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NBA DFS picks

The 2019-20 NBA season is rolling and we have a huge slate this Wednesday.

On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.

Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.

In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.

Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.

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NBA February 5 Best Bets

Denver Nuggets (+8) at Utah Jazz

Confidence: 9.6/10

Betting against the Jazz has been quite profitable over the last week, as the team became overvalued following a great January streak against inferior competition. Utah is heavily favored at home against a Nuggets team that beat them rather decisively last Thursday. The Nuggets are on the second half of a B2B set, but their starters played relatively light minutes in a blowout win over Portland. Jamal Murray (ankle) returned from a 10-game absence to drop 20 points in 20 minutes, so he should be good to go on short rest. 

With Paul Millsap (knee) out, the Nuggets have hit another gear by unlocking PF Jerami Grant. They’re fifth in net rating (10.8) and third in offensive rating (119.9) over their last 4 outings. Utah is 0-4 with a -10 net rating and the fourth-worst defensive rating (120.4) during that span. Mike Conley (hamstring) continues to sputter through an injury-plagued campaign and his presence seems to disrupt the chemistry Utah developed with Joe Ingles running point. Denver is 7-2 with a +3.5 PPG differential on zero days rest this season and 6-5-1 ATS when listed as an underdog. Utah is 5-7-1 ATS with a rest advantage and 3-5 ATS against Northwest Division foes. Most importantly, Utah is still just 9-12 SU against teams with winning records, while Denver is 14-8.

Dallas Mavericks (-5) vs Memphis Grizzlies

Confidence: 9.3/10

The Mavericks are proving that they can stay afloat without Luka Doncic (ankle), as they dispatched the Hawks at home and edged the Pacers in Indiana to move to 4-3 without their star this season. Dallas is spreading the ball around and actually averaging one more 3PTM (16) per game at a deadly 39.6% clip with Doncic out. Kristaps Porzingis has been unleashed and his defensive prowess should be a factor in limiting a Grizzlies team that leads the NBA in PPG (56.4) in the paint. 

Memphis has cooled off considerably over the past two weeks and has been blown out by double digits in 3 of their last 4 road games, the exception coming at MSG against the dysfunctional Knicks. The young Grizzlies are 10-12 SU on the road and just 6-15 against teams with winning records this season. They lost by 16 (138-122) at home to Dallas earlier this season and allowed the Mavs to shoot 18-for-42 (.429%) from 3-point range in that contest. The key stat? Dallas is 7-1 ATS against Southwest Division foes and Memphis is just 3-5 ATS in division games.

Phoenix Suns (-3) at Detroit Pistons

Confidence: 9.2/10

Since the Suns were blown out on Monday in Brooklyn after predictably getting pasted in Milwaukee, we seem to be getting extra value as they prepare for a much easier road test. The Pistons are 10-16 ATS at home and 18-33-1 ATS overall this season. They’re just 2-6 SU without Derrick Rose (groin) this season and he’s slated to rest tonight as trade rumors swirl. Markieff Morris (hip) and sharpshooter Svi Mykhailiuk (hip) are also expected to sit, but the bigger loss is clearly Rose, and the message to Detroit’s younger players is clear as the front office shops their best players ahead of the deadline. 

The Suns are 15-11 SU against teams with losing records. They’re 14-10 ATS on the road and had impressive road victories at Boston, San Antonio, and Dallas before sputtering in Brooklyn. Devin Booker is still out for revenge after his all-star snub, and he’ll get a great opportunity tonight against a Pistons team that allows the third-most 3PTM (10.9) and fifth-most FTM (16) per game. Booker averaged 31.5 PPG on 53.7% FG shooting with a whopping 37.1% usage rate in two meetings with Detroit last season.


NBA February 5 Picks Against The Spread

Toronto Raptors (-6) vs Indiana Pacers

Confidence: 8/10

The Pacers have dropped 4 of their last 5 road games against “quality” opponents with a -14.6 PPG differential in those games, while Toronto has won 11 straight and 4 straight home games over Indy.

Golden State Warriors (+8) at Brooklyn Nets

Confidence: 7.5/10

The Warriors are getting great performances from their young corps and this would be a revenge spot for D’Angelo Russell if he’s active the night before the trade deadline.

Atlanta Hawks (+6) at Minnesota Wolves

Confidence: 7.2/10

The Wolves might be able to snap their 11-game losing streak tonight, but still should have to work in a close game against the surging Hawks.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-12) vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Confidence: 7/10

The Cavs are coughing up 127.5 PPG over their last 4 losses and will be without Tristan Thompson tonight. 

Los Angeles Clippers (-7) vs Miami Heat

Confidence: 6.8/10

Miami continues to pull out dominant wins at home before flat performances on the road. The Clippers seem to be hitting their stride with Paul George healthy.

Orlando Magic (+7.5) at Boston Celtics

Confidence: 6.5/10

The Celtics may struggle without Daniel Theis (ankle), Kemba Walker (knee), and Marcus Smart (quad), giving Orlando an opportunity to at least keep this one close.