The second major of the season is upon us this week as the TOUR heads to Tulsa, Oklahoma for the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills.
It’s been 15 years since we last saw Tiger Woods lift the Wannamaker Trophy at this venue and since then, the course has incurred an expansive restoration from Gil Hanse.
The restoration calls for a return to strategic thinking from tee to green, as the near 400 yards in added length since the 2007 PGA Championship will likely force more drivers off the tee. It also created a new emphasis on approach and around the green play, as tight runoffs and false fronts will drive near misses off the greens.
Since it’s a major Championship, the win equity remains at the top of the board, with many of the game’s best trending well. With that said, a concentration of win equity amongst a wider group of elite players means there are ample talented players in this field who are capable of winning in difficult major conditions, but have slipped beyond 100-1 odds, or to the low $7Ks in DraftKings anyway.
Ample opportunity still to exploit some value so without any further delay, let’s get to our 2022 PGA Championship longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards using odds from DraftKings among other online sportsbooks.
2022 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR SOUTHERN HILLS
Longshots have fared well at the PGA Championship historically. Look no further than Phil Mickelson, who emerged out of nowhere to win at Kiawah Island last year. Jimmy Walker, Jason Dufner, and Keegan Bradley have also surprised as winners of this event over the last decade, so there is opportunity to reach further down the odds board for longshot outright considerations.
I have a hard time building out lineups without Scottie Scheffler in them this week, as the world No. 1 hails from the surrounding Texas area and is quoted as saying Southern Hills is his favorite course to play in the world. It’s also rumored that he shot -6 in a practice round last week, so it’s hard to see him not contending at this course. With that in mind, I’ll be leaning on the low $7K and $6K pricing range on DraftKings to balance out my lineups.
From an outright perspective, we should expect some odds drift from good players back into the 100-1+ range, so I have no problem spreading out a longer card that includes a handful of outright bombs with proven win equity in difficult conditions.
Overall, when looking for value this week, I’ve zeroed in on players who are strong around the greens and who have had steady results on comp courses, even if not in the best immediate form. Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 PGA Championship.
*Betting odds & DFS pricing from DraftKings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Cameron Young (, $7,600)
If you’ve watched any golf over the last couple months, you’d agree there is no reason for Cameron Young to be this cheap on either DraftKings or the betting board. Sportsbooks have at least begun to adjust down on Young’s number, but I expect if you search hard enough, you’ll still be able to find some 100-1 or better odds on the no. 1 T2G player over the last 8 rounds, and the no. 1 ARG player over the last 12 rounds.
Young enters Southern Hills in unprecedented form for a PGA TOUR rookie, already amassing four top-3 finishes in his first full season. That includes back-to-back top-three finishes in his previous two starts at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship. In each event, Young gained over 10 strokes tee-to-green, and was just an average putting week away from winning in successive weeks.
The case against Cameron Young is that in his first three Major appearances, he’s never made the cut, and he’s never come particularly close. With that said, his excellence at the Wells Fargo Championship, which was for all intents and purposes contested in Major-like conditions, without the stakes or gravity of a Major, was an encouraging sign of things to come for this week.
Young has already established himself as an elite driver on TOUR, ranking no. 3 in SG: OTT over the last 36 rounds. His Driving Distance (no. 9) should give him a leg up on this field, but his under-rated skills around the green (no. 3 in Scrambling), present intriguing upside as a longshot outright consideration at Southern Hills.
Jason Kokrak (, $7,300)
It’s no secret that Jason Kokrak feels comfortable and confident in this region of the country, picking up two wins over the past year at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Houston Open in similar gusty, parkland conditions.
As far as non-major comp courses go, Colonial CC and Memorial Park happen to be two of the best for Southern Hills. Colonial for its Perry Maxwell design connections and Memorial Park for its difficult conditions and elevated greens with tight runoffs.
Kokrak’s history at Majors won’t jump out at you, but he’s riding momentum coming off of his best career Major finish, a T14 at The Masters last month. That’s notable considering the connections being drawn between Southern Hills and Augusta National’s layouts. Combining performance across each of the comp courses I looked at this week, Kokrak rated out 8th overall, an encouraging sign at this price.
Jason Kokrak is not known for his touch around the green, which may give some people pause to play him, but he’s managed to quietly gain around the greens in five of his last six events. When you’re the no. 1 Bentgrass putter in the field like Kokrak is, the rest of your short game doesn’t have to be perfect. I love the combination of win equity and course fit at this price for Jason Kokrak.
Patrick Reed (, $7,200)
If the winds go on to blow as hard as expected, and this becomes a scrambling contest like we saw most recently at the tail end of this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, then I want exposure to Patrick Reed, who in true Patrick Reed fashion, is being completely overlooked from an ownership standpoint.
Reed has picked up victories across his career at long, demanding golf courses like Torrey Pines, Bethpage Black, and Augusta National, so there’s no question he has the pedigree to handle Southern Hills. The recent form is not fantastic, but this is a long-term play on a discounted Reed, knowing his short game is second to none on TOUR when it’s on, and that difficult conditions such as these can really mitigate a ball striking advantage from the rest of the field.
Reed is also a Texas resident, so he’s no stranger to these hot, windy conditions. He ranks top-30 in terms of Recent Major History, Comp Course History, and Scoring in Difficult Conditions, so we know we can expect Patrick Reed to hang around when scoring is at a premium.
A win would surprise me, but I think Reed is in a great position to cash a top-20 placement bet, or at least make it through the cut at a discounted DFS price and ownership.
Robert MacIntyre (, $6,900)
It is always a good idea to play Robert MacIntyre in Majors. The 25-year-old Scot is a perfect 8/8 in cuts made at Majors to begin his career. He’s finished T25 in half of those appearances, including each of his first two trips to Augusta National, which has become the consensus top comp course for Southern Hills.
MacIntyre is above-average in all facets of his game, but specializes in his touch around the greens first and foremost, which helps explain the early success at The Masters. He ranks top-25 in SG: ARG and top-10 in Scrambling amongst the field this week, which should give him a sizeable leg up at Southern Hills.
It’s also worth noting that the angles of this golf course will be favorable to a right-to-left ball flight, a quality that tends to suit most left-handed players, presumably explaining his early success at Augusta as well.
The all-around game seems to be trending well for MacIntyre with seven consecutive T35 finishes between the PGA and DP World Tours. He makes for a high-floor DFS play and intriguing placement bet given the recent form and short game specialties.
Mito Pereira (, $6,700)
Bias aside, the numbers will continue to point you towards playing Mito in the $6K range, especially without many other viable options priced around him.
Between his college days at Texas Tech and upbringing in Chile, Mito should be no stranger to hot and windy conditions, and with top-20 finishes in each of his last two Texas starts on the PGA TOUR, it’s clear he’s comfortable playing this style of golf.
Mito has been elite over the last 36 rounds in the key areas of Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling, ranking top-5 in each category. That’s relegated him to a T20 ceiling in most weeks on the PGA TOUR, but suggests that difficult Major conditions should suit his game best. Beyond the specialty stats, it’s also encouraging to see Mito rank inside the top-10 in terms of SG: APP and SG: Ball Striking over the last 50 rounds.
Mito has gained at least 3 strokes T2G in six of his last seven starts. It’s anyone’s guess how the putter is going to perform week to week, but although erratic, he’s shown signs of promise that he can pair a positive tee to green week with a solid putting performance. At this price, you’re not asking for much more than a T30 finish to pay off his value, and Mito’s been able to achieve that in six of his last seven starts.