2022 WGC Dell Match Play Sleeper Picks | The 3 Best Value Plays For DFS Lineups & Betting Cards

Written By John Haslbauer on March 22, 2022

March Madness is in full swing and makes its way to the PGA TOUR for the 2022 WGC Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club.

Some people don’t like the change of pace with this week’s departure from traditional stroke play and may choose to skip watching or betting this tournament. I can understand that with plenty of college basketball to sink into this week instead. But if the community at large is leaning out, that’s the best time to gain an edge by leaning in.

The Match Play format inherently breeds randomness. At the 2021 WGC Dell Match Play, 50% of groups saw the lowest OWGR-rated player advance, and just one top-seed (Jon Rahm) was able to advance into the round of 16. Simply put, no player is safe to pay up for in this format, so it’s a great time to put game theory to the test, get creative with lineup builds, and take a stance on some long shots.

So with some help from DraftKings among other online sportsbooks, let’s get to our 2022 WGC Match Play longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards.

2022 WGC DELL MATCH PLAY PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS FOR AUSTIN COUNTRY CLUB

Billy Horschel was your winner over Scottie Scheffler at 80-1 odds in this event last year. Strokes gained aside, you want to take shots on these gritty grinders who know how to close out a win, hit pressure putts, and thrive under pressure with previous Match Play experience.

If there was ever a week to put a premium on putting, this would be the one. You can’t win Match Play with ball-striking alone, so the last man standing after five days of head-to-head competition is going to have to be a confident and comfortable putter.

I’m not looking too closely at key stats this week, but Recent Form, Pete Dye History, Short Course History, and SG: P (Bermuda) are on a shortlist of stats I’m referencing to guide my player pool in the right direction.

From a DFS lineup construction standpoint, I’m going to attempt some stars & scrubs builds as best as I can. I find myself either gravitating towards the top-seeded player in the weakest overall opening groups, or the lowest-seeded players in the least top-heavy of groups.

Similarly from a betting perspective, I’m not jumping to pay premium odds on the best players this week given the volatility of the format. There are plenty of viable options in the 70-1 or longer range to pivot to instead.

Here’s a look at my favorite value leverage plays for the 2022 WGC Dell Match Play.

*Betting odds & DFS pricing from Draft Kings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Justin Rose (, $6,900)

Match Play week is a “feel” week, and Justin Rose south of $7,000 and north of 100-1 odds just doesn’t feel right to me in a field of 64. And I’m not here to spoil the Texas homecoming narrative for Jordan Spieth, but it’s not very difficult for me to picture a scenario where Rose takes care of business against him, Adam Scott, and Keegan Bradley.

Rose has had an up and down start to the 2022 season, but the highs include a T6 at The Farmers and T12 at the RSM Classic within his last six starts. While the former world No. 1 has been inconsistent with his ball-striking, he’s had his best results lately on shorter, positional courses that do not require hitting driver as often. We know his putter can light up, and it’s possible he may have a little chip on his shoulder after being the odd man out for Team Europe’s 2021 Ryder Cup roster.

I don’t expect Rose to be a popular play this week coming out of Jordan Spieth’s group, but I see plenty of upside for the price and projected ownership.

Tom Hoge (, $6,800)

I thought after edging out Jordan Spieth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we would finally start to see the books put some respect on Tom Hoge’s name.

They have not.

Hoge is a popular bet this week with most sportsbooks posting him north of 100-1 odds. Coming in fresh off of a first-round-leading performance at THE PLAYERS in which he was in contention to win through Sunday morning, Hoge has left little doubt he can hold his own on a short, Pete Dye, Bermuda course.

The TCU alumni should have some familiarity with this course, and will be able to lean on his elite iron play to create plenty of scoring opportunities. Despite the price discount, he’s drawn one of the most favorable opening groups in the event, alongside Billy Horschel, Thomas Pieters, and Min Woo Lee. Sure, we have to give the defending WGC Dell Match Play champion Billy Horschel some respect in this group, but of all the top-seeded players in this field, he’s still the least imposing of all of them. Over the last 36 rounds, Hoge ranks 7th in this field SG: TOT, ten spots ahead of Horschel, so an argument could be made that it’s Hoge who should be the favorite to advance from this group.

Maverick McNealy (, $6,200)

As far as DFS is concerned, I’m essentially treating McNealy as a free square. As the #70 OWGR-ranked player in the field, McNealy was a late entry as the sixth alternate after Sam Burns withdrew following his victory at the Valspar Championship.

When we get late entries into the field, DraftKings tends to panic and not price them correctly. That’s exactly the case we have here with McNealy who is priced at $6,200 despite currently being available at as short as 66-1 odds in the betting market. For reference, that’s the same odds as Kevin Kisner, who’s priced at $7,600 on DraftKings.

It is incredibly difficult to build a DFS lineup with 6/6 through the opening Group Play, so even if McNealy fails to advance out of the first round, you’re still getting the salary relief to squeeze in more viable favorites.

Misprice aside, McNealy also benefits from getting one of the more favorable draws of the bracket, matching up with Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Na, and Russell Henley. Although Niemann looked impressive in his win at The Genesis, he’s been in questionable form since, so I don’t see McNealy as a significant underdog in any of these three matchups.

McNealy’s gotten off to a hot start to his 2022 season, making it through the cut in 11 of his first 12 events. He has three top-10s over that stretch and is gaining strokes across all four major stat categories on average over his last 10 events. For match play, I typically like to target players with a solid, well-rounded game and hot, streaky putter, and that’s exactly the profile Maverick McNealy enters this week with.

2022  WGC-Match Play Betting Odds

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