2022 Valspar Championship Sleeper Picks | The 5 Best Value Plays For DFS Lineups & Betting Cards

Written By John Haslbauer on March 15, 2022 - Last Updated on March 17, 2022

As the fourth and final leg of the Florida swing, we close things out in Palm Harbor for the 2022 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course).

DFS pricing is a bit tighter this week than last with THE PLAYERS board being released a week early, which makes it that much more important to identify the best values to roster this week.

The layout of Innisbrook does suit the stronger players with the best all-around skillsets, and we’ve seen that manifest with wins from top-tier players like Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey, and Sam Burns over recent years.

But with that said, we’ve also seen surprise winners like Adam Hadwin, Kevin Streelman, and John Senden at this event, so it’s shaping up to be a stars and scrubs build for both my DFS lineup and betting card construction.

So with some help from DraftKings among other online sportsbooks, let’s get to our 2022 Valspar Championship longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards.


Sam Burns was a winner at 75-1 opening odds last year, and after an initial look through odds boards, that peripheral longshot range is where I see myself concentrating my betting exposure. Each of the last seven winners at the Valspar have opened at 100-1 or shorter odds.

With tight fairways and many contoured doglegs throughout this challenging course, players are often forced to keep driver in the bag and instead focus on finding fairways to set up their second shots. The key stats I’m looking to hone in on this week are Par 5 Scoring, SG: APP, and Scrambling with that in mind.

From a DFS lineup construction standpoint, I’ll be looking to fit multiple top-tier players into lineups, so I’m favoring more stars and scrubs constructions with help from the longer shots at the bottom of the board to find their way through the cut.

Similarly from a betting perspective, I’m looking to complement my exposure to the top of the board with a list of players in the 75-1 to 125-1 odds range for my outright bets.

We’ve seen this event reward the best iron players with the ability to scramble for pars and catch a hot putter in recent years, so there is still value to be had at the bottom of the board in players who may be deficient OTT or inconsistent putting. Here’s a look at my favorite value leverage plays for the 2022 Valspar Championship.

*Betting odds & DFS pricing from Draft Kings are subject to change after writing. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Martin Laird (, $7,200)

Martin Laird made a surprise appearance in the top-5 of my model, which made me do a double-take considering he’s missed the cut in four consecutive trips to the Valspar Championship. That recent course history is what’s driven him to this value range, but a T5 here back in 2011 is enough to keep me optimistic for a better result in 2022.

Laird enters with a streak of ten consecutive events in which he’s gained strokes tee-to-green. He has unfortunately been one of the worst putters on TOUR throughout that stretch.

From an outright and GPP perspective however, it’s still encouraging to see that he’s had two pop-putting weeks over that span. He’s gained over 3.5 strokes putting twice over his last ten starts, which resulted in top-15 finishes at The Shriners and the WM Phoenix Open.

Putting aside, Laird’s game is trending in all of the key stat categories entering this week, rating out top-10 in Par 5 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, and Fairways Gained.

Sahith Theegala (, $7,200)

I have a working theory that Sahith Theegala is a present-day poor man’s Jordan Spieth, and for the time being, I’m testing outplaying him at any course set-up that would theoretically favor Spieth.

Both were elite young talents rising up the amateur and high school golf ranks, have notoriously gotten themselves into trouble with driver in hand, but find ways to miraculously recover from trouble with a full bag of shots between their irons and wedges.

So if Spieth was a winner here in 2015, I’m predicting that Theegala will also profile well when he makes his debut this week.

The rookie is only three starts removed from his coming-out party at the WM Phoenix open where he finished T3. Heading into this week, he rates out top-20 in both Par 5 Scoring and Par 3 Scoring. He’s also one of only 14 players to rate out top-40 in both SG: APP and weighted Scrambling + SG: ARG going into this week.

Pat Perez (, $6,900)

I am a sucker for Par-5 Scoring at the Valspar Championship and will be building my card and lineups around the players who can be relied on best to capitalize on the few scoring opportunities that present themselves at Innisbrook.

Pat Perez ranks 9th in this field in Par 5 Scoring. On top of that, he ranks above-field average in every key stat category I fed into my model this week, which was good enough for a ranking of 15th overall this week in that model.

In practice, Perez has backed that up at this event with solid course history, including three consecutive made cuts, highlighted by a T29 at last year’s Valspar Championship. The recent form checks out as well, as Perez has five top-40 finishes in his last six starts. Over that stretch, he’s shined with top-10s at the Farmers and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Vaughn Taylor (, $6,700)

Vaughn Taylor is never a sexy DFS play or serious consideration in the outright market, but he’s remarkably consistent when it comes to making it through the cut at courses that reward driving accuracy and solid approach + short game skills.

Taylor enters this week in solid overall form, having made it through the cut in four consecutive starts, including a T7 in his last appearance at the Puerto Rico Open. When it comes to course history at the Valspar, he’s just as consistent with back to back top-20 finishes in his two latest appearances.

Taylor is the only player in the field this week to rate out top-25 in Fairways Gained, SG: APP, and SG: ARG. If he continues on with that simple formula, this track suits him well to continue the made cut streak.

Bill Haas (, $6,600)

The only thing less sexy than playing Vaughn Taylor might be playing Bill Haas. But as we dig this deep down the board, a player in Haas who has three top-15s and zero missed cuts over his last five appearances at the Valspar begins to feel like a pretty safe bet for the price. Haas’ best Valspar finish came in 2016 when he lost in a playoff to Charl Schwartzel.

The recent form is also probably better than you’d expect for Haas. He’s made four of his last five cuts, highlighted by a T25 at the Honda Classic.

I’m not expecting Haas to win this week, but I like the course history ceiling in this value range when I’m looking to cram in multiple top-priced plays in DFS.

2022 Valspar Championship Betting Odds

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