It’s a marquee all-NFC showdown on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. The Green Bay Packers (2-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (1-1) with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC and NBCSports.com. Our Sunday Night Football betting breakdown at PlayPicks gives you the best picks for the moneyline, spread and over/under between the Packers and Saints. We’ll compare the betting odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in order to get the best value for our Week 3 Sunday Night Football bets.
Actionable betting advice on each bet type will be offered as a “pick” or a “lean”. Consider placing bets as soon as possible for picks in order to get the most profitable odds. Leans are contingent on the odds and lines potentially shifting to more desirable numbers later in the week. Injury news or public betting action can help us get a better bet. The Week 3 matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees is sure to get plenty of action with the Packers and Saints being very public teams with a national audience on Sunday Night Football.
Before finalizing your Week 3 bets for SNF, be sure to check out our Sunday Night Football Betting Preview at TheLines. There, we analyze the on-field matchup and look at each team’s betting results through the first two games of the 2020 NFL season.
Packers at Saints odds
Packers at Saints picks: Moneyline
The undefeated Packers come into Sunday Night Football as underdogs for the second time through two road games thus far. Typically beneficiaries of one of the greatest home-field advantages in football, the Saints will play without an audience at the Superdome for the second time this season. It didn’t hurt them in Week 1, as they beat the NFC South-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-23, but they’re coming off an ugly 34-24 road loss against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Green Bay has comfortably beaten NFC North rivals in the Minnesota Vikings (43-34) and Detroit Lions (42-21). They were 1-point road underdogs against the Vikings and 7-point home favorites against the Lions.
Both teams are at risk of not having their top receiver in Week 3. Saints WR Michael Thomas missed the Week 2 game due to an ankle injury. It was initially expected to keep him out multiple weeks, and he should be considered doubtful for Sunday Night Football. Packers WR Davante Adams is dealing with a hamstring issue. He has 192 receiving yards and two touchdowns through two games.
The Saints’ passing game struggled against the Raiders with Thomas out. Brees completed 26 of 38 passes for 312 touchdowns but just one touchdown. RB Alvin Kamara was the leading receiver with nine catches for 95 yards, while WR Tre’Quan Smith added five receptions and 86 yards. No other player had more than three catches or 25 yards. TE Jared Cook caught Brees’ lone touchdown pass.
A rejuvenated Rodgers has been the better of the two quarterbacks early in the season and Adams can be considered more likely to play than Thomas. Take the value of the plus-money on the Packers without needing to worry about a hostile road environment.
The pick: Packers (+142 or better)
Packers at Saints picks: Against the spread
The Packers have covered the spread by double digits in each of their first two games, once as underdogs and once as favorites. The Saints have been favored in each of their first two games and are 1-1 straight up and against the spread. The Week 3 spread opened last week with the Saints as 5.5-point favorites but was tightened based on the differing results of the team’s Week 2 games and the resulting betting action.
Saints head coach Sean Payton has his team 25-20 against the spread with a rest disadvantage since assuming the head coach role in 2006. New Orleans has won those games by an average of 3.3 points per game and covered by an extra 0.9 PPG. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 2-1 ATS with the rest advantage in his much smaller sample size since taking over from Mike McCarthy for the beginning of last season.
Liking the Packers to win outright as road dogs, we can get some insurance with the Saints spotting them 3.5 points. Get this number early, as the line is likely to shift toward the visitors if Thomas is ruled out, and with 64% of the early money coming in on the Packers.
The pick: Packers +3.5 or better
Packers at Saints picks: Over/Under (total)
Both the Packers and Saints are 2-0 against the Over/Under to start the season. Green Bay has topped the point projections by 22.5 points per game and New Orleans has played 9.5 points above the line through two games. The Week 3 SNF total is just the fourth-highest projection of the week.
Despite these early trends, the Week 3 total hinges on the availability of either or both of Adams and Thomas. If both are ruled out, I like the Under. Both receiving corps are rather underwhelming without their three-time Pro Bowl top options.
Take the Over, so long as one of the two is active Sunday night. It’s just a lean for now until more is known about their respective injuries later in the week.
The lean: OVER 52.5 or better
Best SNF prop bet
Total points by Packers: Over 24.5 or better
The more profitable bet in correlation with the Over/Under is the Over on the Packers’ projected team total. I like them to win outright and Adams is the more likely of the two star receivers to suit up.
Green Bay has also put up 43 and 42 points in its first two games of the season. The Packers can be held to three fewer scores still top their relatively modest Week 3 projection. New Orleans has given up 23 and 34 points to the Buccaneers and Raiders, respectively. It’ll face its toughest defensive test yet against Rodgers and RB Aaron Jones.