Morris with one of them to make other stuff fit.
The reason I have been advocating taking the savings at PF is because I want to pay up at center tonight. The main guy I like based on price and projection is Marc Gasol. Gasol is priced a tier below the most expensive options and is playing in a paced up game without teammate Zach Randolph available. He is right up there on projections with all the other centers priced above him, but is 15-20% cheaper in all spots. Of the safe plays tonight he has the highest APP at the position which makes him almost a lock for my cash games and given the uptick in pace and usage I think he is also my favorite GPP play.
The other guy I will be using up here is DeAndre Jordan who has been phenomenal. This guy is a rebounding machine and you can’t go wrong slotting him into your line ups lately. He is pricey than Gasol which is my only hold up, but he also has more upside potential. While I will be rolling a lot of Gasol in cash I am not afraid to use DeAndre in GPPs. If he goes 20/20 which he has done a bunch recently I would not be shocked. Sometimes overthinking things is not worth the hassle. He is over 10% cheaper than teammate Chris Paul and lately they have both had the same production. Tonight’s match up is not overly tough for him and he will need to play well to keep them in the game.
The last guy I am considering is Gorgui Dieng. This one rides on Pekovic being out again, but if that is the case he is too cheap based on the minutes he should see. They play in a high total game and if he can get the minutes then he will get the points. It’s purely dependent on Pek though, so keep an eye on the news.
In our pivot man section we go over some of the injury news for the day and give you an idea of who might be a good option if late breaking news takes out some of the questionable guys.
If Pekovic is out, then Gorgui Dieng becomes a must play for me. He is priced as a back up and we have seen him produce like a $7-$8K player already this year as a starter, so if he gets that role he is way too cheap all over. If Pek plays I will definitely back off of Dieng some.
If Kevin Martin is out, Then Wiggins get bumped up to super elite must use status. I like him regardless, but without the other gunner he should see 15+ shots.
If Tobias Harris sits, I tick up Vucevic and Oladipo. We have seen that play out before the usage of those two tends to go up to cover the abscense. Tobias was limited at shoot around, so keep an eye on it.
Jose Calderon is out, so Langston Galloway has safe minutes. He is a decent cash game cost saver, but his upside at his price seems limited.
Kyle Lowry is likely out, which means bumps up for Lou Williams and Grevis Vasquez. Kyrie defense is pretty weak, so I could see one of them doing well. My money would be on Williams for upside, but Grevis is safe with his low price and ability to stuff a stat sheet.
Nurkic is out, so Faried is probably the beneficiary. Shaw was playing with his minutes, but in the post Shaw era he started off getting a lot of minutes. He’s the best option they have for a big man, so he should be on the floor.
If Zach Randolph is out, we have a little problem here. Tony Allen has been suspended and Beno Udrih has the flu. That’s three rotation players who average a combined 90 minutes a game that need to get soaked up. Courtney Lee, Jeff Green, and Kosta Koufos should all see more minutes. I also think it puts more on the shoulders of Gasol and Conley so keep that in mind.
If Robert Covington is out, Jakarr Sampson had a few nice games in his absence. Last out he had 27 DK points for $3K which is awesome if you can get that. Honestly with no Covington it should be a low out though, so I’m not loving it, but it’s an option.
If Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes are out, you got to look at JJ Reddick and Austin Rivers to pick up the slack. For those who just threw up in their mouths that I mentioned Rivers, just remember he is getting the minutes and is minimum priced. He’s not great, but he can make value. Reddick should see more shots as well in a high total game, so he is the upside guy. Honestly though if both are out I think it benefits Paul and Jordan most.
Good luck tonight guys. I know I got some tickets reserved for the $1 Million slam on FD, so let’s all go make some money today.