The 2019-20 NBA season is rolling and we have a huge slate this Tuesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA January 28 Best Bets
Miami Heat (-1.5) vs Boston Celtics
Miami opened as 3-point favorites and early action on the Celtics has moved this closer to a pick’em line. The Heat have certainly struggled on B2B sets, but this one is all at home, where they’re a whopping 21-2 straight up and 16-6-1 ATS this season. Miami’s key players didn’t have to do much heavy lifting in a blowout win over Orlando last night, with Jimmy Butler going 7-for-11 over a light 30 minutes of work. Butler carried the Heat with 37 points in a loss to the Celtics earlier this season, and now looks to lead his young team in a statement win.
The Celtics have been feast or famine over the past couple of weeks and mostly struggled on the road. They’re 1-4 ATS and have a rough -4.7 net rating over their last 5 road games. Their production down low has dropped with Enes Kanter (hip) out and while Daniel Theis has been good, he should struggle to match the athleticism of ultra-versatile center Bam Adebayo. Miami ranks third in fastbreak PPG (11.9) allowed, first in total RPG, and first in opponent’s 3-point shooting (32.8%) this season. Boston depends on fastbreak scoring (6th in PPG) and has become very dependent on 3-point shooting an inconsistent January.
Golden State Warriors (+13) at Philadelphia 76ers
This line seems to be accounting for Philadelphia’s performance at home all season without considering the absence of Joel Embiid (finger) and Josh Richardson (hamstring). Philly remains competitive without those starters, but has a modest +2.8 PPG differential over it’s last 8 contests. The Sixers have scored the fewest PPG (36) in the paint over their last 3 contests and are coughing up 50 PPG in the paint during that span.
With Draymond Green active and the more versatile Marquese Chriss back in the rotation over traded center Willie Cauley-Stein, the Warriors are better equipped to handle Philly’s lengthy lineups. D’Angelo Russell also gives the Dubs a much better chance to keep pace offensively. Russell averaged 21 PPG on 47.4% FG shooting over 4 meetings with the 76ers last season and is heating up with averages of 26 PPG and 7.1 APG on a 32% usage rate in January. The Warriors are 6-7 ATS when facing ECF foes and are capable of covering this lofty number against a shorthanded team.
New Orleans Pelicans (-8) at Cleveland Cavaliers
After the Cavs steamrolled the Pistons on Monday night, they’ve opened as marginal 6.5-point underdogs against a far superior Pelicans team. That number has already been bet up a bit and could rise higher, so get your money in on sooner than later. Cleveland is obviously unlikely to shoot 50% from the floor again, and the Cavs are just 6-17 straight up and 8-14-1 ATS at home this year. They’re also 4-6-1 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage and have a -10.8 PPG differential when playing on 0 days rest.
The Cavs rank 29th in defensive rating and are allowing the second-most PPG (51.7) in the paint in home games. But this more about where the Pelicans are in terms of becoming a playoff team in the West. New Orleans is 5-2 ATS despite playing a brutal schedule the past two weeks. When Zion Williamson is out there, the Pels have become even more efficient offensively, but they don’t lose a bet with Jaxson Hayes or Derrick Favors down low. Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram are scoring over 20 points per 36 and Lonzo Ball has kept the offense humming with a 109 offensive rating this season. Their advantage on the wing and in the backcourt should allow the Pels to blow past the tired Cavs.
NBA January 28 Picks Against The Spread
Milwaukee Bucks (-16) vs Washington Wizards
The Wizards could get shut down offensively in this bout, so you could parlay the Under (241) with a Bucks cover.
Phoenix Suns (+7) at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have been able to win on the second half of B2B sets, but have not covered lately, and Devin Booker is on fire for the Suns.
Memphis Grizzlies (-1) vs Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are a flawed defensive team right now and the Grizzlies offense has been unstoppable with the exception of their blowout loss at Boston last Wednesday.
Atlanta Hawks (+12) at Toronto Raptors
While the Raptors have won 9 straight in this matchup, Trae Young ensured that the Hawks only lost by 3 and 5 points in last year’s meetings.
Charlotte Hornets (-2) vs New York Knicks
The Hornets have lost 6 straight and will take this golden opportunity to snap the skid at home.