The 2019-20 NBA season is rolling and we have a huge slate this Friday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA February 7 Best Bets
Miami Heat (+1) at Sacramento Kings
Is Miami on the second half of a B2B set here? No. Is Miami missing its best player in Jimmy Butler (shoulder)? Yes, but this team is deep enough to compensate. Miami is 4-2 without Butler this year and averages 118 PPG versus 111.5 PPG over a much larger sample size with Butler. We’ll see if the Heat can activate Andre Iguodala or Jae Crowder in time for this matchup, but adding a veteran and former finals MVP in Iggy has already galvanized the locker room.
Sacramento is not a formidable opponent by any means, with a 9-15 home record and 3-8 record ATS when listed as a home favorite. The Kings interior defense has been pathetic without Richaun Holmes (shoulder) and they just traded backup center Dewayne Dedmon. If active, Alex Len will be a poor candidate to match up with Miami’s ultra-versatile center Bam Adebayo. Miami couldn’t win at the Clippers without Butler, but is 13-2 ATS after a loss and is 21-6 SU against teams with losing records.
Boston Celtics (-9.5) vs Atlanta Hawks
While the Hawks are a scary team to bet against, they’re usually much more vulnerable on the road. Atlanta coughs up a league-worst 122 PPG and is 9-18 ATS on the road this season. They’re highly unlikely to have Clint Capela (heel) active for this game or probably through the ASB, so that won’t help them exploit Boston’s weakness down low. Atlanta has also been awful in terms of defending paint, allowing the second-most PPG (55.5) down low in road contests.
Boston has ruled out Jaylen Brown (ankle) and Gordon Hayward (foot), but Marcus Smart (quad) and Kemba Walker (knee) are expected to return tonight. Regardless, Boston has shown an ability to keep chugging despite missing key guys recently. The Celtics are 7-1 with the best net rating (11.1) in the NBA over their last 8 and are the second best home team in terms of net rating (7.3) this year. Facing Atlanta for the second time this week and third time in a month should only help Brad Stevens make adjustments and help his team pull away in the second half for another double-digit victory.
Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) at Washington Wizards
The Mavs were overwhelmed without Luka Doncic (ankle) on Wednesday by a talented young Grizzlies squad, resulting in some fantastic value tonight at a much worse Wizards squad. Washington has the worst defensive rating (116.3) with the sixth-worst net rating (-4.8) in home games this season and has lost 4 straight against teams with winning records by an average of 16.3 PPG. Dallas is 8-2-1 ATS as a road favorite, 13-7 SU against the ECF, and 15-4 SU following a loss.
Dallas is still a good team without Doncic and shoots a scorching 39.6% from 3 without its MVP. Kristaps Porzingis (nose) struggled offensively and the Mavs were missing Seth Curry (knee) on Wednesday. Both players should be in the lineup tonight against Washington, which is missing center Thomas Bryant (foot) and just unloaded it’s third-leading scorer (per 36 minutes) in Jordan McRae. Washington might be looking towards tanking the rest of the season and Bradley Beal could throttle down considering he’s been described as “banged up.”
NBA February 7 Picks Against The Spread
Houston Rockets (-2.5) at Phoenix Suns
The Rockets are embracing small ball and have enough wing depth now to compete on both ends of a road B2B set. This is a modest spread considering how poorly Phoenix has played lately.
Portland Blazers (+8.5) at Utah Jazz
With the exception of a blowout loss at red-hot Denver, Portland has been on fire lately. There is no way you should trust a backsliding Jazz team to beat Damian Lillard and company by 9-plus points.
Toronto Raptors (PK) at Indiana Pacers
The Raptors demoralized the Pacers with an improbable late comeback on Wednesday and should ride that momentum into Indiana.
Detroit Pistons (+12.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Pistons actually see a spike in scoring without Andre Drummond, averaging 118 PPG over 4 contests. OKC hasn’t been blowing teams out consistently and could be hard pressed to cover this big number.
Memphis Grizzlies (+5) at Philadelphia 76ers
While the Sixers should turn things around at home, they’ve become one of the least reliable teams in the NBA recently and the Grizzlies are playing inspired ball as they use Iguodala’s spurn for motivation.