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nfl week 7 ats picks

Welcome to the NFC Championship Game betting breakdown, where I’ll provide a betting overview of the upcoming NFC Championship Game utilizing moneyline, points spread, and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, I’ll hone in on at least one player or game prop each week that I feel has profit potential at one of those two sportsbooks.

All betting takes will be classified as either a “lean” or a “pick.” A lean is a wager that we have a determined degree of certainty. However, it’s one that still falls somewhere short of a high-confidence selection. A pick carries an additional degree of confidence based on a variety of factors. These include relevant injuries, the past track records for certain conditions and bet types, and team performances leading up to the game.

For more detailed information on this week’s matchup, including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Packers vs. 49ers NFC Championship Betting Preview over at TheLines.

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Packers at 49ers moneyline

The outlook for any offense that goes into Levi’s Stadium this season has generally been bleak. One that funnels the overwhelming majority of its action through one running back and one receiver is likely to be in even more dire straits. That’s the reality the Packers are faced with in this NFC Championship Game matchup. The results of that narrow distribution of touches against an elite defense in a Week 12 matchup between these teams was far from pretty. San Francisco demolished the Packers by a 37-8 score. They limited Green Bay’s offense to 198 total net yards. That figure included a jaw-dropping 81 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers with a healthy Davante Adams at his disposal.

The 49ers’ pass defense has suffocated opposing passing attacks at home like no other team this season and postseason. Kirk Cousins was limited to 172 passing yards and 5.9 yards per attempt in the Vikings’ divisional-round loss Saturday. Consider that Cousins at least had Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook to ostensibly keep the defense honest. Rodgers has less cumulative weaponry at his disposal in the form of Aaron Jones and Adams. That’s all that he can realistically count on game to game.

Moreover, it’s not as if Green Bay can turn to the ground attack for relief. While the 49ers gave up the occasional long run during the regular season while prioritizing the pass rush, there seemed to be no such holes in their game Saturday. San Fran brought down its rushing yards allowed per home game down to 99.1 yards per contest after limiting Cook to 18 yards on nine carries.

On the 49ers side, Jimmy Garoppolo could have a chance to shed the shackles that led to him putting up just 19 pass attempts against the Vikings. Unless game script unfolds in similar fashion, we could see the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle get much more involved Sunday. Green Bay has allowed 233.0 passing yards per road contest. Garoppolo contributed to those numbers by throwing for 253 yards, along with a pair of touchdowns, in the regular-season meeting against the Pack.

It’s hard to know if Tevin Coleman‘s 22-105-2 line versus Minnesota will mean anything this coming Sunday. The Niners’ backfield usage has been tough to figure out all season. But the combined efforts of Coleman, Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida were good enough to generate 148.1 rushing yards per home game this season, third highest in the league.

The Pick: 49ers moneyline (-345 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Packers at 49ers point spread

Early money has already started to come in abundantly on the 49ers, with the line having moved up to 7.5 in San Fran’s favor from an opening of 6.5 late Sunday night. The Niners’ dominant performance both Saturday and against the Packers earlier in the season are likely playing a significant factor.

The Packers are 11-6 (64.7 percent) against the spread this regular season and postseason, including 5-3 (62.5 percent) as an away team.

The 49ers are 10-6-1 (62.5 percent) against the spread this regular season and postseason, including 4-4-1 (42.9 percent) as a home team.

Rodgers is the X-factor in this game and certainly has the ability to help keep it close for an extended period. However, the problem for this year’s Packers is the aforementioned lack of reliable secondary receivers. As such, I lean toward the 49ers eventually pulling away sufficiently to cover the elevated number.

The Lean: 49ers -7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Packers at 49ers over/under (total)

Both defenses are formidable. Yet the 49ers’ unit is simply on another level. That’s particularly true on their home field. Their assignment Sunday is tough, considering the talent of Rodgers, Jones and Adams. Yet the issue for the Packers will likely be finding a way to forge multiple sustained drives with just three bona fide weapons.

The Over is 7-10 (41.2 percent) in the Packers’ games this season and postseason, including 3-5 (37.5 percent) in their away games.

Then, the Over is 8-8-1 (53.3 percent) in the 49ers’ games this season and postseason, including 5-4 (55.6 percent) in their home games.

Both defenses will naturally be honed in. Neither offense should be able to consistently drive down the field on the other team’s unit. Rodgers isn’t the type of quarterback to set the opposing team up with easy points via turnovers very often, either. As such, as I see the Under prevailing in this spot.

The Pick: Under 45 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best prop bet for Packers vs. 49ers

49ers moneyline and Under 45.5 points parlay: (+148 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Given my belief in a 49ers win and the Under prevailing, I like this particular parlay wager. As noted earlier, San Francisco already lambasted the Packers at Levi’s Stadium once this season. The Niners have also been mostly dominant on defense at home. Then, the Packers saw the Under hit more often than not in its road games.

49ers -7.5 and Under 45.5 points parlay: (+270 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Any Time TD scorer: Aaron Jones (+125 at FanDuel Sportsbook)/Aaron Rodgers (+800 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This article was originally published Wednesday. Odds subject to change.