The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 2 in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at CenturyLink Field with the game available on NBC and NBCSports.com. Both teams come into the game at 1-0 after convincing season-opening victories. Our Sunday Night Football betting breakdown at PlayPicks takes you through the picks and best bets for the Patriots-Seahawks’ moneyline, spread and over/under. We’ll shop the NFL betting odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in search of the best value, and offer up the best game or player prop for the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup.
All tips will be offered as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks are actionable at the odds or lines mentioned with a high degree of confidence. Leans may require waiting for line movement toward safer or more profitable numbers closer to game time. Quite a bit of movement should be expected this week between two popular public favorites.
In combination with weekly SNF betting picks for PlayPicks, I’ll be providing a full Sunday Night Football Betting Preview at TheLines each week. There, we recap each team’s opening week win, tee up Week 2’s on-field matchup, and look at how each team fared from a betting perspective in Week 1.
Patriots at Seahawks odds
Patriots at Seahawks picks: Moneyline
The Seahawks are comfortably favored in their home opener, even without their customary advantage of a raucous crowd. The crowd didn’t help the Seahawks much in their 11-5 2019 campaign, however, as they went just 4-4 at home and 7-1 on the road. New England was 6-2 both at home and on the road last season.
The biggest change for either team this offseason was the Patriots’ quarterback change. Tom Brady was subbed out for Cam Newton on a bargain free-agent contract officially announced July 8. The 2015 MVP was released by the Carolina Panthers following a 2019 season lost to injury after just two games. He is 1-5 in six games against the Seahawks with the Panthers. His last game against them was a 30-27 Panthers loss in 2018.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick let Cam be Cam in Week 1. He rushed 15 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns, showing no ill-effects of his lost 2019 campaign. He went 9-for-11 out of the shotgun, and 7-for-8 against the blitz and on play action.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson turned in one of the top quarterback performances in Week 1. He went 31-for-35 for 322 yards and four touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 143.1. He is 2-0 in his regular-season career against the Pats with a 128.5 quarterback rating, but he also has the memorable Super Bowl loss on his record.
Seattle remains more heavily favored by the Super Bowl LV futures odds at both DraftKings and FanDuel at +1600 after Week 1. The Seahawks are projected for 10 wins with the Patriots win total line set at 9 at DraftKings.
Take the Seahawks to squeak out a win in a coaching battle between Pete Carroll and Belichick.
The pick: Seahawks (-205 or better)
Patriots at Seahawks picks: Against the spread
Both teams covered the spread with ease in their Week 1 wins. The Seahawks opened last week as road favorites against the Atlanta Falcons but closed as 1-point underdogs. They covered by 14 points in the 13-point victory. The Patriots, favored by 7.5 points at home to the AFC East-rival Miami Dolphins, won 21-11 to cover by an extra 2.5 points.
New England was 8-7-1 against the spread last regular season; Seattle was 7-8-1 ATS. The Seahawks are 35-27-2 ATS as home favorites under Carroll since the beginning of the 2010 season. New England is 11-4 ATS as a road dog in that same window in an absurdly small sample size.
This line opened last week with the Seahawks at -3.5 and has since been bet up to a full 4. Wait it out until closer to Sunday evening to see if we can get another half-point and back the Patriots to cover on the road and keep it within a field goal.
The lean: Patriots -4 (-110 or better)
Patriots at Seahawks picks: Over/Under (total)
Expectations are high for the defenses in this one. The Patriots are fronted by reigning Defensive Player of the Year CB Stephon Gilmore. S Jamal Adams, acquired by the Seahawks via trade from the New York Jets in the offseason, made his impact felt instantly against the Falcons in Week 1. He recorded a sack, two QB hits, two tackles for loss, and 12 combined tackles while playing 100% of the defensive snaps.
The Seahawks played one of the highest-scoring games of Week 1 against the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They topped the projected point total by 13.5 points. Conversely, the Patriots and Dolphins played to one of the lowest Week 1 totals with just 32 points while falling 9.5 points shy of the projected number.
The last five head-to-head meetings between the Seahawks and Patriots each played to a total of at least 45 points including Super Bowl XLIX. Since I like the Pats to cover the spread and keep it a tight game, the coinciding play is the Under. They’ll look to control the clock and keep the ball away from Wilson. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely to stick Adams on Newton to contain his mobility.
As this is Sunday Night Football, the expectation is for the total to be bet up by Sunday evening. Let it get as high as we can before jumping in with an Under bet.
The lean: Under 45 (-110 or better)
Best SNF prop bet
Seahawks to win by 1-6 points (+320 or better)
This is the best value on the board and even helps hedge against our Patriots ATS lean. Favored to win by four points, the odds soar when expanding the Seahawks’ winning margin to 1-6 points. Belichick won’t get blown out on the road without fans, but I still like the Seahawks to win. Seven of the Seahawks’ 11 wins last year came by six or fewer points and the Pats lost just twice by seven or more.