Dolphins Vs Patriots: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 1

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 10, 2022 - Last Updated on September 5, 2022

It’ll be the Miami Dolphins (0-0) against the New England Patriots (0-0) in Week 1. The Dolphins (-3) and the Patriots (+145 on the moneyline to win) kick off the action on September 11, 2022 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. A point total of 46 points has been set for the contest by oddsmakers.

The betting insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 11, 2022 at 1:48 PM ET. See the table below for the latest odds on this matchup and click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Dolphins Vs Patriots Odds

Computer Pick

Computer picks for Dolphins vs Patriots
ATS pick Over/Under pick
Patriots (+3) Under (46)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Rankings (2021)

Dolphins Patriots
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 20.1 (22) 27.2 (6)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 21.9 (16) 17.8 (2)
Off. Yards per Play (Rank) 4.8 (28) 5.7 (10)
Def. Yards per Play (Rank) 5.3 (11) 5.1 (3)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 26 (25) 23 (17)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 26 (8) 30 (3)

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • The Dolphins were 10-6-1 against the spread last year.
  • Miami’s ATS record as at least 3-point favorites was 4-2 last year.
  • Miami had seven of its 17 games go over the point total last season.
  • Dolphins games had more than 46 points scored on five occasions last season.
  • Miami games last season posted an average total of 44.0, which is 2.0 points fewer than the total for this matchup.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Against the spread, the Patriots were 10-7-0 last season.
  • As 3-point underdogs or greater, New England went 3-1 against the spread last year.
  • The Patriots had nine of its 17 games go over the point total last season.
  • New England games finished with over 46 points scored nine times last season.
  • Games involving the Patriots last year averaged 44.1 points per game, a 1.9-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Teddy Bridgewater had a passing stat line last year of 3,052 yards with a 66.9% completion rate (285-for-426), 18 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and an average of 218.0 yards per game.
  • Myles Gaskin rushed for 612 yards last year on 173 carries (36.0 yards per game) and scored three times.
  • Chase Edmonds collected 592 rushing yards on 116 carries and two touchdowns last season. He also made a mark receiving with 43 catches for 311 yards.
  • Tyreek Hill picked up 111 receptions for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He was targeted 159 times, and averaged 72.9 yards per game.
  • Jaylen Waddle also impressed receiving last season. He bagged 104 receptions for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. He was targeted 140 times.
  • Mike Gesicki hauled in 73 passes for 780 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 45.9 yards per game last season.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah amassed 9.0 sacks, 9.0 TFL and 41 tackles last season.
  • Last season Jerome Baker racked up 92 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one interception.
  • Last season Xavien Howard had a huge stat line of five interceptions, 50 tackles, 1.0 sack, and 16 passes defended.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Mac Jones averaged 223.6 passing yards per game and completed 22 touchdowns last season.
  • Damien Harris averaged 61.9 rushing yards and scored 15 rushing touchdowns.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson ran for five touchdowns on 606 yards a year ago.
  • Jakobi Meyers averaged 50.9 receiving yards and collected two receiving touchdowns over the course of the 2021 season.
  • Kendrick Bourne grabbed five touchdowns and had 800 receiving yards (47.1 ypg) in 2021.
  • Hunter Henry averaged 35.5 receiving yards per game on 4.4 targets per game a season ago.
  • Last year Matthew Judon collected 12.5 sacks, 14.0 TFL and 60 tackles.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley was a force on the field last season with 109 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack.
  • A year ago Kyle Dugger tallied 92 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and five passes defended as well as four interceptions.

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