nfl betting

Welcome to the Pennsylvania Sports Betting Brief for Super Bowl LIV. In this column, we’ll review some recent sports betting news in the Keystone State and spotlight some potentially advantageous betting opportunities as well.

The biggest single day on the sports betting calendar has finally arrived. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs face off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL on Sunday in what many consider to be a legitimate matchup of the two best teams in the NFL this past season. We’ll look at what some of Pennsylvania’s leading regulated sportsbooks have in store for their customers on Super Sunday, followed by a prognostication on the game and a few interesting game props.

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Pennsylvania Sports Betting Industry News

PA sportsbooks roll out promos for Super Bowl Sunday

Keystone State residents wishing to get some action in on Super Bowl LIV will have considerably more legal, regulated options than for last year’s Patriots-Rams showdown. Unsurprisingly, some of Pennsylvania’s leading mobile sportsbooks will also have some specials for the state’s bettors.

  • FOX Bet is offering “Bet Boosts” on a wide array of prop bets and parlay prop bets at both the individual player level and team level.
  • Rivers Casino has similar promotions. The sportsbook’s “Big Game LIV Specials” include Game Props and Team/Player Props. Additionally, Rivers is offering a Big Game 54 Deposit Match promotion. Customers making a single Super Bowl LIV wager of certain amounts on any of a list of specified bets will earn a $5 or $10 free bet with Rivers for another sport.

This Week’s Best Bets at PA Sportsbooks

Super Bowl LIV

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Sun., February 2nd, 6:30 p.m. ET

Matchups between high-octane offenses and true shutdown defenses are always fascinating to watch. This season, we’re lucky enough to have just that type of set-up for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the fourth-most total yards per game (382.1). Meanwhile, the 49ers yielded the second-fewest yards per contest (277.4).

The battle between the KC offense and the San Fran defense can be further whittled down to a true strength vs. strength tussle when considering the most effective parts of each unit. Kansas City finished with the fourth-most passing yards per contest this past regular season, racking up 288.3 per game. In turn, the Niners surrendered an absurd, league-low 165.6 yards through the air per regular-season tilt.

The best matchup on paper in this contest is the 49ers’ productive running attack against the Chiefs’ questionable run defense. San Francisco finished with the second-most rushing yards per game (145.1) during the regular season. Their figure was tops in the NFC and trailed only the Lamar Jackson-helmed Ravens rushing attack leaguewide. The Niners’ offensive line also generated the fifth-most running back yards per carry (4.8). Conversely, the Chiefs allowed 128.2 rushing yards per contest and the fourth-most RB yards per rush (4.9).

Ultimately, I see both teams’ offenses settling in as the game goes on and finding some weaknesses to exploit in the opposing defense. The Niners’ secondary is legitimate, but Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, among others, are too talented to be held down for four quarters. For their part, the Niners should be able to control the clock for stretches with its impressive three-headed backfield of Raheem Mostert, Tevn Coleman and Matt Breida. I envision each team getting into the 20s as far as their respective point totals.

I lean toward the Chiefs’ offense having just enough firepower to outlast and outscore San Francisco in what should be a tightly contested battle for 60 minutes.

The Lean: Chiefs -1.5

Super LIV Props To Consider

KC Chiefs moneyline and Over 54.5 points (+230 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Based on my belief the Chiefs will prevail and the Over will hit in this game, I like the price on this prop. As mentioned above, both teams should be able to rack up points in the 20s. The Chiefs also saw a total of eight of their games (including both playoff games) hit or exceed 55 points. Meanwhile, the 49ers saw four of their contests go over that threshold.

Any Time TD Scorer- Patrick Mahomes (+420 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mahomes has three rushing scores over his last seven games, with the most recent coming against the Titans in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the 49ers have an excellent pass defense that can make things particularly tough near the end zone, which could lead to Mahomes turning to the ground when close to the goal line. San Francisco also somewhat surprisingly allowed 5.2 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns to QBs this past season.

Tyreek Hill To Record 80 or more receiving yards and a touchdown (+230 at Rivers Casino)

Hill has only exceeded 80 receiving yards in three of 14 total games (including playoffs) this season, but he also between 72 and 76 yards on three other occasions during the regular season. His ability to hit this mark on just one play is naturally above question, given his world-class speed. Then, Hill has totaled nine touchdowns between the regular season and postseason (two TDs vs. Titans in AFC Championship Game) and the 49ers finished the regular season ranked in the bottom half of the league with 17 receiving touchdowns allowed.

Patrick Mahomes 50+ Rush Yards and Chiefs win (+400 at FOX Bet)

As already mentioned, the 49ers were actually vulnerable to running quarterbacks to an extent this season. Moreover, Mahomes comes in having rushed for over 50 yards in each of his two playoff games. He also exceeded the mark in two regular-season contests. While the 50-yard milestone isn’t exactly a cinch to reach, the price on this prop and the supporting stats cited make it worthy of consideration.