2022 Valero Texas Open Sleeper Picks | The 4 Best Value Plays For DFS Lineups & Betting Cards

Written By John Haslbauer on March 29, 2022 - Last Updated on March 31, 2022

Masters week is almost upon us, as we are separated from seeing Augusta National again by just one event: the 2022 Valero Texas Open.

Sandwiched between the WGC Dell Match Play and The Masters, the strength and depth of this field is down pretty significantly from what we’ve seen in recent weeks. Even still, we’ll get to see the fire power of Rory McIlroy and defending champion Jordan Spieth to keep things interesting at TPC San Antonio.

It’s a tricky tournament to predict, as every winner of the Valero Texas Open over the past decade has either opened at shorter than 25-1 odds or longer than 80-1 odds. Jordan Spieth won as the odds on favorite last year, and Corey Conners won as a Monday Qualifier at 200-1 odds the year before.

With that said, it’s a crucial week to identify high-upside longshots, as they’ve proven to have win equity in these beatable Valero Texas Open fields, but can also free up salary relief if looking to roster some of the top names this week.

So with some help from DraftKings among other online sportsbooks, let’s get to our 2022 Valero Texas Open longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards.

2022 VALERO TEXAS OPEN PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR TPC SAN ANTONIO

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio puts a premium on Approach play, as well as a strong emphasis on SG: ARG, given fairways and greens are both missed at a higher rate than TOUR average here. Beyond that, the San Antonio area has seen a long stretch of dry weather leading into this event, which should lead to a much firmer and more difficult scoring week than we’ve seen in recent years.

From a DFS lineup construction standpoint, we are set up naturally to favor some stars & scrubs builds, considering there is not a ton of depth in the mid-range of this field. I see myself building around Rory McIlroy in Draft Kings and identifying a few $6K values with high upside as a result.

Similarly from a betting perspective, we can take some free swings at the bottom of the board, as two of the last three Valero Texas Open winners have opened at longer than 150-1 odds.

Here’s a look at my favorite value plays for the 2022 Valero Texas Open.

*Betting odds & DFS pricing from Draft Kings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Matthew NeSmith (, $7,100)

I may be falling victim to buying high on NeSmith, a former member of my betting black list who impressed for four days last we saw him at the Valspar Championship (T3 finish). But at the same time, $7,100 doesn’t exactly feel like much of a premium for a player who ranks top-10 in SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, GIRs Gained, and Bogey Avoidance.

He also had a solid T34 in his Valero Texas Open debut last year.

With NeSmith, we know by now that he is going to pop in models with his ball-striking but come back to bite you with his putter. In this case, however, I’m encouraged by his comments at the Valspar on shifting his mentality and adjusting his putting grip; both of these new changes manifested in the best finish of his career and the fourth best-putting outing of his career.

If we believe he’s found something with these adjustments, then it’s a bargain price against a relatively weak field.

David Lipsky (, $6,900)

Lipsky is a rookie who seems to just be starting to turn the corner after a few months of reps on the PGA TOUR. Over his last eight starts, he’s made it through the cut seven times.

He finished T14 at The AmEx, which was played on a similar turf layout of Bermuda and overseeded Poa, top-25 at both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Arnold Palmer Invitational which each factored in significant winds like we’ve seen at TPC San Antonio, and he’s now coming off a T7 finish at the Corales Championship which is one of my favorite comp courses for this event.

While Lipsky is making his Valero Texas Open this week, he’ll be walking these grounds with some confidence, as he won the 2020 KFT San Antonio Challenge at the Pete Dye course on the property at TPC San Antonio. I like the momentum and vibes Lipski’s built up for himself entering the 2022 Valero Texas Open.

J.J. Spaun (, $6,700)

Spaun is in better form than the $6,700 price tag would suggest, having made it through the cut in 12 of his last 15 starts, including seven top-30 finishes over that stretch. The stats don’t exactly jump off the page for Spaun, but it’s always encouraging to see when a $6K player rates out top-25 across key stat categories like SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, GIRs Gained, and Par 5 Scoring.

He has a mixed bag of history at this event with two made cuts in four appearances, but there’s no doubt his game is trending in the right direction heading to San Antonio this year. He hasn’t been in the mix as often as you would like for an outright flyer, but Spaun shapes up to be a very solid DFS play and top-30 placement bet this week.

Kevin Chappell (, $6,700)

Kevin Chappell is my favorite First Round Leader bet this week. He has proven results at TPC San Antonio regardless of his form entering tournament week, but is a very streaky and volatile player, just as liable to post a round in the mid-60s as he is to land in the mid-70s.

Case in point, at last week’s Corales Championship (another long, windy course that rewards hitting fairways), Chappell finished T15 with two rounds of 67 and 66.

Chappell is an under-the-radar course horse at the Valero Texas Open with a win in 2017 to go along with two other top-5s and a T15 in eight career appearances. The recent form has been up and down, but the combination of course history and a T15 in his last start are enough reason to consider getting on board at this price.

2022 Valero Texas Open Betting Odds

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

View all posts by John Haslbauer
Privacy Policy