The Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) and San Francisco 49ers (15-3) face off at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 2 in Super Bowl 54 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years, while the Niners last appeared in the big game in 2013.
The Chiefs are either 1 or 1.5-point favorites at sportsbooks across the US, depending on where you look. There are countless proposition bets available on those books, including novelty props such as how long the national anthem will last and what color of Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach.
But we’re dealing with probabilities, and in this article, we highlight the five best proposition bets to consider for Super Bowl 54.
Five Best Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54
Raheem Mostert Anytime Scorer (-145 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Niners have not had consistent success in the red zone this year and don’t seem to trust Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball into tight windows. If they get down inside the 10-yard line, Kyle Shanahan is almost certainly going to want Mostert handling the ball in this matchup. The Chiefs ranked 29th in DVOA rush defense this year and have coughed up a rushing TD in 3 straight games.
Tevin Coleman (arm) was already taking a back seat to Mostert, who is averaging over 6 YPC while playing on over 54% of snaps since Week 12. Even if Coleman is active, there should be little doubt as to who will get the ball in short-yardage situations. Mostert has a 53% success rate on runs this the season per Football Outsiders, and has produced 5 TDs off his last 7 touches inside the 10-yard line.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
We’re playing the odds with this pick, but you could definitely hedge by taking Mahomes Over 1.5 TD passes at -260 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The 49ers are certainly a stout defensive team, but it would rather shocking if they keep Mahomes from throwing 2 TD passes, which he’s done in 4 of his last 5 starts. Mahomes has tossed 3 or more TDs in 5 starts, including both of his postseason starts this year, and he’s been lethal in the red zone throughout his minimal playoff experience.
The Niners have actually allowed 2 passing TDs in 4 of their last 5 games and coughed up 5 passing TDs to Drew Brees in a shootout at the Superdome. Playing at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami offers a similar advantage for Mahomes and his speedy receivers. With a hefty projected total (54.5) for this Super Bowl, there should be plenty of opportunities for Mahomes to flash his magic in the red zone.
Jimmy Garoppolo Highest Completion Percentage (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
While Mahomes should see far more volume than Jimmy Garoppolo on Super Bowl Sunday, Jimmy G figures to be the more efficient passer. The Niners have made their QB more of a game manager in recent weeks and are only giving Garoppolo high percentage throws. He’s completing 71.4% of his passes in two playoff games plus the finale against the Seahawks that was effectively a playoff game.
Mahomes has only completed over 70% of his passes twice since returning from his knee sprain in Week 10. The nature of Kansas City’s offense simply dictates that he takes shots down the field or throws the ball away when it’s not there. Garoppolo led all QBs with a 55.6% completion rate on deep balls this year, indicating the high percentage looks that Shanahan’s offense provides when the Niners decide to test the defense.
Robbie Gould Most Kicking Points (-106 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s circle back to what is one of the most critical stats to examine ahead of the Super Bowl: The Niners converted 53.7% of red zone opportunities this year into TDs, which ranked 21st in the league. The Chiefs were only marginally better over the course of the season, but their red zone efficiency has ramped up lately, leading to just 2 Harrison Butker FGs over their last 3 wins. Robbie Gould is 5-for-5 on FGA this postseason and 15-for-16 since returning from injury in Week 11. The Niners should move the ball against Kansas City’s poor rushing defense, but may struggle to finish in the red area.
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions (+108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yes, it’s redundant to take two different props on Mahomes, but we’re looking for reliable options here and that means targeting a player who will have the ball in his hands more than anyone else. Mahomes has completed 23 passes in consecutive playoff games and is averaging 34.5 attempts per game this season (including his injury-shortened start at Denver in Week 7).
The way San Francisco’s games have played out, opposing passers have racked up completions down the stretch. Here is the recent completion totals for QBs facing the 49ers: 31, 21, 25, 27, 25, 29. The Niners allowed the fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards (34) this year and that forces QBs to check the ball down, which is great news if you took a prop bet on that QB racking up completions.