Like my hopes, dreams, and present admiration for the game of golf, the TOUR has taken a dive south after the PGA Championship and is headed from Tulsa to Fort Worth for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge.
This will mark the fifth and final stop of the year in this Oklahoma-Texas region of the country, with one last foray into hot, windy conditions. At Colonial CC, we will see a continuation of Perry Maxwell’s work for a second week in a row on a course that has annually posed a challenge to the field, typically keeping the winning score no further beyond 15-under par.
Looking at the board this week, it will be hard to avoid Jordan Spieth from a DFS perspective, as he carries a near-perfect record at the Charles Schwab Challenge with a home crowd on his side, and continues to remain in good form with a win and T2 in two of his last three starts.
With that said, the mid-range of 35 to 65-1 odds has been the sweet spot for winners over the years, with above-TOUR-average players like Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, and Chris Kirk winning here since 2015.
2022 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR COLONIAL CC
This week is all about control of the ball both off the tee and on approach, as Colonial CC has always done an excellent job of mitigating distance advantage from bombers.
The roadmap for success is a high clip of fairways and greens in regulation, and on these relatively small greens, the tournament has typically been decided by players who can string along the most 15 to 20-foot birdie opportunities.
From a golf betting perspective, there are some palatable options beyond the 100-1 odds range this week, as we’ve grown used to seeing when big names like Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa soak up the win equity at the top of the board.
Whenever we head to these positional courses, it makes me feel just a tad more optimistic that the cheaper fairway finders can see a path to victory.
In terms of DFS, it looks to be a fairly soft pricing week, with Jordan Spieth priced far too cheap at $10,400 and a long list of viable plays sub-$7,000.
I’m looking to hone in a player pool that thrives in shorter Par-4 scoring ranges of 350-450 yards, and who excel from proximity under 200 yards, as there is some value to be had in players who may typically lose strokes on their long-iron approaches at longer golf courses.
As much as I’d love to forget the 2022 PGA Championship ever happened, the process has been sound with all five players from last week’s article making it through the cut, and two of them contending throughout the tournament. Here’s to building on that momentum with hopefully less heartbreak in Texas.
Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge!
*Betting odds & DFS pricing from DraftKings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Stewart Cink (, $7,100)
Stewart Cink inadvertently got plenty of air time last week, sharing a Sunday pairing with eventual PGA Champion, Justin Thomas. While Cink was never in contention, he still looked sharp with a T23 finish where he ranked 6th in the field in terms of SG: OTT.
With Stewart Cink, we at least know there’s no Major hangover to have to worry about. Five of his eight career PGA TOUR victories have come in the week immediately following a Major, as he showed us most recently in his latest victory at the 2021 RBC Heritage.
Colonial CC asks for a similar profile as Harbour Town, rewarding accuracy off the tee and strong iron play. Now entering this week with two T10 finishes over his last five starts, Cink may be poised to contend again. He has a T10 to his name at the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2017, which fits the trend that six of the last seven winners of this event have posted a T10 prior to their victory.
Cink ranks no. 12 in SG: APP over the last 12 rounds, with spike rounds of over 5 strokes gained at both the Wells Fargo Championship and Valspar Championship. The trends all seem to favor Cink at a low price and long odds this week.
Nate Lashley (, $7,100)
Nate Lashley continues to play well, yet in spite of that, DraftKings has displayed no intention of promoting him out of his usual spot in the low-$7K range.
Over his last seven starts, Lashley has finished inside the top-30 all but once, including four top-20s in his last five starts. I would prefer to play Lashley on longer, more open courses with forgiving fairways, but a shorter course with nine holes concentrated in the P4: 350-450 range should actually suit him perfectly, as he ranks top-10 in scoring from within this range.
Lashley’s hot recent form has also helped him climb to top-20 in this strong field in terms of SG: APP, GIRs Gained, and Good Drives Gained, all good signals to generate consistent scoring opportunities at Colonial.
If his game continues the way it’s been trending since March, he’s poised to improve on the T32 finish he posted at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
Brendon Todd (, $7,000)
I’m back in on Webb Simpson’s prospects this week, and usually whenever that’s the case, I’m also going to like discounted Webb: Brendon Todd.
Todd is known as one of the shortest hitters on TOUR, but has been able to thrive on shorter courses that mitigate that distance disadvantage. The three-time winner has picked up each of his victories on courses under 7,200 yards, instead relying on his elite strengths of Driving Accuracy and Putting to gain in these fields.
Todd is no.1 in Fairways Gained, no. 2 SG: P on Bentgrass, and no. 3 in Double Bogeys Avoided, all key predictive factors in a tournament that has seen players like Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner successfully rely on a similar formula to find success.
Todd also ranks no. 14 in Comp Course History, with T16-or-better finishes at the Valero Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Wyndham Championship, Mayakoba Classic, and 2021 Charles Schwab within the past year. With multiple career T10 finishes at Colonial CC over the last six years, Todd is just a hot putter away from contending on any sub-7,200-yard course and presents great value at this price.
Rory Sabbatini (, $6,700)
I am usually looking for something safe with a high floor when we venture below $7,000 on DraftKings and there are few things safer to bet on in golf than Rory Sabbatini in the state of Texas.
The Olympic Silver medalist, 2007 champion at Colonial, and current Fort Worth resident gets another opportunity to leverage the old reliable home bed narrative as he returns to play in his backyard this week. He currently carries a streak of 11 consecutive cuts made in Texas events dating back to the 2018 Houston Open. Across those Texas events, Sabbatini has been best at the Charles Schwab Challenge with four T20 finishes over his last six appearances.
The form entering this week continues to look sharp as he’s also made it through the cut in each of his last five events, highlighted by a T25 up the road at the AT&T Byron Nelson where he gained 7.5 strokes T2G.
Looking ahead to this week, Sabbatini ranks top-50 across the key stats of Comp Course History, SG: T2G, SG: P (TOT + Bent), Fairways Gained, and P4: 350-450, suggesting good signs he can make it a dozen straight made cuts in Texas this week.
Lucas Glover (, $6,700)
It’s still a bit too early in the week to get a good grasp on ownership projections, but I have to imagine Lucas Glover will find himself in most people’s $6K player pools this week.
Glover has remained on-brand in 2022 as a steady ball striker with a cold putter, but if we’re looking for signs of encouragement with the flat stick, Bentgrass is where he’s been the least terrible over the course of his career, and is the same grass type he picked up his last win upon at the 2021 John Deere Classic.
As further encouragement, the last time Glover was at Colonial CC, he gained over 4 strokes putting, so we know a ceiling does exist for him at this course when it comes to putting.
In Glover’s last two visits to Colonial CC, he’s started to trend in the right direction with finishes of T23 and T8. He’s also finished T30 in each of the first two Majors of the season, and finished T18 in his last start in the Lone Star State at the Valero Open.
Combine the more difficult conditions with familiar Texas scenery, and Colonial CC sets up to be a perfect venue to keep the form rolling for Glover.