DraftKings NFL DFS Picks, Predictions And Lineup Strategy For Week 4

Posted By Nate Weitzer on September 30, 2020 - Last Updated on October 4, 2020
Saints Rams Picks

The 2020-21 NFL season is in full swing and there are huge Week 4 DFS contests being offered on DraftKings with big prize money up for grabs.

In this weekly column, we will identify the best plays, values, and tournament options for your NFL DFS lineups. We’ll also offer the best “fades” at each position, indicating which players to avoid when building your lineups.

Keep in mind that some of the plays offered are better for “Cash” games, i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up formats that require a more conservative approach. Some plays are recommended for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments where it’s necessary to take more risk in the hopes of separating from a large field. Those GPP plays can also be ideal for Best Ball formats where players with higher upside are valuable.

For those interested in the DFS Single-Game Slate contests, here’s a quick recap:

In the “Showdown” mode on DraftKings, there are five utility spots and a “Captain” slot, who receives 1.5x multiplier for all DK points accrued. Pricing differs for players when selected in the Captain spot versus the FLEX spots, with all players required to fit under a $50k salary cap. All options are in play from QBs, RBs and WRs, to kickers and D/ST from each team.

Keep an eye on injury news right up until kickoff since things can change quickly in the NFL. Please note any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.


Fantasy Football Millionaire: $20 entry, $4M guaranteed – $1,000,000 to 1st!
Play-Action: $3 entry, $1.6M guaranteed – $100,000 to 1st!
Slant: $9 entry, $500k guaranteed – $50,000 to 1st!

Top NFL DFS DraftKings Plays for Week 4


Best Play: Russell Wilson ($7.8k)

Wilson is the MVP through three games and is obviously a rock solid DFS option with a hefty floor-ceiling combination. He draws another juicy matchup in Week 4 against a Dolphins team that yielded a 131.1 passer rating through two games before clamping down on the Jags last Thursday. Miami has coughed up 11 pass plays of 20-plus yards and the Seahawks have allowed a league-high 18 such pass plays. Wilson throws the most accurate deep ball in football and is being forced into shootouts due to Seattle’s defensive issues. Chris Carson (ankle) will also miss this Sunday, forcing more onto Wilson’s plate. 

Value Play: Drew Brees ($5.8k)

The Saints are off to a slow start and that makes a Drew Brees and Michael Thomas ($7.6k) as cheap as it’s been in recent memory. Thomas is expected to return from an ankle sprain to give the Saints a boost against a Lions team that has coughed up 7 passing TDs and is allowing a 94.2 passer rating. Detroit confused Kyler Murray with muddled coverages last week, but Brees is way too savvy to struggle indoors against a talent-deficient unit.

GPP Play: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5.4k)

For many of the reasons Russell Wilson is a top play, Fitzpatrick also has tremendous appeal in Week 4. He’ll face a Seahawks secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense and has coughed up a league-high 1,292 passing yards. The Dolphins probably won’t be able to run consistently against Seattle’s tougher front, so Fitz will be forced to throw early and often to keep pace with the presumptive MVP, and he has a stable of dangerous receivers to target. 

Fade: Dak Prescott ($7.2k)

It’s a scary fade considering Prescott has topped 450 yards in consecutive weeks, but the Cowboys probably won’t have that same type of game script at home this Sunday. They’re facing a Browns team that is second to only the Rams with a 52.6% run-play percentage this year and ranks 25th in pace of play. Cleveland may try to burn clock to keep the dangerous Dallas offense on the sidelines and could force this game Under it’s lofty total (55 at DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Running Back

Best Play: Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5.8k)

We’re skipping over the obvious and expensive top plays (Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott) this week to recommend a back in the mid-tier price range. The Rams have the highest run-play percentage (54.2%) in the NFL and Henderson has become the lead dog in that backfield following injuries to Cam Akers (ribs) and Malcolm Browns (ribs). He splits snaps with Brown last week, but turned his 21 touches into 120 scrimmage yards while Brown plodded for 19 yards on 7 totes. The Giants defense has been efficient against the run, but has coughed up 369 ground yards due in part to negative game script, and the Rams (-13) should roll this Sunday.

Value Play: David Johnson ($5.6k)

The Texans opened the season with a ridiculously tough three-game stretch and finally draw a cupcake at home against the Vikings. Minnesota ranks 23rd in DVOA rush defense and just provided a “get-right” matchup for Derrick Henry. Now the Vikings will spend some of their week in quarantine after the Titans saw a smattering of positive tests in their organization. Mike Zimmer’s squad is coughing up the seventh-most DK PPG to opposing backs and the Texans will scheme DJ the ball in multiple ways with Duke Johnson (ankle) hobbled.

GPP Play: James Robinson ($6.5k)

His stats speak volumes, but James Robinson is still so far from a recognizable name that it’s hard to imagine he sees a huge ownership rate in Week 4. The unquestioned lead dog in Jacksonville’s backfield faces a Bengals team that has coughed up the second-most rushing yards (545) at a rate of 5.0 YPC. Cincy is playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the NFL and that should provide more opportunities for Robinson, who is averaging 34 snaps and 17.6 touches per game this season.  

Fade: Nick Chubb ($7.0k)

He’s paid off with the Browns favored in consecutive games, but Cleveland is a road dog this week in Dallas and Kareem Hunt ($6.2k) could see more action if they’re in comeback mode. Chubb has just 3 receptions in 3 games and Hunt is a vastly superior receiving back who saw 6 targets in Cleveland’s Week 1 loss. Dallas has only allowed 2 rushing TDs and is holding backs to a modest 3.8 YPC.  


Wide Receiver

Best Play: Tyler Lockett ($7.0k)

Tyreek Hill has averaged 112.3 receiving YPG and 16.85 yards per reception over three regular season meetings with the Patriots and is an option for Sun-Mon contests with that game likely PPD to Monday. An easy pivot for Sunday contests is Tyler Lockett, Russell Wilson’s favorite target in a potential shootout against the Dolphins’ 26th-rated pass defense. While D.K. Metcalf contends with big CB Xavien Howard, Lockett will be free to burn Miami’s backups with Byron Jones (groin) still out. Wilson is playing at an MVP level and that gives Lockett a fantastic floor-ceiling combination. 

Value Play: Keenan Allen ($6.5k)

Allen isn’t cheap, but he’s a great Cash play on a slate with few reliable and cheap options. The dynamic receiver had a breakout game with Justin Herbert starting last Sunday, catching 13 of a whopping 19 targets for 136 yards and a TD and nearly adding a 2-point conversion. The Chargers (+7) could be chasing points again this week and they’ll have to throw often regardless against a Bucs team that sells out to stop the run and is vulnerable to routes over the middle of the field.

GPP Play: Odell Beckham Jr. ($5.8k)

If Odell doesn’t pop in this matchup, the trade rumors might start to swirl. The Cowboys secondary has been pathetic with a league-high 9 receiving TDs allowed and 12.2 yards per reception. Their starting CBs (Anthony Brown and Chidobe Awuzie) are both on I.R. and they’ve had poor safety play, so Beckham should be able to get open downfield routinely and he could post a big line if Cleveland is playing from behind. 

Fade: Allen Robinson II ($6.7k)

The Bears offense came alive late to hand the Falcons another deflating loss, but they won’t sneak up on the Colts this Sunday. Indy’s defense is rolling with just 281 passing yards and 6 interceptions over their last two wins. Xavier Rhodes remains a shutdown force at corner and he could shadow Robinson in an effort to derail Chicago’s passing game. 

Tight End

Best Play: Mark Andrews ($6.0k)

After another loss to the Chiefs, the Ravens should take out their frustrations on Washington. Andrews nearly missed a TD on Monday and is overdue for a score against a team that coughed up the third-most receiving TDs (9) to TEs last season. Washington will have to play zone at times to keep eyes on Lamar Jackson and that will open things up for Andrews to drift in behind LBs for potential scores.

Value Play: Mo Alie-Cox ($3.9k)

Even with Jack Doyle (ankle) back, Alie-Cox remained involved in the Colts downfield passing attack. He caught 3 balls for 52 yards and a TD and clearly could’ve produced more if the Colts weren’t dominating the lowly Jets. Winning at Chicago is a much tougher task and the Bears have allowed 15 receptions to TEs this season after coughing up the third-most receptions (96) to the position last year.

GPP Play: Rob Gronkowski ($3.6k)

The Bucs and Gronk tried to misdirect the public by affirming that he’s been brought in as a “blocking TE” only to pepper him with 7 targets in Denver. Brady narrowly missed a 20-plus yard TD pass to Gronk in the first half and is clearly looking to get his old running mate involved. With Chris Godwin (hamstring) ruled out and Mike Evans likely to be shadowed by Casey Heyward, Gronk could see an even bigger workload this week. 

Fade: Travis Kelce ($6.8k)

While the Chiefs baffled the Ravens with misdirection plays, the Patriots won’t be so easily fooled. Kelce does much of his damage on those unconventional motions and the Pats have plenty of speed at LB to counter those looks. Even without Patrick Chung, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest receptions (8) to TEs through three games. Kelce has 12 catches for 127 scoreless yards over his last 2 meetings withe the Pats. 


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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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