The Masters is now behind us, but with Scottie Scheffler absent from this field, there is newfound win equity for longshot prospects at the 2022 RBC Heritage.
I’m always looking for a reason to bet some longshots, and this week we have the perfect recipe with a top-heavy field of five OWGR top-10 players on a course that should level the playing field and mitigate any distinct advantage from bombers and elite ball strikers.
The tight angles and constantly threatening tree lines should force the driver to stay in the bag for a majority of tee shots, and with Harbour Town featuring the second smallest greens on TOUR behind Pebble Beach, it’s a week that should come down to Approach and Scrambling.
We’ve had a long list of surprise longshot winners here over recent years, including Stewart Cink, Satoshi Kodaira, CT Pan, and Wesley Bryan, so it’s a great time to size up the bottom of the board in both outright bets and DFS lineup construction.
2022 RBC HERITAGE PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR HARBOUR TOWN GOLF LINKS
Stewart Cink pounded these greens into submission in last year’s victory, seemingly hitting every green in regulation and two-putting for par throughout the weekend after a blazing 63-63 start. He took a non-traditional route, missing a high percentage of fairways and relying on some creative approaches from the light rough and treelined pine straw, but the steady iron play was enough to cruise to victory at 150-1 odds.
From a value perspective, there is no shortage of “Stewart Cinks” in this 2022 field, who have proven results both at this course and at recent comp positional courses, while still hanging gaudy 100-1 odds or longer.
It’s a great week to buy low on players who may have struggled on recent bomber courses, but have the positional game to thrive in target golf conditions. SG: APP, SG: ARG, Course & Comp Course History, and Par 4: 400-450 are the main stat categories I looked to this week to exploit value from DFS pricing and betting odds.
With the way pricing’s shaken out on Draft Kings, I see myself concentrating exposure in the $10K and $7K ranges, avoiding the mid-tier with so many viable options with proven history at price discounts this week. Here’s a look at my favorite value leverage plays for the 2022 RBC Heritage.
*Betting odds & DFS pricing from Draft Kings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Kevin Streelman (, $7,500)
It’s never very exciting to bet or roster Kevin Streelman, but this is an event where unexciting players tend to flourish. Streelman is the type of player with sticky course history at certain tracks who tends to ride out streaky form, which makes this a perfect time to jump onboard, at a very reasonable price in both DFS and the odds board.
Streelman is a bona fide Pete Dye specialist, with ten career T10 finishes on Pete Dye Courses between The Travelers, THE PLAYERS, The AmEx, the RBC Heritage, and last year’s PGA Championship. He’s picked up three of those T10s at the RBC Heritage specifically, and has just one missed cut over his last eight appearances here, which came in the negligible post-COVID conditions in 2020.
In terms of recent form, Streelman’s gotten himself into a groove with top-25 finishes in four of his last five starts, highlighted by a T7 at The Valspar, another tree-lined positional comp course to Harbour Town. He’s the no. 1 player in this field in Scrambling Gained over the last 36 rounds, a crucial stat at a course in Harbour Town that features the second smallest greens on TOUR.
He’s also 5th in Fairways Gained and top-25 in SG: T2G, P4: 400-450, and Short Course History, all great indicators for what’s in store at the RBC Heritage.
Russell Knox (, $7,300)
Knox continues to string together encouraging, yet incomplete rounds of golf that look great in a model but haven’t manifested in the most quality results on the leaderboard. That’s great from a DFS and betting standpoint, as we know the potential is there and don’t have to pay a premium on the price just yet.
He enters the RBC Heritage on a streak of seven consecutive made cuts, highlighted by top-10 finishes at the Sony Open and THE PLAYERS, two of the best comp courses we’ve seen to Harbour Town in the 2022 season. Over the last eight months, he’s lost strokes T2G only once.
Although Knox’s event history has stalled with three consecutive MC’s, it’s still encouraging to see he’d began his career with T20s in his first four appearances, highlighted by a T2 in 2016. He now rides into Hilton Head in great form, ranking no. 1 in GIRs Gained and top-10 in the key stats of SG: T2G, SG: APP, P4: 400-450, and Fairways Gained, so if the putter can cooperate, he has the potential to channel another T20 bid at this price discount.
Charles Howell III (, $7,100)
I’ve never felt compelled to play Charles Howell III before, not even at the Sony Open where he’s still managed to have somehow never missed a cut. But this week, there are enough signs between Course History, Recent Form, and the previously mentioned SG: Unexciting model that Kevin Streelman popped in, that I think I’m finally on board.
Last we saw him, Howell fired a T4 finish at the Valero Texas Open where he gained over 10 strokes T2G, his best result since the 2020 3M Open. That result was far from a fluke, however, as he’s now gained over four strokes T2G in five of his last seven starts, producing six top-40 finishes since the start of the 2022 season.
It’s encouraging to see that he’s been finding success T2G (no. 19 in this field) despite a cold putter, as he’s historically been reliable on the greens, especially on Bermuda. In his last RBC Heritage appearance, Howell gained over five strokes putting, so we know the potential is there to pair up this current T2G hot streak with a spike putting performance at Harbour Town.
Joel Dahmen (, $6,800)
I will always look to play Dahmen on short, coastal courses that reward accuracy over distance off the tee and strong approach play. That was the formula required at Pebble Beach where he fired a T6, his best result of 2022, and he should be able to continue to repeat that formula once again at Harbour Town. This will be his third career appearance, with a T48 and T16 in his first two trips.
Dahmen is 23rd overall in my model this week thanks to top-30 ranks in Comp Course History, SG: T2G, SG: APP, P4: 400-450, and GIRs Gained. These shorter Pete Dye courses tend to breed repeatable results from accurate players who can rinse and repeat fairways and greens in regulation, and that’s exactly what Joel Dahmen does best.
Luke Donald (, $6,300)
It’s been more tempting than it should be to play Luke Donald recently, floating around as a top-5 iron player despite near-minimum pricing in DFS. With that said, the thought of rostering Donald this week is getting progressively less gross.
In terms of total course history, Donald rates out no. 3 behind Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson. He’s never won here, but he’s circled the drain plenty of times with seven finishes of T2 or T3. He most recently finished runner-up to Wesley Bryan here in 2017 by one stroke, so he’s proven over time that he is comfortable competing on this course.
It’s a legitimate concern that he’s gained strokes OTT on just two occasions since 2018 (!), but if there’s one course that mitigates a player’s disadvantage OTT most, it’s Harbour Town, where he’s managed to post three T3 finishes without gaining OTT.
If we look more granularly, Donald has actually gained strokes OTT in four of his last six rounds. He hasn’t put a stretch like that together since 2019, so it’s possible he may have found something after his T16 at the Valspar. At this near-minimum price, this seems like a good time to hop on board while the iron play and course history both rank top-5 in the field.