The research process for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship looks much different from the previous year’s, as we take a one-year break from Quail Hollow and instead set up shop at TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm.
Unlike Quail Hollow, a perennial top-five course in terms of total yardage on the scorecard, TPC Potomac slots in at a shorter but mighty 7,160 yards. This will take the advantage away from pure bombers and instead reward the players who can consistently find the fairways while remaining proficient with their long irons.
Similar to last week’s Mexico Open, there is a clear-cut favorite at the Wells Fargo Championship, as Rory McIlroy looks to defend his 2021 victory in his TPC Potomac debut.
The DraftKings odds and pricing reflect Rory as the prohibitive favorite, however, with a longer list of in-form mid-tier players at this event compared to at Vidanta Vallarta. Comparatively, it won’t be as easy to set and forget the favorite in your lineups.
2022 WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR TPC POTOMAC
DraftKings has made the decision of whether to start your lineups with the top-priced player much more difficult this week. Despite the stronger field and less obvious course fit for betting favorite Rory McIlroy, he’s still priced $400 higher than Jon Rahm was last week.
That means the conventional lineup construction this week will more likely begin in the $10K or $9K range and lead to a more balanced build of lineups. I find myself following that consensus formula, fading Rory at the top, and instead concentrating on a pool of salary savers in the mid and low $7K range for DFS purposes.
From a betting perspective, with ownership aside, there is a clear path to identifying value amongst players who are consistently steady off the tee, are able to put together a patient, conservative game plan, and avoid making too many bogeys with a solid tee to green game. So if I’m going to hit an outright this week, there’s a good chance we’ll see a community win on one of the players noted below in the longshot range of the board.
Here’s a look at my favorite value leverage plays for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
*Betting odds & DFS pricing from DraftKings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Kevin Streelman (, $7,700)
Kevin Streelman owns a share of the TPC Potomac course record, thanks to a Friday 8-under 62 at the 2018 Quicken Loans National. He is one of only eleven players in the field this week who made it through the cut in each of the first two PGA TOUR events hosted at TPC Potomac with finishes of T32 and T17 at the 2017 & 2018 Quicken Loans National.
Beyond the solid course history, the course where Streelman has found the most success throughout his career would have to be TPC River Highlands, the consensus no. 1 comp course to TPC Potomac. He picked up one of his two career PGA TOUR victories at The Travelers in 2014, finished runner up to Dustin Johnson in 2020, and has two additional top-15 finishes over the last five years.
It should not come as much of a surprise that Streelman has found repeated success on this profile of tight, angular, tree-lined courses which discount distance advantage in favor of precision off the tee and on approach.
More recently, Streelman enters with an impressive streak of 12 consecutive events in which he’s gained strokes off the tee, which should set him up well on a course with so many demanding tee shots. He also ranks 6th in weighted Bogey Avoidance & SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions), which should play to his benefit if mid-teens under par is the watermark for a winning score this week.
Cam Davis (, $7,200)
Cam Davis is my favorite play on the board this week and was the first bet I placed on Monday when his odds opened at 100-1.
Davis has a reputation as a free-swinging bomber given his driving distance stats and ability to take advantage of Par-5 scoring. However, the stats actually suggest that the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic champion’s game is best suited for tighter courses that discourage bombing the ball off the tee.
Despite his distance, Davis ranks outside the top-100 amongst active PGA TOUR players in SG: OTT. That said, he ranks inside the top-10 on the PGA TOUR in SG: OTT on courses under 7,200 yards.
That would suggest that Davis is at his best when he is playing more conservatively with less-than-driver to set up his approach shots for scoring opportunities, so his T3 finish in his latest start at the RBC Heritage should not come as much of a surprise.
In addition to his strengths off the tee on short courses, it’s a similar trend of severe splits with Davis’ putting numbers. He is once again outside the top-100 amongst active PGA TOUR players in terms of SG: Putting, but climbs inside the top-10 on the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens.
Over the last two years, Davis has lost strokes putting on Bentgrass on only one occasion, so we should expect a higher floor this week if his irons and wedges also remain in form.
Martin Laird (, $7,100)
TPC Potomac is a ball-strikers course with small, firm, and fast greens that have, at least in a small two-year sample size, opened the playing field for lesser putters to still contend.
In the inaugural Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac in 2017, Laird managed to overcome some shoddy pre-tournament putting form and gained 3.8 strokes putting, en route to a T3 finish. More recently, Laird has displayed a polished all-around game on a streak of 12 consecutive events in which he’s gained strokes tee to green.
Unfortunately, the putter has been miserable, gaining in just three of those twelve events, so the results have been modest, keeping him in this lower pricing range. But if Kyle Stanley can win this event while losing strokes to the field on the greens, then we can take encouragement from the 0.2 strokes Laird gained putting in his last appearance at the Valero Texas Open. Right?
Looking at the key stats this week, Laird rates out no. 8 in my model, ranking inside the top-10 in terms of SG: APP, Fairways Gained, SG: T2G, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 175-200, and Course History. Cameron Champ showed us last week that even the worst of putters are capable of spiking any given week, so I love Laird’s upside if a modest neutral week on the greens is all that is asked of him.
Ryan Armour (, $6,800)
Ryan Armour is by no means a sleeper this week looking at projected ownership on DraftKings, but he’s still a long shot as far as the odds board is concerned, and has an easy case to be rostered in DFS cash games.
Armour was runner up to a super-human Francesco Molinari at the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac, where he was the only other player in the field to shoot four rounds in the 60s. His game profiles perfectly for this course, excelling with his accuracy off the tee (no. 3 Fairways Gained) and with his long irons (no. 1 Prox 200+).
Armour is also top-20 in the key stats of P4: 450+, Good Drives Gained, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: OTT, rising all the way to third overall in my model, behind only Corey Conners and Rory McIlroy. I will often re-run a model and adjust the weights if a $6K player is popping this high, but the 2nd place finish here in 2018 would seem to justify that this course really is tailored to the strengths in Armour’s game.
With three top-30s in his last six starts, Armour is worthy of a play in DFS despite the high projected ownership, and has great upside for a T20 or T30 finishing position.
Cameron Percy (, $6,300)
Cameron Percy is not my friend when it comes to stat modeling on a week-to-week basis. He seems to pop up as a regular top-five player in terms of SG: APP in these weaker field events but continues to be fixated in the low $6K range anyway, without many notable results to back up his elite approach stats.
But at $6,300, the price is low enough to consider, especially for lineups that need the salary relief to afford $11,500 Rory McIlroy.
In addition to the elite approach metrics, Percy is also a respectable 18th in SG: T2G and 28th in SG: TOT, which is a bargain to find this cheap down the board. He also joins Kevin Streelman in that same group of eleven players who have played TPC Potomac twice and made it through the cut each time, with finishes of T32 and T46.
Last but not least, Percy enters this tournament with two T10 finishes in his last three PGA TOUR starts. Granted, they each came in opposite-field events on wide-open resort courses between the Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana Championship, but that’s got to be worth something! At least at DraftKings, I will leave no Aussie Cam unturned this week.