The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will do battle in Super Bowl LIV Sunday, Feb. 2, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Fla. Every year the Super Bowl brings with it a bevy of betting options unique to the big game. Below, we’ll break down the betting odds among the favorites and longshots at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook and make our picks to be named the MVP of Super Bowl LIV.
Since 2000, 12 quarterbacks have been named Super Bowl MVP. Four wide receivers have taken the honor, including New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman in Super Bowl LIII. Three linebackers and one safety have taken home the award. No running back has won since former Denver Broncos RB Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. He had to rush for 157 yards and three touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers to get the honors. In the last 20 Super Bowls, Patriots QB Tom Brady was crowned MVP four times, with former New York Giants QB Eli Manning taking home the award twice as the only other multi-time winner in that span.
The 49ers-Chiefs matchup in Super Bowl LIV will provide us with a first-time winner with the vast majority of the players on the field participating in their first Super Bowl. Here’s a look at the chances of the favorites, as well as a few value picks who could shine in this year’s big game.
Super Bowl LIV MVP: The Quarterbacks
Reigning NFL MVP QB Patrick Mahomes is the clear betting favorite at both sportsbooks. He is +115 at DraftKings and +110 at FanDuel, while 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is +240 at FanDuel and +225 at DraftKings. The odds are not only reflective of Mahomes’ status as the reigning MVP, but of the Chiefs being favored by both books to win the game. The two look to follow the trend of a quarterback winning the award. Twenty-nine of the 53 Super Bowl MVPs to date have been quarterbacks.
Mahomes has been fantastic through two postseason games. He has completed 46 of 70 passes for 615 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 106 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Garoppolo has had to do much less in getting his 49ers to Miami. He has completed 17 of just 27 pass attempts for 208 yards and one touchdown with a pick. Garoppolo will need to truly impress in order to earn his trip to Disney World.
Between the two quarterbacks, give me Mahomes (+115 at DraftKings). We’ll find better value among some more interesting options further down the board.
Super Bowl LIV MVP: Non-QBs
Players will be mentioned with their more profitable odds between DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD)
Both passing offenses run through the tight ends. As such, 49ers TE George Kittle (+1700 FD) and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (+2000 DraftKings) are among the non-QB favorites. 49ers RB Raheem Mostert (+900 DraftKings) is another heavy favorite priced right behind the QBs. Based on the lack of recent winners from his position, this is a bet to avoid.
In this top tier, I’m looking at 49ers WR Emmanuel Sanders (+4500 DraftKings) and Kelce. Sanders, a trade-deadline acquisition from the Broncos, caught 36 of 53 targets for 502 yards and three touchdowns following the trade. He has caught two of just three targets for 33 yards this postseason. Sanders is one of the few star players in this game with Super Bowl experience. He caught six of eight targets for 83 yards while playing with the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 against the Carolina Panthers.
Kelce has been the biggest beneficiary of Mahomes’ postseason push. He has caught 13 of 16 targets for 164 yards and three touchdowns through two games, though most of his production came against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. He’s the Chiefs’ top red-zone threat and carries the potential of a multi-score game which could make him the first tight end to ever win the award.
Super Bowl LIV MVP: Longshots
Moving on to players priced at +5000 or higher, give me Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu (+6000 DraftKings). The versatile ballhawk has the potential for multiple takeaways in the game, either via interception or fumble. He could feast on Garoppolo’s lack of big-game experience and rust as a result of a quiet postseason.
Sticking on defense, I’m also backing 49ers CB Richard Sherman (+8500 FanDuel). He has Super Bowl experience and has the notoriety and name value to already be in the minds of voters heading into the game. He’s coming off an interception against Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship and recorded three in the regular season, with one returned for a touchdown.
The darkest horse I’ll be backing for Super Bowl LIV MVP is 49ers RB Matt Breida (+10000 DraftKings). He’s just +5500 at FD, representing tremendous value at nearly double the odds at DraftKings. He has had a quiet postseason while taking a backseat to Tevin Coleman in the Divisional Round and Mostert in the NFC Championship. Coleman is dealing with a dislocated shoulder suffered in the NFC title game, meaning Breida could see some extra work at Hard Rock Stadium. He’s a dual-threat who totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns last season, before battling injuries this year and falling behind the recently-signed Coleman and upstart Mostert.
With the 49ers likely to pass more against the high-powered Chiefs offense, Breida could take control of the backfield timeshare.
For more information and history of the Super Bowl MVP, check out TheLines.com.