The 2019-20 NBA season is rolling and we have a huge slate this Monday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA February 10 Best Bets
Brooklyn Nets (+7) at Indiana Pacers
Somehow, the Pacers are now 1-5 since Victor Oladipo returned from his lengthy absence and their sole win came in OT against the Bulls after Dipo hit a fortuitous 3-pointer to force the extra period. While the Pacers struggle to re-integrate a star player, the Nets are thriving without their often absent star, Kyrie Irving (knee). Brooklyn is 4-2 with a league-best 18.3 net rating over its last 6 games, and boasts a ridiculous 122.4 offensive rating with a 20.3 net rating over 3 games since Irving went down with another injury.
The Nets latest achievement was a narrow loss at white-hot Toronto. They’re allowing the seventh-fewest PPG (44) in the paint over their last 3 outings and are second in offensive efficiency during that span. The Pacers have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 home games, with the exceptions coming by 0.5 points against the Bulls (in OT) and by 2.5 points against a 76ers team that is brutal on the road. The Nets haven’t been great away from home either, but have been a different team lately with Caris LeVert healthy and Spencer Dinwiddie leading inspired team-wide efforts.
Phoenix Suns (+12.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
This line opened around 11 points and is rising due to quick action on the Lakers. While the Purple and Gold dominated earlier this season and were even more reliable at home, things have changed since mid January. This is a particularly old NBA roster, so it’s fair to speculate that LeBron James and company are just trying to get by until the all-star break. The Lakers have a far more formidable challenge on Wednesday at Denver and could easily overlook this Suns team and thus fail to cover a lofty spread. Just as a reference, the Lakers hosted Phoenix on Jan. 1 and opened a ridiculous 33-point halftime lead, then let up and only won by 10 points.
The Suns could very well get bullied down low by Anthony Davis and company, but his dominance still hasn’t allowed the Lakers to pull away in recent weeks. Their blowout wins both came against teams on short rest (Kings and Spurs) and they’ve dropped home games to perimeter-heavy teams in the Blazers and Rockets. With Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre Jr. playing lights out, the Suns could somewhat negate the Lakers advantage down low by matching points on the other end.
Orlando Magic (-7) vs Atlanta Hawks
Despite their youth, the Hawks are one of the worst teams in the NBA on the second half of B2B sets. Atlanta already gives up a league-high 122 PPG on the road, and that number jumps to 124.8 PPG when playing on 0 days rest. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS and 1-8 SU in those B2B situations and just played an OT game in New York last night before traveling down to Orlando.
Orlando has looked feeble lately against good teams and even managed to lose at the Knicks last Sunday. But the Magic have the rest advantage and home court advantage here. They’re 4-3 ATS with a rest advantage and 6-5 ATS when facing opponents in the week Southeast Conference. When Orlando has faced bad teams within it’s division (Charlotte, Washington), they’ve gone 5-0 with a +19.4 PPG differential this season. The Hawks are 1-4 with a -12.5 and 120 defensive rating over their last five road games, so even Orlando’s struggling offense should take off in this matchup.
NBA February 10 Picks Against The Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+7.5) at Denver Nuggets
The Spurs continue to play close games when they’re on normal rest and the Nuggets are still shorthanded with Michael Porter Jr. (ankle) and Will Barton (knee) out, and Malik Beasley traded.
Detroit Pistons (-2.5) vs Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have been the worst team in the NBA by most metrics over the past two months and the Pistons are actually playing a bit better with Andre Drummond out of the picture and Reggie Jackson stepping in for D-Rose.
Sacramento Kings (+11.5) at Milwaukee Bucks
The Kings are second in net rating over their last two games and while that’s a small sample size, they may have found something with Nemanja Bjelica at the 5 in small-ball lineups.
Utah Jazz (-1) at Dallas Mavericks
Utah is figuring things out with Mike Conley back in the rotation and the Mavs are badly missing Luka Doncic.
Minnesota Wolves (+10) at Toronto Raptors
The Wolves played inspired ball without D’Angelo Russell in a win over the Clippers Saturday and should have the lefty shooter in the lineup tonight.
Golden State Warriors (+5.5) vs Miami Heat
The Heat simply can’t be trusted on the West Coast until further notice. Especially with team leader Jimmy Butler (shoulder) out.