The Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) and San Francisco 49ers (15-3) face off at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 2 in Super Bowl 54 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
The Chiefs are either 1 or 1.5-point favorites at sportsbooks across the US, depending on where you look. There are countless proposition bets available on those books, and many Super Bowl watch parties are running prop pools to spice up the action. We’ll talk about the best strategy to win those pools below.
Of course, there are also the Super Bowl Squares pools that come down to nothing but luck, but we’ll cover the odds of each number in this column to help you set your expectations.
Super Bowl Squares
A Super Bowl Squares contests offers participants a chance to buy into a prize pool with payouts corresponding to the score after each half or quarter of the big game.
Participants don’t usually get to choose their numbers. Rather, the numbers are usually assigned at random and revealed on a spreadsheet or board right before action starts. The board is usually a 10-by-10 grid that shows numbers 0-9 listed across the top and 0-9 listed down the left rail.
At the end of each quarter, or after each score (depending on the rules of your pool), the final two digits of the Chiefs and 49ers scores will pay out to the corresponding square.
For example, if the score is 7-3 San Francisco after the first quarter, the square that intersects 7 on the top rail and 3 on the side rail will be named the winner and given a portion of the winnings. The process repeats each quarter, with the final score sometimes earning a bigger payout.
While participants can’t choose their numbers, there are much better odds involved in getting action on the “7” or “0” columns since those are the most frequent NFL scores. Other desirable numbers are “3”, “4” and “1” with “9”, “8”, and “5” statistically offering the worst odds.
Super Bowl Prop Pools
Prop Pools can test the predictive skills of fans rather than awarding prizes based on blind luck.
With over 600 proposition bets available at most sportsbooks for the Super Bowl, these pools can offer participants a chance to pick anywhere from 10 to 100 possible outcomes. Points are awarded for each correct answer and the participant who picks the most props correctly will win the pool.
The best way to strategize in a large prop pool is to think about how game flow might correspond to the outcome of each prop.
For example, if Raheem Mostert goes Over his prop of 77.5 rushing yards, the Niners have likely controlled the action and likely led throughout most of the Super Bowl. That makes it less likely for Damien Williams to exceed his rushing prop (50.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook) since the Chiefs have likely been forced to throw more often. If you predict that sort of game flow, Patrick Mahomes is more likely to gov Over his props of 23.5 completions and/or 299.5 passing yards.
Conversely, if Mahomes throws for over 300 yards, Jimmy Garoppolo is likely attempting more passes with a better chance to get over his props.
Game flow can affect every prop down to the “who scores last” question, so try to gain an idea of how you think the Super Bowl will play out before you answer all the props listed in your pool.
FanDuel is offering a free Props pool this year. Participants can make their picks and create or join a group, then assign their own prizes and entry fee for payouts. Picks on the 15 props can be edited until kickoff time. PLAY FOR FREE HERE!