The 2019-20 NBA season is heading towards a climax, and we have a huge slate this Tuesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA March 10 Best Bets
Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) at San Antonio Spurs
This spread is in a very comfortable range considering how much better one of these Texas teams is playing right now. The Mavericks have dropped a couple close games in recent weeks, but most came with one of their stars in street clothes. If Luka Doncic (wrist) is unable to play tonight, it will be tough to back the Mavs, but he’s been playing through the issue with his usual efficiency and should be out there in a rivalry game tonight. Dallas is 21-11 on the road with the second-best net rating (6.2) and best offensive rating (116.8) in the league by far. The Mavs are 18-6-1 ATS after a loss, 9-3 ATS in division games, and 20-9-2 ATS on the road.
The Spurs are operating mostly on reputation this season, leading to the second-worst overall record (24-37-1) and home record (9-20) ATS this season. Now they should be close to packing it in for the offseason with their playoff chances slipping away. San Antonio is 3-5 with a -5.5 net rating since the ASB and has the seventh-worst defensive rating (125.9) in the final 5 minutes of games within 5 points or fewer. Doncic has been executing the Mavs offense flawlessly down the stretch and should have no problem leading his team past the Spurs late, just as he did in a 6-point win at San Antonio on February 26.
Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5) vs Orlando Magic
The Grizzlies have been fantastic since the all-star break and have been reliable at home for months now. They’ve been able to hold their position in the No. 8 spot in the WCF despite missing young bigs Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) for the last 8 games and Brandon Clarke (quad) for the last 7 games. Memphis struggled initially without those integral pieces, but is 4-1 with a league-best 16.4 net rating over their last 5 games. The Grizzlies are 11-2 over their last 13 home games and 19-13 ATS in Memphis this season.
Orlando has ramped things up offensively with wins over Minnesota and Houston, but the Magic defense remains quite vulnerable. Orlando ranks 28th in defensive rating (118.3) since the ASB and is giving up a league-high 2.37 AST/TO ratio during that span. Ja Morant is averaging 19.3 PPG and 7.6 APG with a 2.20 AST/TO ratio at home. The Grizzlies still have good size with Jonas Valanciunas and Gorgui Dieng, so they should be able to contain Orlando’s front line and earn another home win. It’s also worth noting that Memphis is 20-12 this year against teams with losing records.
Washington Wizards (-4.5) vs New York Knicks
The Knicks hit the road after a 5-game home stand and should experience some regression right away after covering in 4 of those home games. New York had dropped 4 straight road games and 6 straight overall prior to that home stand, including an 11-point loss at MSG to these Wizards. Bradley Beal dropped an easy 30 points despite shooting 2-for-7 from deep in that game, so he could see positive regression against a Knicks team that ranks 29th in 3-point defense (.381%) this season.
Washington has fixed a few things defensively and allows the ninth-fewest fastbreak PPG (12.6), something the Knicks depend upon to find their offense. Overall, New York ranks 29th in PPG (105.2) and is 9-22 with a -8.3 net rating on the road. The Wizards have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records and are allowing nearly 8 PPG fewer at home this season.
NBA March 10 Picks Against The Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.5) at Chicago Bulls
The Cavs have been playing inspired ball lately and the Bulls are in dire straights without star guard Zach LaVine (quad).
Los Angeles Clippers (-12.5) at Golden State Warriors
The Clippers are pounding bad teams and will be motivated to bounce back after losing to the Lakers Sunday. Draymond Green remains out and the Dubs are being very cautious with Steph Curry.
Phoenix Suns (+4) at Portland Blazers
Damian Lillard clearly isn’t healthy right now and the Blazers can’t be trusted against a Suns team that’s suddenly on fire offensively.
Houston Rockets (-12.5) vs Minnesota Wolves
The Rockets 4-game losing skid ends here, and should end emphatically. Their micro-ball offense can open huge leads in a hurry and Minnesota has the league’s worst defense since the ASB.
Indiana Pacers (+3) vs Boston Celtics
The Celtics are in a funk right now with a 4-5 record since the ASB and the Pacers are 5-0 with a league-best net rating (62.9) in clutch time during that span.
Brooklyn Nets (+10.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
There should be a bit of a letdown for the Lakers after big wins over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend.