Super Bowl LIV is set for Sunday, Feb. 2, as the San Francisco 49ers will face the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Here at PlayPicks, we have you covered with all your NFL betting and single-game fantasy needs for 2020’s big game, and we’re looking at the best Super Bowl DFS picks for the Showdown slates at DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Chiefs and 49ers rank first and second, respectively, among playoff teams with 43 and 32 points per game. Both sides have played just two games following a first-round bye. San Francisco ranked second in the regular season with 29.9 points per game. Kansas City (28.2 PPG) was fifth in the regular season. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs and Niners ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in points against per game. There’s plenty of top-end talent on both sides of the Super Bowl LIV matchup, but who’ll breakthrough as the low-owned star of DFS lineups?
Super Bowl DFS: Top GPP values
Here’s a look at some of the top DFS value picks at DraftKings and FanDuel for Super Bowl LIV.
49ers RB Matt Breida
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has used his backfield timeshare to perfection through two games. Both Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert rushed for over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in separate games. Shanahan still has one more ace up his sleeve, however, as Breida has totaled just 19 rushing yards on nine carries. The third-year back topped 1,000 scrimmage yards with five total touchdowns last season. He totaled 743 yards and two scores over 13 games this year while battling injuries.
Coleman will be at less than full health for Super Bowl LIV after dislocating his shoulder in the NFC Championship. A few extra snaps should be expected for Breida, and his dual-threat abilities make him a dangerous option all over the field.
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman
Hardman’s salary is so low it seems like a trap set by the DFS sites to boost his ownership. The second-round rookie has caught three of just five targets for 27 yards through two playoff games. He totaled 538 yards and six touchdowns on 26 receptions in the regular season.
Hardman’s a big-play threat who has the added chance of production in the return game. He had one kick return touchdown in the regular season, and he has racked up 228 yards on 10 attempts this postseason, including a 58-yard return in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. He won’t rack up a ton of receptions, but he’ll only need the ball in his hands once or twice for a game-changing performance.
49ers WR Kendrick Bourne
Bourne is a favorite tool of Shanahan and QB Jimmy Garoppolo in the red zone. The 6-foot-1, 203-pound receiver caught 30 of 44 targets for 358 yards and five touchdowns this season, after going for 42-487-4 in 2018. All five of his touchdowns this year came on six red-zone targets, leading his team in scores inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. He scored the game’s opening touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round
Chiefs RB Darwin Thompson
Thompson is the riskiest option mentioned here, which could make him the best of our five GPP selections. The rookie has played just 12 offensive snaps through two postseason games, and he has just one seven-yard carry and one target. That said, veteran RB LeSean McCoy has been a healthy scratch of late, leaving Thompson as the backup to Damien Williams. He’s just one early injury away from suddenly having a significant role in Super Bowl LIV.
The 22-year-old totaled 128 rushing yards and a touchdown, with 43 receiving yards over 12 regular-season games. He has dual-threat abilities and would get plenty of work if something were to happen to Williams.
49ers K Robbie Gould
Rostering a kicker in Showdown slates is a strategy only for the bold. It’s even truer in Super Bowl LIV, with the 49ers and Chiefs ranking second and fourth, respectively, in field-goal attempts against this season. The Niners gave up just 1.2 FG tries per game. The Chiefs allowed 1.6 attempts per game.
Gould is cheaper than Chiefs K Harrison Butker on both DFS sites. He has made seven extra points and five field goals this postseason. He hasn’t missed a PAT since Week 15, and he has made 14 straight FG tries since Week 13. The Chiefs allowed a touchdown on just 51.56% of their opponents’ red-zone visits and the Niners scored touchdowns on just 54.29% of their RZ visits to rank 21st in the NFL. Gould could get some early gimmes if the Niners struggle to punch the ball into the end zone against a Chiefs D-line which held Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry to 69 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship.
DraftKings Showdown lineup strategy
DraftKings’ Captain Mode features a six-player lineup. The Captain, which can be selected from anyone in the player pool, will cost 1.5 times their standard DFS salary, but they’ll accrue 1.5 times as many fantasy points. The remaining five players in a lineup are all deemed FLEX options and can be chosen independently of their on-field positions. For example, a Captain can be a running back with the remaining five options being wide receivers. A lineup can be made featuring six receivers; both starting quarterbacks and a mix of running backs and receivers; or both kickers, both quarterbacks and both defenses.
The Captain slot is the main differentiator in lineup construction, as all fantasy managers have access to the entire player pool. While quarterbacks have the highest upside for total fantasy points, they can become cost-prohibitive at 1.5 times their salary. Slotting in a cheaper receiver or running back as the captain and saving both QBs for FLEX spots can lead to greater success as it allows for a more star-studded lineup. With a QB in the Captain position, fantasy managers are forced to look for value elsewhere and risk having less productive players in their lineup.
If you’re considering rostering Hardman (mentioned above) think strongly about pairing him with the Chiefs D/ST. Should he return a kick or punt for a touchdown, both he and the D/ST will accrue points. If rostering the Chiefs D/ST ($4,500) you shouldn’t be including Garoppolo and vice versa, as points from one would likely detract from the other.
FanDuel lineup strategy
Other than the Captain spot being exchanged for an MVP, the biggest difference with FanDuel’s Showdown game is the five-man lineup. Player salaries also remain the same regardless of whether they’re the MVP or in an AnyFlex spot. The MVP still receives the 1.5 points multiplier. D/STs are not available on FanDuel.