The 2019-20 NBA season is rolling and we have a huge slate this Monday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA January 27 Best Bets
Dallas Mavericks (-1) at Oklahoma City Thunder
Backing the Mavs has been a very profitable enterprise this season thanks to the consistent performance of Luka Doncic. Dallas has the second-best record ATS (13-5-2) on the road and is 5-1-1 ATS over its last 7 outings, as they’ve righted the ship while getting Kristaps Porzingis (knee) back in the lineup.
OKC has also been dynamite against the spread with 5 straight wins and covers, but the Thunder is just 7-13 straight up against teams with winning records. Prior to that 5-game stretch, the Thunder was beaten pretty handily by the Heat and Raptors. While OKC has managed to hang on against some good teams by playing great fourth quarter defense, the Mavs are also tough down the stretch with the seventh fewest PPG (26.7) allowed in fourth quarters. Dallas has been the most efficient offensive team on the road by far over the past week and has a trump card in Doncic.
Minnesota Wolves (-3.5) vs Sacramento Kings
The Wolves are playing much better ball right now and have nothing to show for it thanks to their brutally difficult schedule. Things should turn around tonight against a Kings team that ranks 27th in offensive rating (103.2) with a -7.9 net rating over their last 4 contests. Sacramento’s offense is even less potent on the road during that span and the Kings are 5-14 ATS since the middle of December.
Minnesota also has a poor record ATS recently, but has been getting great PG play from Shabazz Napier since trading Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins is also finding his rhythm on the perimeter. With Karl-Anthony Towns back, the Wolves average the third-most PPG (55.3) in the paint over their last 3 and the Kings are struggling to protect the paint with Richaun Holmes (shoulder) inactive. The Kings broke their losing streak in a low-scoring slugfest at Chicago Friday, but the Wolves should outpace them tonight.
Utah Jazz (-12.5) vs Houston Rockets
James Harden (thigh) sat out Sunday’s 117-110 loss at Denver and is expected to miss the second half of a B2B set tonight in Utah. Since the Jazz are red hot, Mike D’Antoni has chosen to basically throw in the towel by resting Russell Westbrook in this matchup as well. The Rockets might have been able to survive the absence of one star, but are now left with Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, and Chris Clemons are their primary playmakers.
Even with Harden and Westbrook in the lineup, the Rockets are 2-3 with a -5.3 net rating over their last five road games. Utah is 5-0 with a league-best 121.6 offensive rating and 19.8 net rating over its last five home games, so its fair to expect a runaway victory for the Jazz. Utah has covered in 9 straight home games and won by double digits in 6 straight at home prior to Saturday’s closer game against Dallas.
NBA January 27 Picks Against The Spread
San Antonio Spurs (-2) at Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were just held to 81 points by the measly Kings and the Spurs offense is capable of dwarfing that number tonight.
Orlando Magic (+5) at Miami Heat
The Heat could surprise with a lackluster effort as they look ahead towards Tuesday’s showdown with the Celtics.
Detroit Pistons (-7) vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Derrick Rose keeps the Pistons offense on time and their young frontcourt is athletic enough to stop Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson down low.